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May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
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February 14, 2026
This episode of theUpStreamlife is a freewheeling conversation between Vishal Krishna and Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, with insights into the growth of modern retail and consumption in India, brand building and M&A, the balance of power between brands and retailers/platforms, sustainability vs growth and many other aspects, and is well-suited for founders and teams who want to be building for the long run in India.
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February 11, 2026
Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, Mint
Bengaluru, 11 February 2026
Sales of winter wear were underwhelming for the second year in a row as an unusually delayed and milder winter disrupted demand for heavy winter wear, particularly in north and west India, executives at two of India’s top clothing retailers said. Initial optimism for a bumper season this year compounded the disappointment for retailers.
While early signs of a La Niña—a weather pattern typically known for bringing freezing temperatures to India—triggered some early buying in the previous quarter, the season remained unusually mild, leaving stores with a surplus of winter clothing. Excess rainfall and cyclonic activity during the festive period in parts of eastern and southern India further weighed on seasonal buying, compounding the pressure on winter sales which are typically front-loaded.
This slump is particularly painful because winter sales are the industry’s largest annual driver. These months coincide with India’s massive wedding season, when spending peaks. Together, they account for roughly 20% of total yearly revenue for apparel companies, according to industry estimates. India’s apparel market was estimated to be worth more than ₹1.9 trillion in FY25, of which 41% was organised, credit ratings firm CareEdge said in January 2026.
V-Mart: margin over volume
Lalit Agarwal, managing director of V-Mart Retail, said, “Northern India saw a delayed or milder winter initially, leading to dispersed demand for heavy winter wear. Winter demand was definitely delayed a little bit—it didn’t get lost, but it was erratic.” He added that while festive demand held up, “demand visibility was uncertain, particularly in winter-led categories, and we consciously chose to protect margins rather than chase volumes.”
V-Mart’s revenue grew a little over 10% year-on-year to ₹1,126.4 crore in Q3 from ₹1,023.7 crore a year earlier and ₹889.05 crore in the third quarter of FY24, but this growth was largely driven by wedding and festive-season clothing, executives at the company said.
Anand Agarwal, chief financial officer of V-Mart Retail, said despite forecasts of a strong, early winter, “peak winters were delayed across North and West India, leading to a lull post-Diwali.” He added, “While the festive period went off reasonably well, winter demand did not pan out as anticipated,” attributing the softer sales to fewer peak winter days and unusually warmer temperatures.
Despite the delayed demand, the company managed to avoid a build-up of unsold inventory during the quarter. “Inventory health remained strong despite the delayed winter, and in some categories we were even short of inventory,” said Anand Agarwal, indicating that the eventual dip in temperatures led to a sudden pick-up in demand in select winter categories rather than excess stock.
Winter-led assortments continue to account for a sizeable share of the company’s quarterly sales, underscoring its sensitivity to weather patterns. “Winter and pre-winter categories accounted for about 40-45% of the overall mix during the quarter, and this share rose to over 60% during peak winter weeks in December,” said Agarwal during the third-quarter earnings call. The higher share of winter wear sales during peak weeks helped cushion margins, even as volumes remained below expectations. Lalit Agarwal said the company refrained from aggressive discounting amid uncertain demand. “Higher full-price sell-through during the winter quarter supported margins, as we did not undertake aggressive discounting,” he said.
Vishal Mega Mart: the late recovery
Gunender Kapur, managing director and chief executive officer of rival Vishal Mega Mart, said delayed winters usually force retailers to push promotions to ensure that they don’t carry forward all that merchandise, because the next opportunity to sell it would be the following year.
Despite this, the company’s performance held up, he said, highlighting that winter sales achieved robust double-digit same-store growth for the entire season and the full quarter, effectively overcoming the sluggish demand during December. Kapur noted that demand for winter clothing increased significantly in January, adding, “Winter merchandise is still selling well, both in our stores and in other stores, we believe.”
