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September 16, 2024
Sesa Sen, NDTV Profit
16 September 2024
As India’s economy grows and digital technologies reshape consumer behavior, the future of kirana stores—the quintessential neighbourhood grocery shops—hangs precariously in the balance.
These soap-to-staple sellers, once impervious to change, now confront an existential threat from quick commerce players like Blinkit, Instamart, Zepto, and from modern retailers such as DMart and Star Bazaar, raising a pivotal question: Can kiranas survive the pressure of change, or will they die a slow death?
The All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation, that represents four lakh packaged goods distributors and stockists, has recently raised alarms, urging Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal to investigate the unchecked proliferation of quick commerce platforms and its potential ramifications for small traders.
Their concerns are not unfounded. Data suggests that the share of modern retail, including online commerce, which is currently below 10%, is set to cross 30% over the next 3-5 years. Much of this growth will come at the cost of traditional retail.
“Unless the government takes on an activist role to support the smallest of business owners, the shift toward large corporate formats is inevitable,” according to Devangshu Dutta, head of retail consultancy Third Eyesight.
Casualties Of The Boom
Madan Sachdev, a second-generation grocer operating Vandana Stores in eastern Delhi, has thrived in the recent years, adapting to the digital age by taking orders via WhatsApp and employing extra hands for home delivery.
Despite having weathered the storm of competition from giants like Amazon and BigBazaar, he now finds himself disheartened, as his monthly sales have halved to about Rs 30,000, all thanks to quick commerce.
Sachdev is worried about meeting expenses such as rent, his children’s education, and other household bills. He finds himself at a crossroads, uncertain about how to modernise his store or adopt new-age strategies in order to attract customers in an increasingly competitive market.
India’s $600 billion grocery market, a cornerstone for quick commerce, is largely dominated by more than 13 million local mom-and-pop stores.
Retailers like Sachdev are also seeing a steep decline in their profit margins from FMCG companies, which now hover around 10-12%, down from the 18-20% margins seen before the Covid-19 pandemic. The consumer goods companies are instead offering higher margins to quick commerce platforms so that they can afford the price tags.
Quick deliveries account for $5 billion, or 45%, of the country’s $11 billion online grocery market, according to Goldman Sachs. It is projected to capture 70% of the online grocery market, forecasted to grow to $60 billion by 2030, as consumers increasingly prioritise convenience and speed.
Many of the mom-and-pop shops are family-run and have been in business for generations. Yet they lack the resources to modernise and compete effectively with larger chains. Modern retail businesses, including quick commerce, begin with significantly more capital, thanks to funding from corporate investors, venture capital, private equity, and public markets.
“They can scale quickly and capture market share due to a superior product-service mix, larger infrastructure, and more robust business processes,” said Dutta.
Moreover, their ability to engage in price competition poses a challenge for small retailers and distributors, making it difficult for them to compete.
“This is something that has happened worldwide, in the largest markets, and I don’t think India will be an exception,” Dutta said, adding that it would be incomplete to single out a specific format of corporate business such as quick commerce as the sole villain in this situation.
“India is a tough, friction-laden environment at any given point in time, including government processes which don’t make it any easier,” he said.
Peer Pressure
Data from research firm Kantar shows that general trade, which comprises kirana and paan-beedi shops, have grown 4.2% on a 12-month basis in June, while quick commerce grew 29% during the same period.
Shoppers are becoming more omnichannel, rather than gravitating towards one particular channel, said Manoj Menon, director- commercial, Kantar Worldpanel, South Asia. “While the growth [for quick commerce and e-commerce] might appear to have declined compared to a year ago, a point to note is that the base for these channels has significantly grown. Therefore, achieving this level of growth is still commendable.”
Consumer goods companies such as Hindustan Unilever Ltd., Dabur India Ltd., Tata Consumer Products Ltd., etc., have acknowledged the salience of quick commerce to their packaged food, personal and homecare products. The platform currently comprises roughly 40% of their digital sales.
“We are working all the major players in the quick commerce space and devising product mix and portfolio. This is a very high growth channel for us,” according to Mohit Malhotra, chief executive officer, Dabur India.
