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January 9, 2025
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
9 January 2025
Starbucks, Barista, Chaayos and Third Wave Coffee are among café chains facing the brunt of a slowdown in discretionary consumer spending. The impact is more severe for these retailers as they opened hundreds of new stores last fiscal year even as losses widened. To be sure, smaller chains such as Tim Hortons and Blue Tokai have bucked the trend.
Experts attribute the expansion rush to the urge among these retailers – both chains and standalone stores – to outpace competition. In certain instance, it led the same retailer to add stores in the same location, impacting its own growth instead of growing the pie.
At Rs 250 to Rs 350 for a cup of coffee, most chains target affluent, discerning coffee enthusiasts with artisanal brewing and experiential consumption, restricting the consumer base.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said the number of outlets have been expanding since 2022.
This was true for not just the new brands but also existing ones, Dutta said. “Cafe density in larger cities has gone up dramatically in the last couple of years.”
Growth rate fell to just 5% in FY24 from nearly 70% at Barista and Chaayos while Starbucks’ sales growth declined to 12% in FY24 from 70% in FY23. Third Wave saw sales growth slump to 67% from 355% during the period. Cafe Coffee Day posted a 9% increase in FY24, though sharply slowing from 59% a year ago.
Tim Hortons, however, more than doubled its sales last fiscal, its first full year of operations. Blue Tokai also bucked the slowdown trend with a 70% growth in FY24, compared to 73% in FY23.
Blue Tokai cofounder Matt Chitharanjan believes growth in India’s out-of-home coffee market is more than just a caffeine surge—reflecting the country’s shifting economic fabric. “Coffee consumption is strongly linked to income growth and India has reached a tipping point where it will support growth in the segment and should only accelerate going forward,” Chitharanjan told ET. “We have not seen any slowdown in coffee consumption and our positioning is also more product centric instead of just a cafe, which helped in double-digit same store sales growth.”
Tim Hortons, a Canadian coffee chain, which opened its first outlet in India in 2022, plans to have over 100 stores in the next three years. British coffee and sandwich chain Pret A Manger too launched its first shop in Mumbai as part of a franchise agreement with Reliance Brands. It plans to open up to 100 stores over the next five years. Third Wave and Blue Tokai are running more than 250 stores combined while Starbucks had over 330 stores as of March-end.
Tata Starbucks—the equal JV between Tata Consumer Products and US-based Starbucks Corp—said store footfalls have become a concern and the company has tweaked portfolio and pricing to attract traffic. Last year, the chain introduced classic hot and iced coffee starting at Rs 150 for a small cup, about 20-30% cheaper than regular coffee offered at Starbucks and other cafe chains.
“The stress is being seen across the quick service restaurant segment. It’s an overall consumer spending issue, especially in urban areas. And my hypothesis is probably food inflation is higher than what we think,” Sunil D’Souza, MD at Tata Consumer Products said during the December quarter earnings call.
Globally as well as in India, coffee growers have been hit with uncertain weather conditions while geopolitical factors are also affecting supply chains, which in turn, lifted prices to a record high. “The biggest challenge is erratic weather and climate change which has sent coffee prices to a 50-year high, but we will have to see how it impacts our pricing and profit after the current harvest,” said Chitharanjan at Blue Tokai.
(Published in Economic Times)
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December 31, 2024
Jasodhara Banerjee, Forbes India
31 December 2024
Once, there was alabaster. Then, there was porcelain. And now there is glass. And no, we are not talking about the different kinds material to make fine, delicate objet d’art, but the quality and texture of facial skin—smooth, flawless and luminescent—that humans aspire to.
While a Google search for the term ‘glass skin’ will churn out hundreds of results that describe not just what the term means—tracing it to Korean skin care routines and products—but also detail the meticulous steps, varying between five and 11, that will apparently make you look like your favourite K-pop singer or K-drama actor. Like all things K (read: Korean), be it television and OTT serials, or food and clothes, K-beauty seems to have taken the Indian market by storm. A search for ‘Korean brands’ on online platforms such as Nykaa and Tira Beauty brings up more than a thousand products, ranging from ₹75 for a facial sheet mask to ₹17,900 for 60 ml of face cream. Clearly, there is something for everybody.