Vishal Mega Mart reported revenue growth of about 17% to ₹3,670.3 crore in Q3 FY26 from ₹3,135.9 crore in Q3 FY25 and ₹2,623.5 crore in Q3 FY24, largely on the back of wedding and festive-season demand.
Kapur said the company was unsure whether there would be significant unsold winter merchandise at the end of the season, adding that maintaining pricing discipline helped protect profit margins. “Merchandise that sells in December typically fetches a higher price than January merchandise for winter because sales often begin by late December or early January,” he said. “In our case, there was no problem. We achieved same-store sales growth of over 10%, even with the winter merchandise we purchased for the autumn-winter season.”
V2 Retail: the outlier
In contrast, V2 Retail recorded strong performance in the third quarter, largely driven by winter wear. Revenue surged nearly 60% year-on-year to ₹929.2 crore in Q3 from ₹590.9 crore a year earlier. This is perhaps because V-Mart and Vishal Mega Mart are more concentrated in north and central India, where winter demand was more uneven this season, while V2 has a stronger presence in eastern and north-eastern markets, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam.
Managing director Akash Agarwal said the early onset of winter led to a “very good season” for the company. He noted that winter garments typically command a much higher average selling price (ASP) than summer products, which resulted in a visible bump in average bill value during the third quarter, led by higher sales of jackets and sweaters. Agarwal said this high-ASP, high-margin category accounted for the bulk of Q3 sales and was a key driver of the company’s same-store sales growth.
A worsening problem?
Two straight years of sluggish sales because of erratic winters highlight broader challenges around climate change for apparel retailers, which peg their inventory based on weather patterns and demand.
“Seasons have always been inherently unpredictable, and retailers have never been able to forecast with certainty how cold or warm a winter will be or how long it will last,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a consulting firm. However, he said that the challenge has intensified over the past 15-20 years as apparel businesses have scaled up and expanded their store footprints nationwide, stretching product development and supply chains over several months.
“No matter how hard you work on the plan, your forecast will always be wrong. You will either overshoot or undershoot,” Dutta said, adding that this leaves retailers grappling with either shortages or excess stock. Winterwear, he said, is particularly vulnerable because it has a higher value per unit, a much shorter selling window, and a smaller market, factors which together create a “humongous problem” for retailers.
Data from a World Meteorological Organisation report published on 16 January showed that 2025 was among the three warmest years on record worldwide, continuing a decade-long streak of exceptional heat despite the cooling La Niña phase. This is a clear sign that background warming from greenhouse gases is overwhelming natural variability, the report said. It suggested that climate change will intensify seasonal shifts and extreme weather in the years and decades ahead, making industries tied to seasonal patterns, such as winter apparel, increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable weather swings and weaker cold spells.
(Published in Mint)
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January 15, 2026
Sagar Malviya, ET Bureau
Mumbai, 15 January 2026
It’s mostly a tale of two halves for top western fashion labels in India after the runaway sales and retail expansion in the years soon after the pandemic.
While Marks & Spencer, Benetton, and Adidas are battling waning demand, Uniqlo and Nike are gaining fresh ground, reflecting wider choices and increasingly discerning buyers in one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer economies.
Spanish brand Zara is facing stagnant growth while it tapered off at Apparel Group, which sells Aldo, and Charles & Keith brands in India. Experts termed the divergent sales performance as a potential structural shift instead of demand slowdown in India’s fashion and lifestyle market.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said consumers have clearly shifted towards function, even as trend-led brands continue to exist though they tend to be comparatively smaller. Some brands are also finding it harder to set or even follow trends the way they once did.
“This is especially true for Gen Z, which stays closely tuned to global trends and acts as the primary driver of fashion adoption,” said Dutta. “While older consumers may have greater spending power in absolute terms, it is younger shoppers who shape trends and influence product sales.”
Growth slowed across most leading retailers and fast-fashion brands in the country in FY24 as high inflation and stagnant incomes crimped discretionary spending.