Elara Capital analysts have pointed out that the share of quick commerce is expected to rise to60% in the near future with e-commerce and modern trade turning costlier for FMCG brands than quick commerce. “The larger brands tend to make better margins on quick-commerce platforms versus e-commerce due to lower discounts on the former,” it said in a report.
However, it is too premature to draw a parallel between kirana and quick commerce in terms of competition, given the significant size difference.
The average spend per consumer on FMCG in kirana stores stands at Rs. 21,285 annually while the same is Rs. 4,886 for quick commerce, according to Menon.
Rural Vs Urban Divide
Quick commerce is still an urban phenomenon. In contrast, in rural settings, where internet penetration is still catching up and access to large retail chains is limited, kirana stores continue to thrive.
According to Naveen Malpani, partner, Grant Thornton Bharat, while the growth of quick commerce is undeniable, this channel is not poised to replace traditional retail, which still has a wider reach in the country. “It will complement older models, filling a niche for immediate, smaller purchases. Also, a 10-20-minute delivery may not have a strong market pull in rural markets where distance and time are not much of a concern.”
Yet many others believe, even in these areas, the challenge is palpable.
The small businesses are beginning to feel the sting of same slow decline that once befell the ubiquitous telephone booths in the era of mobile phone, according to Sameer Gandotra, chief executive officer of Frendy, a start-up that is building ‘mini DMart’ in small towns where giants like Reliance and Tatas have yet to establish their presence.
As rural customers slowly start to embrace digital shopping and seek more variety, kirana stores must adapt or risk becoming obsolete, he said.
Besides, the popularity of quick commerce is set to challenge the dominance of incumbent e-commerce platforms, especially in categories such as beauty and personal care, packaged foods and apparel.
“Quick commerce is primarily operational in metros and tier 1 markets, which is impacting the sales of traditional companies in these areas. However, if quick-commerce players were to extend their operations to tier 2 and tier 3, it would even challenge companies such as DMart and Nykaa, and would pare sales and profitability,” noted analysts at Elara Securities.
Frendy’s Gandotra believes the journey for kirana stores is not a lost cause, but it requires strategic interventions. Many kirana store owners struggle to integrate point-of-sale systems, inventory management software, or even digital payment solutions. These stores need to embrace technology.
Another aspect is the need for policy support. Regulations to ensure fair competition can prevent monopolisation by large retailers. Additionally, subsidies, tax benefits, and grants for infrastructure improvements can help small businesses adapt to changing market dynamics. With renewed support, kirana stores can continue to be the backbone of Indian retail.
Nonetheless, there will be some who’ll be left behind during this shift. Analysts at Elara Capital warn that the swift rise of quick-commerce platforms, combined with aggressive discounting, could wipe off 25-30% of traditional grocery stores.
(Published on NDTV Profit)
admin
August 24, 2024
Writankar Mukherjee & Navneeta Nandan, Economic Times
24 August 2024
Quick-commerce operators such as Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and Zepto are aggressively trying to lure away consumers from large ecommerce platforms like Amazon and Flipkart by matching their prices across groceries and fast-selling general merchandise, triggering a price war in the home delivery space.
This is a departure from the earlier pricing strategy of quick-commerce players who typically charged 10-15% premium over average ecommerce marketplace prices for instant deliveries, industry executives said.
The strategy now is to win consumers from large ecommerce at a time when urban shoppers increasingly prefer faster and scheduled deliveries, they said.
An ET study of prices of 30 commonly used products in daily necessities, discretionary groceries and other categories, including electronics and toys, in both ecommerce and quick-commerce platforms reveal the pricing disparity has been bridged. “The pricing premium which quick commerce used to charge for instant deliveries is gone with these platforms now joining a race with large ecommerce to offer competitive pricing to shift consumer loyalties,” said B Krishna Rao, senior category head at biscuits major Parle Products.
It seems to be working. Quick commerce is the fastest growing channel for all leading fast-moving consumer goods companies, accounting for 30-40% of their total online retail sales, according to company disclosures in earning calls.
These platforms are also expanding their basket with larger FMCG packs to cater to monthly shopping needs but also non-groceries such as electronic products, home improvement, kitchen appliances, basic apparel, shoes and toys amongst others.