Fuelling this surge has been a plethora of factors, including the rise of online marketplaces that have made Indian and foreign skin care and beauty products more accessible than before, the thriving ecosystem of influencers and content creators that has revolutionised the marketing of these products, and, of course, consumer demand for products that claim to have the goodness of natural ingredients backed by the surety of science. And, surprising as it may seem, the Covid-19 pandemic and accompanying lockdowns also seem to have played a role in this.
Case in point is Amorepacific Corporation, a Seoul-headquartered beauty and cosmetics company that operates in more than 50 countries, and has a portfolio of more than 30 brands, such as Sulwhasoo, Laneige, Mamonde, Etude House and Innisfree. It is one of the largest cosmetics companies, not just in South Korea, but in the world.
“We are the number one beauty and personal care brand in South Korea and were the first Korean corporation to enter India with direct management, with our own subsidiary,” says Paul Lee, managing director and country head, Amorepacific India. “We started our business in India with Innisfree, which uses natural ingredients from Jeju Island in South Korea. We started with Innisfree because India had a huge demand for brands with natural products. Then we introduced Laneige and Sulwhasoo, which fall in the luxury skin care segment, and these were followed by Etude, which is a makeup brand.”
Amorepacific entered India sometime in 2012, taking tentative steps in a fledgling market with minimal investments and a retail store in Delhi’s Khan market. “At that time, the awareness of K-beauty was very small, and our momentum of growth started with the popularity of dedicated ecommerce players like Nykaa. In the last seven years, our annual growth has been 50 percent, our current growth is 60 percent year-on-year,” says Lee.
A potent potion for growth
Although industry players and experts feel there are multiple factors behind this growth, the popularity of Korean cultural elements is a significant one. “Korean beauty and personal care brands have multiple enabling factors. The global expansion of Korean beauty and personal care products has been on the back of a cultural export wave like any other earlier in history; in this case through the growing popularity of K-pop and K-dramas,” says Devangshu Dutta, founder, Third Eyesight and co-founder, PVC Partners. “In India, these brands initially had an influence in the Northeastern states, where customers are usually ahead on the fashion curve and also find resonance with the look of these brands.” He adds that factors such as the increasing number of Indian tourists to East Asian countries, and the growing presence of Korean and Japanese expatriates within India have also supported the growing footprint of these brands.
A spokesperson for Tira Beauty, which was launched in April 2023, agrees with Dutta, and attributes the demand for K-beauty products to the exposure that consumers have to K-dramas and K-pop. However, she adds that a significant factor is rooted in the products themselves. “These are the innovations that these brands are bringing to the table,” she explains. “The kind of formulations they offer are very well-suited for the Indian consumer. The ingredients are very efficacy oriented, and deliver a lot of quality, thus resolving a lot of concerns that consumers in India have.”
For instance, skin hydration is a core need of consumers, and a lot of Korean skin care products focus on hyaluronic acid as an ingredient. “Consumers who have sensitive skin or inflammation as a key concern get to use ingredients like centella asiatica, that a lot of Korean products use,” she says.
The spokesperson adds that the texture of the products is also a factor behind their popularity in India: “A lot of Korean sunscreens are light weight, a lot of their essences are suited for the Indian skin and the Indian weather. Both these factors are contributing to the rise we are witnessing in the space of K-beauty.”
Lee of Amorepacific highlights the use of unique ingredients such as fermented beans, ginseng and green tea that were never used before by American or European companies. There are also many options for consumers to choose from, depending on what is best suited for them. For instance, there is a product line with green tea for consumers with sensitive skin, and the same products are available for those with dry skin. “There are three key metrics that we have seen among Indian consumers: One is the demand for premium quality, two is the demand for glass skin, and the third is reliability.”
Lee also attributes market factors that have been instrumental in making Korean products more accessible to Indian consumers. “There has been a lot of change before Covid, and after Covid. From the macro perspective, the number of internet users with access to low-cost data plans has increased. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of new people watching OTT platforms such as Netflix also surged. From the Netflix perspective, I think India is one of the top three countries, where the number of subscribers is concerned.”