While the trend remained the same for many even in FY25, select brands staged a strong rebound. For instance, Nike India’s sales rose 14% in FY25, up from a 4% increase in the previous year, while Uniqlo accelerated growth to 45%, from 31% in FY24.
Revival after Festive Season
Even Lifestyle, India’s biggest department store chain, grew 5% last fiscal, rebounding from a 4% decline in FY24.
Uniqlo said it continues to see steady momentum in India, supported by strong customer response, retail expansion, rising brand awareness, and a strong ecommerce uplift. “India is now among Uniqlo’s fastest-growing markets in Asia and plays a meaningful role in the region’s overall business,” Kenji Inoue, chief financial officer and chief operating officer, Uniqlo India told ET. “The country’s young demographic, growing focus on quality, and increasing appreciation for functional everyday clothing have all contributed to this progress.”
According to the Retailers Association of India (RAI), sales growth in organised retail segments such as apparel, footwear, beauty and quick service restaurants (QSR) saw single-digit sales growth last fiscal year but the market has recovered after the festive season with double-digit sales performance.
“Demand has improved, but it isn’t broad-based,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, chief executive at RAI which represents organised retailers. “With more fashion options available, Indian consumers are becoming more selective, and growth is coming to brands that offer a strong value proposition and not the cheapest products, but those where prices are justified by innovation, design and quality.”
In FY25, Apparel Group recorded a 25% sales growth, slowing from a 37% increase a year ago. Inditex Trent, which sells Zara in India, saw flat sales compared with an 8% growth in FY24.
Adidas too saw its revenue growth rate slowing to 5% from 20% in the previous fiscal. Sales of M&S and Benetton fell 12% and 3% each, respectively.
Being the world’s most populous nation, India is an attractive market for apparel brands, especially with youngsters increasingly embracing western-style clothing. However, most international and premium brands have been competing for a relatively narrow slice of the sales pie in large urban centres.
(Published in Economic Times)
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November 4, 2025
Yash Bhatia, IMPACT
4 November 2025
It started with groceries. Quick commerce started delivering milk, bread, and eggs in 10–15 minutes, which seemed revolutionary enough in 2022. Then came the iPhone 14 launch, and suddenly, quick commerce wasn’t just about convenience; it was about spectacle. Overnight, India’s app-based delivery ecosystem became the stage for a new ritual: flagship products arriving at your doorstep faster than you can say ‘checkout.’
And now? Phones aren’t the limit. You can even order motorcycles online. Yes, motorcycles. Royal Enfield has partnered with Flipkart to list its entire 350cc portfolio, which will be delivered to five cities: Bengaluru, Gurugram, Kolkata, Lucknow, and Mumbai.
The lines between e-commerce and quick commerce are becoming increasingly blurred. Flipkart’s Flipkart Minutes and Amazon’s instant delivery options are proof that speed is no longer a differentiator; it’s table stakes. And as platforms race to expand, high-ticket items are joining the frenzy, from electronics and furniture to watches, fitness equipment, and premium kitchen appliances. For platforms, these products are goldmines of margin; the challenge lies in logistics and consumer trust.
According to a report by CareEdge Advisory, India had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024, making it the second-largest e-retail user base globally, while the e-commerce market grew 23.8% in 2024 over the year-ago period, it said. The report also added that Indians ordered Rs 64,000 crore of goods from quick-commerce platforms.
From the consumer standpoint, one of the challenges for consumers to buy high-ticket items from the quick commerce platforms is to get consumer trust, which used to be the case when e-commerce started its operations. Can quick commerce move to high-ticket items? Is quick commerce looking at these items as a branding exercise, or are they looking at them as a serious revenue stream channel?
Chirag Taneja, Founder & CEO, GoKwik – an e-commerce enablement platform, says what began as a branding exercise for D2C brands has now evolved into a credible revenue stream. “In the early days, high-ticket categories on D2C platforms saw limited traction,” he explains. “Trust was still being built, customers were unsure if their orders would even reach them. There were many friction points.”