“Consumers have all the apps on their phones and all they want is quick deliveries at the best price,” said Rao of Parle Products.
The increasing competition is putting pressure on ecommerce majors to reduce delivery time.
‘Market acquisition cost’
Flipkart is even eyeing a quick-commerce foray by piloting a 10-minute delivery service called Minutes in some parts of Bengaluru.
Jayen Mehta, managing director of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation that owns the Amul brand, said now that people are buying regularly from quick commerce with an increase in their assortment, legacy ecommerce platforms like Big Basket and Amazon are trying to deliver faster and same day, which has increased competition pressure.
“At the end of the day, consumers compare across channels before buying. So, pricing equality has become important,” Mehta said. “But then, quick commerce has a delivery charge if the order is below a certain value,” he added.
But does their business model allow quick-commerce players to wage a sustained price war against ecommerce platforms?
Quick commerce model requires multiple dark stores to be set up in close vicinity in each market, while ecommerce players mostly make deliveries from centralised warehouses.
But then, quick commerce platforms right now are at a phase where ecommerce was 7-8 years back, said Devangshu Dutta, CEO of consulting firm Third Eyesight.
“Price matching by quick commerce is to acquire market share and is part of market acquisition cost even when it might not be profitable at a per unit transaction level,” he told ET. “They may have to sacrifice margins in the short term to get customers shopping more frequently.”
Blinkit chief executive Albinder Singh Dhindsa earlier this month said the advent of quick commerce has made people want things faster than they would have otherwise got from ecommerce.
“This has led to a direct share shift of a number of non-grocery use cases to quick commerce where customers were primarily reliant on ecommerce for buying these products,” he said in the Zomato-owned quick-commerce platform’s June quarter earnings release.
Dhindsa said quick-commerce platforms are gaining sales by incremental growth in consumption, shift in purchases from next day ecommerce deliveries and mid-premium retail chains.
Citing an example, he claimed the demand Blinkit has generated for online-first oral care brand Perfora is a testament that such brands’ growth and adoption on quick commerce is much faster than on ecommerce.
(Published in Economic Times)
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March 18, 2024
Christina Moniz, Financial Express
March 18, 2024
It is not difficult to understand why e-commerce firm Flipkart wants a bite of the Q-commerce pie.
India’s quick commerce market has been growing year-on-year at 77% to reach $2.8 billion in GMV (gross merchandise value) in 2023, according to a Redseer report. In comparison, e-commerce has been growing at 14-15% year-on-year. No one would dispute that with instant deliveries of products and groceries in 10-20 minutes, quick commerce firms like the Zomato-owned Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart have changed the face of e-commerce and retail over the past few years.
While quick commerce thrives, none of the players in this ring are profitable yet. According to Devangshu Dutta, CEO at Third Eyesight, most quick commerce firms are in an expensive market acquisition phase and are at least a year away from profitability — perhaps longer. He expects that the unit economics for these companies will improve. “Some of the quick commerce players have created a substantial consumer base, which is growing in the frequency of transactions, moving to higher order values and transacting more products with potentially better margins,” says Dutta.
Both Zepto and Blinkit expect to turn profitable in FY25, as per their public statements.
So what are the primary challenges? “Traditional large e-commerce players face obstacles in facilitating last-mile deliveries, establishing dark stores, managing supply chains effectively, and navigating fierce market competition,” says Anshul Garg, managing partner & head, Publicis Commerce India.
The other key challenge for the late entrants is that customers seldom switch platforms. This is different from the way customers shop for products like electronics on e-commerce, where they compare prices/ deals across multiple e-commerce marketplaces. Brands like Flipkart need to define their playbook by maybe exploring categories other than grocery if they are to make a dent in this market.
As things stand, quick commerce has a mere 7% of the potential market. The total addressable market is estimated at $45 billion, higher than food delivery, as per JM Financial. Blinkit leads the market with a 46% share, followed by Swiggy Instamart at 27%, and Zepto at 21%.
Growing-up pangs
Kushal Bhatnagar, associate partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants, explains that there are broadly three ways that Q-commerce firms are working towards profitability. The first is by pushing higher priced items on their platforms and bumping up higher average order values. They’re also foraying into non-grocery segments such as cosmetics and headphones.