According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, the beauty market in India saw substantial growth following the Covid-19 pandemic and is projected to expand by 10 percent annually from 2022 to 2027, more than twice the global average growth rate for the beauty sector. According to market analyst Mordor Intelligence, the K-beauty market in India is expected to grow annually by 9.4 percent from 2021 to 2026.
Lee highlights the popularity of Korean OTT series such as Squid Games in making Indians familiar with Korean culture, and YouTube videos making a lot of people aware of K-beauty. “When we started operating in India, there were hardly two or three brands operating here, but currently there are more than 60 Korean brands in India. The influence of TV and music content has made people familiar with Korean culture, which is similar to Indian culture in being family-centric,” he adds.
Content creator Scherezade Shroff Talwar says, “The Hallyu [Korean] wave during the pandemic has definitely contributed to, what I would say, an over-consumption of Korean culture and I definitely contribute to it as well. K-beauty products have been around in India for a while, but with the increasing popularity of K-dramas and K-pop, people are seeing more such content across multiple platforms. This has contributed to the rising number of Korean brands in India, and the use of their products.” She recalls how, in November, she was in South Korea with her K-drama club, and the members had lists of the products that they wanted to buy there because they are not available in India.
According to a September report by market research firm Mintel, social media analysis in India reveals that there have been 6.2 million posts in the last two years discussing K-drama, K-pop, and K-beauty trends, predominantly among the 19 to 24 age group. This continued popularity in K-pop throughout the APAC region influences consumers’ interest in Korean skin care and beauty products, the report adds.
Lee says that Korean beauty companies have also been prompt to react to the demands in the market. For instance, Innisfree introduces new products every three months, and they are based on consumer feedback through social media and actual stores. Given the demand from Indian consumers, Amorepacific has also formed a task force at its headquarters which is dedicated to reviewing and studying the Indian market, with plans bring in more brands and businesses.
Data shows, adds Lee, that the import of Korean skin care products into India is increasing by 63 percent every year, going up four times compared to 2020. Amorepacific’s own research shows that 53 percent of Indian beauty consumers have already tried Korean products. “Fifteen percent of the entire skin care products market is now dominated by Korean products,” he claims.
Although Amorepacific decided to close all 23 of its exclusive stores in India because of the losses suffered during the pandemic, it decided to partner instead with local channels such as Nykaa, Tira Beauty and SS Beauty, and its products are today available across 400 counters in 45 cities. “Although our company is seeing 60 percent growth every year now, our retail area is doubling every year,” says Lee. “Our aim is to be available in 500 counters within a year.”
The availability and accessibility of Korean skin care and beauty products have also coincided with the rise of marketing products through influencers and content creators. The spokesperson for Tira Beauty says that influencers have played a massive role in the popularity of Korean products. “One of the reasons why K-beauty products do well across markets is because Gen-Z consumers tend to follow a lot of these influencers,” she explains. For instance, Tira launched the Beauty of Joseon sunscreen, and it went out of stock very quickly. “We experienced this because there was a lot of awareness due to influencer activations, and there’s a certain amount of virality these products enjoy even before they are launched.” She also gives the example of the brand Tirtir, which was launched on Tira Beauty in India in November. “The brand rolled out samples to influencers in India in July, and that helped propel demand to a great extent.”
According to business consulting firm Grand View Research, celebrity influencers have been beneficial to marketers due to their global reach, which often transcends cultural boundaries. Hence, the top strategy used by Korean cosmetics brands is to sell their products to Korean celebrities. Storytelling using Korean celebrities as brand ambassadors, and streaming advertisements and video tutorials all over the social media platform are some of the major strategies adopted by K-beauty brands.
Grand View Research gives the example of the lip layering bar of Laniege, which has emerged as a convenient tool for those who want to get the trendy gradient lip look with just a single application. Celebrities such as actors Song Hye Kyo and Lee Sung Kyung have used the product, enhancing its appeal and desirability among consumers.
Celebrities from different parts of the world promote K-beauty products, and this fosters a cross-cultural appeal and encourages individuals from diverse backgrounds to explore and adopt these products in their skin care routines. Following this global trend, in India, young celebrities have been roped in to appeal to Gen-Z consumers. For instance, actor Palak Tiwari became the first Indian brand ambassador for Etude, while actor Wamiqa Gabbi became first Indian brand ambassador for Innisfree, and Sara Tendulkar, daughter of cricketing legend Sachin Tendulkar, is the brand ambassador for Laneige.