But that’s no longer the case. According to GoKwik’s network data, high-ticket purchases (above ₹2,500) are no longer outliers, they’re becoming a consistent driver of topline revenue.
Interestingly, most of these premium purchases are powered by credit instruments from no-cost EMIs to instant credit options at checkout. “This reflects a clear shift in mindset,” says Taneja. “Consumers no longer view high-value spending as a financial strain. They see it as a set of manageable, bite-sized payments that help them aspire higher, quicker. It’s not just a financial enabler, it’s a psychological unlock that makes premium consumption feel accessible and routine,” he adds.
“With strong trust in delivery reliability, smooth returns, and credible brand backing, the ecosystem has bridged the gap that once kept premium shopping offline,” says Taneja.
Devangshu Dutta, Founder of a specialist consulting firm, Third Eyesight, thinks differently and points out that high-value items still make up a small slice of quick commerce sales. “The model thrives on simplicity, a limited product range on the platform’s end, and quick, low-friction decision-making on the consumer’s,” he explains.
That said, Dutta believes quick commerce can still play a strategic role for premium brands. “For high-value products, q-comm can be an excellent lever for driving velocity, testing market response, or amplifying brand visibility. But it should be viewed as one piece of the channel mix, not the primary sales driver.”
From the platform’s perspective, however, listing high-ticket products brings its own upside. “They create excitement, boost average transaction values, and improve realised margins,” Dutta notes. “Consumers are often drawn in by novelty, exclusivity, or status appeal, especially during big launches or limited-time promotions.”
Still, he adds a note of realism: “Premium and high-ticket purchases largely remain planned decisions. Most consumers continue to prefer established offline and e-commerce channels for such buys where trust in authenticity, return policies, and after-sales services still carry greater weight than instant gratification.”
Seshu Kumar Tirumala, Chief Buying and Merchandising Officer, BigBasket, says the company doesn’t look at electronics as a high-ticket item category but rather focuses on building a complete category experience for customers. “For example, if we list an Enfield bike, we’d also want to offer spare parts, servicing options, and extended warranties, because that’s how the category functions,” he explains.
Tirumala adds that BigBasket adopted the same approach when it ventured into mobiles and mobile accessories. “When we launched this category last year, it was a trial. Today, it’s a sizable part of our business,” he says. Currently, electronics and mobile accessories contribute 5–10% of BigBasket’s monthly sales, having grown 250–300% year-on-year since the first iPhone launch on the platform.
While the launch day drives the highest demand for flagship devices like the iPhone, Tirumala notes that the following one to two months see strong accessory sales, from AirPods and headphones to chargers and power banks. “On average, mobiles and accessories account for 7–8% of our total sales, peaking at 10% during the festive season. Overall, this category has grown from zero to 7–8% of our total business in just a year, and we expect it to reach around 25% next year,” he adds.
Currently, the platform offers select models from smartphone brands, including OnePlus, Realme, Redmi, Vivo, and Oppo.
The Bengaluru-based platform is now piloting the delivery of large home appliances across across select city areas in partnership with Croma. If successful, BigBasket plans to expand this model to other cities, further broadening its quick commerce offering beyond everyday essentials.
Taneja points out that the traditional e-commerce model, once driven by discounts and affordability, is now evolving toward experience and access. Over the next few years, two major shifts will shape this transformation: credit-first commerce, where EMIs become the default mode for premium purchases, and aspirational commerce, where consumers view e-commerce as the easiest path to lifestyle upgrades. Consequently, platforms will need to reposition themselves from being “where you save more” to “where you unlock more”, prioritising personalisation, trust, and a seamless shopping experience.
As quick commerce matures, it is no longer just about instant gratification; it’s becoming a bridge between aspiration and accessibility.
Platforms are proving that speed, trust, and seamless experience can coexist with high-value purchases.
(Published in IMPACT)