The other lever is ensuring dark store efficiencies. “While dark stores are an added cost, most platforms have a solid understanding of the demand across micro markets and are able to extract better profitability from each dark store. So the trend is positive, even if profitability is still to be achieved,” explains Bhatnagar.
For a dark store to deliver ROI and become profitable, it needs to cross 1,200-1,300 daily orders.
Some players like Zepto are also experimenting with a nominal platform fee of Rs. 2 per order, which they sometimes increase during peak times — by up to Rs. 10 — to gain from a surge in demand. Some are also implementing 12-15% fees for orders under Rs. 500, nudging customers to spend more.
Ad revenue is another important lever driving growth for these platforms, especially as D2C brands hop on board and advertise on them to reach GenZ and millennial consumers in metros and tier-I markets. Advertising revenue is around 3% of a platform’s GMV, and it is expected to keep growing.
FMCG and F&B are the top advertising categories on quick commerce currently but that can change as platforms move into higher value categories. “Quick commerce is also venturing into unconventional categories such as electronics, mobile and large appliances. If all goes according to plan, we can anticipate a significant shift in advertising contribution, given that these categories boast higher average selling prices, prompting advertisers to adopt a slightly more aggressive stance,” says Shashank Rathore, vice-president, e-commerce at Interactive Avenues (IPG Mediabrands India).
(Published in Financial Express)
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February 21, 2024
Published in ETPrime, 21 February 2024
Around two years ago, when Delhi-based Debabrata Bhattacherjee decided to explore a new brand for casual wear, he decided to give Uniqlo a try. The 27-year-old was so impressed by the quality that he became a regular customer of the Japanese fashion brand that had set foot in India in 2019.
“What first attracted me was the convenient design of their store, which was very organised and clean. Very Japanese, to say! The shopping experience is very hassle-free and offers a lot of options. Their clothes are very comfortable and the quality is excellent,” said Bhattacherjee, a video producer. Though the brand is costlier than others, he is okay paying the premium.
Bhattacherjee is among the many Indians who have contributed to the rising sales of Uniqlo. Also known to be Asia’s biggest clothing brand, the Japanese company posted a 69% jump in sales in FY23 from FY22, with a net revenue of Rs 624.6 crore and a net profit of Rs 68.38 crore in India.
Uniqlo is among a bunch of Japanese and South Korean brands that have, in the past couple of years, been gaining more space in the lifestyle and beauty product shelves of Indians. Wacoal, MUJI, Innisfree, Sulwhasoo and Amorepacific have been witnessing a relatively quiet but consistent growth in sales in the country.
East Asian portfolio
Indian consumers are not new to the products from these countries. A popular example is automobiles: Suzuki, Hyundai, Toyota and Honda have made millions of Indians mobile. Now, fashion and lifestyle products from East Asia are also now becoming part of Indian households.
Anand Ramanathan, Partner and Leader-Consumer Products and Retail, Deloitte India, said this is because these brands have built a reputation for quality, design and durability — much like their peers in automobiles and engineering.
East Asian lifestyle and beauty brands initially had an influence in the Northeastern states, where the customers are not only ahead of the curve in fashionability but also found resonance with the look of these brands, said Devangshu Dutta, founder and CEO of management consulting firm Third Eyesight. “In due course, K-dramas and K-pop (Korean popular culture) has boosted their expansion across the country. Japan and Korea are highly developed beauty and skincare markets, with customers who are conscious both about their appearance, as well as about the products’ performance. These brands have established brand equity across markets on their quality, innovation, and product development,” he said.
Indians have been enjoying the “Korean wave” or Haalyu, which refers to the global popularity of Korean culture, music, movies, and TV dramas. Ramanathan pointed out that Korean has emerged as the most learnt language among the 13-22 age group in India. Apart from fashion, he said, the cultural impact can be seen in food and jewellery options of Indian Gen Z and millennials.
Well-travelled Indians who have been exposed to these brands find the pricing has “value” implicitly built in, Dutta added.