Dutta of Third Eyesight says, “Influencers certainly have played a role in building the buzz around K-beauty and have formed a relatively cost-effective means to spread the message in the past. However, in recent years with a growing number of social influencers, there is more clutter as well on the channels.”
India not in the big league, but demanding
Although the rise of K-beauty products in India has been significant, the country remains a far smaller market for these brands compared to markets such as the US, Europe and China. According to Grand View Research, the global K-beauty products market size was valued at $91.99 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3 percent from 2023 to 2030.
The consulting firm says the Korean cosmetics industry grew steadily during the Covid-19 pandemic, owing to an increase in awareness of the numerous benefits offered by the products. Moreover, due to a rise in popularity among consumers, major K-beauty companies are taking initiatives such as R&D, product launches, mergers and acquisitions to retain shares in the market and respond to changes in the marketplace by introducing a range of items.
Grand View Research valued the US market, one of the largest for K-beauty products, at $20.2 billion in 2021 and expects it to grow at a CAGR of 8.8 percent between 2023 and 2030. Compared to this, Statista valued the India K-beauty market at $486 million in 2021, and expects it to grow to over $1.3 billion by 2032.
Lee of Amorepacific says the US remains the largest beauty market as a whole, followed by China, Japan, the UK, France and India. “One of the differentiating factors between the US and Indian consumers is that the premium market in India is very small, and it is still a mass-product driven market,” he says. “Secondly, ecommerce in India is still quite small. In South Korea and the US, ecommerce just in the beauty segment, is 30 to 40 percent, while in India it is 13 percent. India is traditionally an offline market.”
He adds that despite the growth, Indians remain sceptical about whether Korean products are suitable for Indian skins, and there is demand for products that are made only for Indians. “Localisation, therefore, has become important for the company. Although we conduct clinical trials in different geographies, we are starting to take more feedback from Indian consumers, and we are ready to develop products only for the Indian market. For instance, we have introduced the Innisfree kajal and the Innisfree hair massage oil, and have developed lip colours for the Indian market.”
Although the company did not divulge revenue figures, it is expecting to grow six times in the next six years in India, and plans to introduce at least five more brands within the next seven years in this market.
(Published in Forbes India)
Devangshu Dutta
December 24, 2024
Opinion piece by Devangshu Dutta, published in TexFash.com
12 December 2024
TLDR:
The core premise of quick commerce is time-sensitive buying by the consumer, typically emergency purchases and top-ups of food and grocery, cleaning or personal care items. Although 10-minute delivery has been widely hyped, deliveries are usually—and more realistically—made in a time span of 20–60 minutes, which is often better than the cost and time involved in driving to nearby stores that are beyond walkable distance, in India’s crowded urban environment.
While quick commerce platforms had already begun disrupting FMCG and grocery buying, impacting traditional kirana shops, recently they have also started adding fashion products to improve their margin mix and profitability.
The fashion business, by its very nature, is built on width of choice, frequency of change and unpredictability, whereas the quick commerce business model depends on a narrow, shallow merchandise mix which comprises products that are sold predictably, frequently and in large numbers within a small delivery radius. Stocking a variety of fashion styles, sizes, and colours is inherently more complex than handling products like soaps or spices.
Also, unlike FMCG or essential products, fashion items certainly depend on sensory experience of touch and feel. Shopping for clothing often requires browsing through a variety of styles, fabrics, and fits; consumers spend considerable time researching, comparing, and reading reviews to ensure the right fit, colour, and fabric.
However, there is potential for basics (e.g. T-shirts in common colours, innerwear, socks, and hosiery), last-minute outfit changes, urgent replacement for damaged clothing, event-driven products, or specially promoted products that look like great deals, as all of these would fulfil immediate needs without the same level of evaluation and comparison.
In contrast, fashion shopping for high-value items such as dresses, shirts, or outerwear will remain a slower, more deliberate process. The higher the emotional or experiential value attached to a product, the less quick commerce will fit.