Companies from these countries also seem to find value in India. A 2023 survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) that collected responses from over 500 manufacturers in the island country showed that 48.6% of the companies considered India a key destination for medium-term business growth. Ramanthan cited a report by DPIIT that stated that since 2000, South Korea has invested $5.7 billion in India across various sectors. Recently, South Korea has invested $400 million in India during July 2022 to June 2023.
E-commerce is a driver
Another brand on this list is Japan-based Wacoal. The lingerie maker entered India in 2015 with its first store in Mumbai, and has posted an impressive 3X year-on-year increase over the last eight years, said Pooja Merani, COO of Wacoal India.
This was because its products have adapted designs that align with the preferences of the Indian market, demonstrating cultural sensitivity, she said. The company measures the physique of approximately 1,000 women and girls between the ages of 4 and 69 every year, said Merani. This has helped it make clothes that suit Indians well. “Prioritising fit and comfort in the offerings, and understanding the diverse body types in India, have likely contributed to customer satisfaction and loyalty,” she said.
South Korean beauty firm Amorepacific, which is the parent company of popular cosmetic brands such as Innisfree and Sulwhasoo, said they are seeing traction in India as the beauty and wellness industry is experiencing robust growth. “There is an increasing awareness and emphasis on skincare, with consumers seeking effective and high-quality products. India has a large and youthful population, and the youth are often early adopters of beauty trends. Korean skincare products, with their trendy packaging, innovative formulations, and youthful image, can resonate well with this demographic,” said Mini Sood Banerjee, Assistant Director and Head of Marketing at Amorepacific Group.
The company had last year signed an agreement with Reliance Retail to sell through its online fashion platform, Tira. Banerjee said 80% of its sales are through e-commerce. “INNISFREE has been engaging with the Indian consumer much more rapidly in the online space.”
Uniqlo attributed its success to its blend of Japanese philosophy with Indian culture — the company started selling kurtas from 2019, when it had entered India through Delhi. A spokesperson credited the brand’s success to the 13 brick-and-mortar stores in India focussing on its “LifeWear” philosophy. “It is simple, high-quality, everyday clothing with a practical sense of beauty that is ingenious in detail. This approach originates from the Japanese values of simplicity, quality and longevity — and we have seen that Indians appreciate the high level of quality of our apparel,” the spokesperson said.
Making in India
These companies have also started production in India, a sign that they find the market promising.
Wacoal started its production in India last year, and is expanding into newer segments. The Uniqlo spokesperson said the company is on track to achieve 30% domestic sourcing. “We are actively growing local suppliers to deliver quality products for our customers. For example, we now work with 17 sewing factories and 6 fabric mills in India.”
Fashion, home textiles and other home products are potentially the first categories where manufacturing within India can be explored, said Third Eyesight’s Dutta. Brands with a large global footprint and established supply chains find it difficult to shift manufacturing bases.
“To make a shift to India, a substantial volume of demand needs to be generated within the country, and brands also need to be actively looking to diversify from their existing supply bases. Fashion brands and retailers with product lines that are relatively less technical or complex, or for which the size of economically viable production base is relatively small, are already looking at manufacturing more products and greater volumes in India,” he said.
Foreign brands have to find the product-market fit to be successful in a country. India being an ethnically diverse market, the product-market fit can be dissimilar across the country. Brands can be successful only if they can address specific segments and build the business accordingly, Dutta added.
Companies like Wacoal said they are mindful of the cultural challenges. Merani pointed out how the lingerie market is predominantly unorganised and has challenges such as limited awareness about proper sizing and cultural taboos. “Overcoming traditional industry norms and promoting accurate sizing awareness remains a persistent hurdle for us. Additionally, addressing diverse body types while ensuring top-notch quality further adds complexity,” she said.
‘Affluent India’
Despite the challenges and the steep pricing, experts said these brands are becoming popular as Indians have more disposable income.
According to a recent Goldman Sachs report that corroborated data using tax filings, bank deposits, credit cards and broadband connections, the affluent Indian consumer cohort has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12% in 2019-23, compared to 1% CAGR in India’s population. Rising retail participation has lifted India market cap over 80%, it pointed out. “The largest beneficiary of rising ‘affluent India’ are categories such as leisure, jewellery, out-of-home food and healthcare, and premium brands within all categories,” it added.