Myntra has announced its quick commerce launch offering 10,000 styles, across fashion, beauty, accessories and home, and expects to expand the offering to over 100,000 products in 3–4 months.
I see Myntra’s entry into this space partly as a defensive move to fend off the quick commerce upstarts from cannibalising its business in a market that is already beset with damp offtake and highly discounted sales. Surely Myntra would not want to lose its customers who may looking to make repeat, impulse or emergency purchases of fashion products and may be less price sensitive while doing so.
It’ll be interesting to see how they address the product complexity with super-quick deliveries, and how geographically spread this business model can be for Myntra.
Myntra’s parent company Flipkart has already announced that it expects to IPO by 2025–26, and it needs to be seen as evolving and staying relevant in an increasingly competitive environment, rather than losing customers and business to younger q-commerce businesses.
We shouldn’t confuse quick commerce with “fast fashion”. What is fast in quick commerce is the speed of decision making and shopping that is enabled by a limited choice, and fast deliveries.
The fast fashion model is built on the foundation of changing trends, which needs companies to quickly identify winning trends, get product ready to sell, and move out of trend so as not to be stuck with out-of-demand inventory. The fashion-conscious customer profile wants frequent and, most importantly, trendy changes to their wardrobe. Fast fashion is waste-inducing because it encourages discarding products that are out of trend, but otherwise perfectly fine.
Quick commerce, on the other hand, needs to have a profitable business on a much narrower product profile. The more predictable and basic the product, the more it suits a Q-commerce business model.
Sustaining the ability to make fashion-trend related changes to the product mix would be nightmarishly complex for quick commerce.
I would expect quick commerce of fashion to be more driven by “need” than by “want”, and in that aspect to be, hopefully, less waste-inducing and perhaps less environmentally harmful than the established fast fashion business models and brands.
Quick commerce could also create an additional outlet for inventory that is stuck and feed into value-conscious customers’ requirements.
For small manufacturers, Myntra’s entry into the q-commerce space could be a double-edged sword.
On one hand, quick commerce can create a new demand channel for them beyond modern retail, traditional stores and online marketplaces, offering growth in a tough market environment.
However, it can also intensify the pressure on their already tight margins because of the consolidation of trade demand and a push by large customers such as Myntra to improve their own profitability. Suppliers may also be asked to hold inventory at their end ready for replenishment of the quick commerce dark stores, to ensure that service levels are maintained.
This can increase pressure on production timelines and on working capital for small manufacturers, who would need to adapt quickly or risk being squeezed out by larger, more agile competitors.
On the competitive side, while larger retailers—whether traditional, family-owned department stores or large chains—are likely to be less affected, quick commerce of fashion products will certainly hit smaller fashion stores whose merchandise mix is limited in width and depth. These stores will necessarily need to define what is their continuing value proposition to the changing consumer.
admin
December 14, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
Mumbai, 14 December 2024
Fast fashion was on a slow lane in the last fiscal year. Sales growth slowed for top retailers and fast fashion brands, show the latest regulatory filings of Marks & Spencer, Zara, H&M, Levi’s, Lifestyle, Uniqlo, Benetton and Celio. The bottom line too had taken a hit, with most brands posting lower profits in the fiscal year ended March 31. Sales growth of H&M and Zara fell from 40% in FY23 to 11% and 8% in FY24, show the filings with the Registrar of Companies. Levi’s growth slowed to 4% from 54% in FY23, while that of Uniqlo halved to 31% from 60%.
The current year is not looking good either, as sticky inflation and stagnant income weigh on consumer spending on discretionary products, say experts.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said the job market has been under pressure and slower income growth for urban consumer impacted demand, a trend likely to continue even during FY25.
“There is a visible slowdown led by the urban middle class who buy branded products. These brands have been targeting young upwardly mobile consumers, who are tightening the purse strings due to the current economic circumstances of hiring slack and fewer jobs,” said Dutta. “The situation is not hunky-dory at all, and this will continue over the next few quarters.”
Being the world’s most populous country, India is an attractive market for apparel brands, especially with youngsters increasingly embracing western-style clothing. But most international and premium brands have been competing for a relatively narrow slice of the population pie in large urban centres.
Over the past few years, top global apparel and fast fashion brands struck a strong chord with young customers, racking up sales growth of between 40% and 60% in FY23, bucking the trend in a market where the overall demand for discretionary products started slowing down. This has reversed now.
Consumers started reducing non-essential spending, such as on apparel, lifestyle products, electronics and dining out since early last year due to high inflation, increase in interest rates, job losses in sectors like startups and IT, and an overall slowdown in the economy.
According to the Retailers Association of India (RAI), sales growth in organised retail segments such as apparel, footwear, beauty and quick service restaurants halved to 9% last year and slowed further to about 5% in the first six months in the current fiscal year. This slowdown came after a surge in spending across segments-from clothes to cars-in the post-pandemic period, triggered by revenge shopping.
“The base post-pandemic was extremely high, and that kind of growth is not sustainable as there is nothing spectacular in economy to drive demand,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, chief executive officer at the RAI that represents organised retailers. “Our bet was on the festive and wedding season, but we will have to wait and watch until next year for the performance numbers,” he said.
(Published in Economic Times)
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December 8, 2024
Sharleen Dsouza, Business Standard
Mumbai, 8 Dec 2024
The legal battle between Mahindra Electric Automobile and IndiGo Aviation over ‘6e’ continues in court, and brand experts believe the case is unlikely to stand up in law. However, Mahindra is receiving free publicity from this trademark infringement fight.
As the case progresses in the Delhi High Court (HC), Mahindra issued a statement on Saturday, saying, “We are hence taking the decision to brand our product BE 6.”
However, brand experts argue that since both companies operate in different sectors, there should not be any legal issues.
“Ideally, there shouldn’t be confusion, as they don’t operate in the same segment unless IndiGo plans to enter the car market, and vice versa. Everyone is being cautious about their brand,” said N Chandramouli, chief executive officer (CEO) of TRA Research.
He added that while everyone is being cautious about their brand, the use of ‘6e’ by Mahindra is not necessarily against the law. “It depends on what the court decides, and Mahindra Electric Automobile can prove in court that it will not harm its brand name.”
Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, also said that there are several instances where brands and trademarks overlap. “From a marketing perspective, Mahindra Electric Automobile is getting free publicity from this fight. IndiGo’s position in this argument will depend on whether it has registered ‘6e’ as a trademark.”
Sandeep Goyal, chairman of Rediffusion, believes this is an interesting case. He said, “I’m not sure if ‘6e’ as a combination is registrable. However, IndiGo may well have secured the intellectual property (IP), though the trademark may not extend to automobiles.” He further added, “I’m sure Mahindra must have done its homework before using 6e in its vehicle name — it’s too public to risk unless it was unfettered and cleared by their lawyers.”
In its statement released on Saturday, Mahindra also said it has applied for trademark registration under Class 12 (vehicles) for ‘BE 6e’ as part of its electric sport utility vehicle portfolio. “The mark ‘BE’ is already registered with Mahindra in Class 12, and it stands for our Born Electric platform underpinning the BE 6e.”
“We believe it differs fundamentally from IndiGo’s ‘6e’, which represents an airline, eliminating any risk of confusion,” it added.
The statement also noted that, in the past, Tata Motors had objected to InterGlobe Enterprises using the IndiGo mark due to the Tata Indigo car brand. InterGlobe continues to use the IndiGo mark in a different industry. “We, therefore, find their objection to BE 6e inconsistent with its own previous conduct,” the statement said.
Last week, IndiGo released a statement saying that the ‘6e’ mark has been an integral part of IndiGo’s identity for the past 18 years and is a registered trademark with strong global recognition. “The ‘6e’ mark, whether standalone or in its variants and formative forms, is extensively used by IndiGo for its offerings and goods and services provided in collaboration with trusted partners.”
It added that any unauthorised use of the ‘6e’ mark, whether standalone or in any form, constitutes an infringement of IndiGo’s rights, reputation, and goodwill. “IndiGo is committed to taking all necessary and appropriate steps to safeguard its IP and brand identity,” the statement said.
The case will be heard in the Delhi HC on Monday.
(Published in Business Standard)