The willingness of Indian customers to pay a premium price for better quality products depends on factors such as product category, brand reputation, target demographic and economic conditions, said Amorepacific’s Sood.
For Japanese brands, the shift in India from electronics and automobiles to clothing and lifestyle is driven by strategic diversification and changing consumer trends. Japanese companies are leveraging globalisation and the increasing exposure of Indian consumers to international lifestyles, said Wacoal’s Merani.
“Economic factors, such as India’s growing middle-class population and economic growth, contribute to the attractiveness of the market. Thorough market research and understanding of local preferences, along with collaborations and partnerships, enable Japanese brands to align their products with the specific demands of the Indian consumer market. Overall, this shift reflects the adaptability and strategic decision-making of Japanese brands, indicating their confidence in the potential for success in diverse sectors beyond automobiles,” she said.
The Indian market still has legs.
The COO of Wacoal India said the lingerie market, for one, would grow by a CAGR of 9.3%, especially as more young women join the workforce.
India presents a great opportunity as a strong growing market. Even domestic brands are competing for “share-of-mind, shelf-space and share-of-wallet, and some larger Indian corporates are also backing their own brands and retail formats with strong investments,” added Third Eyesight’s Dutta.
If the Japanese and Korean brands want to survive, they would need to keep innovating and adapting to consumer preference. For Indians, meanwhile, it is “ache din” when it comes to shopping.
admin
January 26, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
Mumbai, 26 January 2024
Hindustan Unilever and United Spirits together present a study in contrasts that seemingly reinforces the current purchasing trends in India’s consumption sector. At the country’s biggest consumer-goods and alco-bev companies, respectively, premium brands are flying off the shelves, but mass-priced products remain relative stragglers.
“At the premium and luxury ends, they (consumers) are continuing to spend, continuing to experiment, continuing to do repertoire drinking, especially experimenting with the white spirits, drinking at home,” Hina Nagarajan, managing director at Diageo-controlled United Spirits, told investors in a post-earnings call. “However, Middle India, or the value-oriented consumer, is actually cutting down on the number of occasions (to spend) to manage their money.”
The maker of Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff posted a 12.4% volume decline in the mass-priced segments, while pricier prestige and above categories saw a 10% growth during the December quarter. The Indian unit of the world’s biggest distiller said it expects this trend in purchasing behaviour to continue over the next couple of quarters.
At Hindustan Unilever, the country’s biggest consumer company by both sales and market value, the story isn’t vastly different. The FMCG bellwether said its premium portfolio expanded more than two-and-a-half times the mass segment over the past few quarters.
This trend was seen even in the rural areas that make up nearly half the annual sales at the maker of Dove soaps and Glow & Lovely skin creams. Pricier products now constitute a third of Hindustan Unilever’s total sales. “In rural areas, there are people who can afford and spend money, and hence, the premium portfolio in has also grown well – like it has grown in urban parts of the business,” Rohit Jawa, managing director, Hindustan Unilever, told investors after the December-quarter earnings. “We have always seen that essential and discretionary are the two realities of (the) rural (market).”
Incomes & Business Cycles
This dichotomy in purchase decisions appears to be a function of income disparity and is market-agnostic, experts believe. For instance, rural India that accounts for nearly 40% of the overall FMCG market saw a noticeable drop in demand for a year due to inflation and erratic monsoons. Cities, meanwhile, appear to be at the vanguard of overall consumption demand across categories as urban incomes, typically linked to organised sectors of the economy, are more resilient to business cycles and promise better protection against broader inflationary pressures. “Even if the consuming class, mainly upper and middle class, saw an impact on their incomes, it is still not significant to affect their discretionary spends,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a strategy consulting firm. “There is a buffer available for higher income growth and it will hit them later in any economic downturn. At present, it is felt in the lower-income segment.”
Over the past decade and a half, consumer companies expanded sales by pushing both pricier and affordable products. Companies still have budget-friendly options in their portfolio, but lower incomes, especially in rural areas, appear to have dented purchasing power at the budget end of the market. “The real pressure on the wallet is on the lower side, where we do see upgrades are not happening from country liquor to either the popular category or the lower end of prestige,” said Nagarajan at United Spirits.
(Published in Economic Times)
