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December 14, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
Mumbai, 14 December 2024
Fast fashion was on a slow lane in the last fiscal year. Sales growth slowed for top retailers and fast fashion brands, show the latest regulatory filings of Marks & Spencer, Zara, H&M, Levi’s, Lifestyle, Uniqlo, Benetton and Celio. The bottom line too had taken a hit, with most brands posting lower profits in the fiscal year ended March 31. Sales growth of H&M and Zara fell from 40% in FY23 to 11% and 8% in FY24, show the filings with the Registrar of Companies. Levi’s growth slowed to 4% from 54% in FY23, while that of Uniqlo halved to 31% from 60%.
The current year is not looking good either, as sticky inflation and stagnant income weigh on consumer spending on discretionary products, say experts.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said the job market has been under pressure and slower income growth for urban consumer impacted demand, a trend likely to continue even during FY25.
“There is a visible slowdown led by the urban middle class who buy branded products. These brands have been targeting young upwardly mobile consumers, who are tightening the purse strings due to the current economic circumstances of hiring slack and fewer jobs,” said Dutta. “The situation is not hunky-dory at all, and this will continue over the next few quarters.”
Being the world’s most populous country, India is an attractive market for apparel brands, especially with youngsters increasingly embracing western-style clothing. But most international and premium brands have been competing for a relatively narrow slice of the population pie in large urban centres.
Over the past few years, top global apparel and fast fashion brands struck a strong chord with young customers, racking up sales growth of between 40% and 60% in FY23, bucking the trend in a market where the overall demand for discretionary products started slowing down. This has reversed now.
Consumers started reducing non-essential spending, such as on apparel, lifestyle products, electronics and dining out since early last year due to high inflation, increase in interest rates, job losses in sectors like startups and IT, and an overall slowdown in the economy.
According to the Retailers Association of India (RAI), sales growth in organised retail segments such as apparel, footwear, beauty and quick service restaurants halved to 9% last year and slowed further to about 5% in the first six months in the current fiscal year. This slowdown came after a surge in spending across segments-from clothes to cars-in the post-pandemic period, triggered by revenge shopping.
“The base post-pandemic was extremely high, and that kind of growth is not sustainable as there is nothing spectacular in economy to drive demand,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, chief executive officer at the RAI that represents organised retailers. “Our bet was on the festive and wedding season, but we will have to wait and watch until next year for the performance numbers,” he said.
(Published in Economic Times)
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October 8, 2024
Nandini Singh, Business Standard
11 October 2024, New Delhi
Reliance Retail, the country’s largest retailer, has officially entered the booming quick commerce space, intensifying competition for players like Zomato-owned Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and BigBasket. The company began offering quick commerce services through its e-commerce platform JioMart in select areas of Navi Mumbai and Bengaluru last weekend, a move that signals its intent to disrupt the segment, as reported by The Economic Times.
Initially, Reliance would start with selling grocery items from its network of 3,000 retail stores nationwide. However, the company has ambitious plans to extend its offerings to value fashion and small electronics, such as smartphones, laptops, and speakers, according to a senior executive at the company. The quick commerce services will be fulfilled through Reliance’s existing network of stores, including Reliance Digital and Trends outlets.
Reliance plans to scale up its quick commerce operations across India by the end of this month. The company aims to deliver most orders within 10-15 minutes, with the remaining fulfilled in under 30 minutes. Reliance will leverage its logistics arm, Grab, which it had previously acquired, to facilitate timely deliveries.
Unlike other quick commerce operators that rely on dark stores or neighbourhood warehouses, Reliance will use its existing retail infrastructure for fulfilment. Analysts have pointed out that this strategy might pose challenges in delivering within the 30-minute window, especially in cities that experience traffic congestion during peak hours.
A fee-free strategy to woo customers
In a bid to attract customers, Reliance has chosen not to charge delivery fees, platform fees, or surge fees, regardless of order size. This contrasts sharply with competitors like Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and BigBasket, which levy additional charges for deliveries. A key part of Reliance’s strategy is targeting smaller cities and towns, where quick commerce operators are yet to make significant inroads. By focusing on these untapped markets, Reliance aims to create a strong foothold and gain a competitive edge over its rivals.
The company is also positioning itself as a provider of a more extensive range of products, linking its entire inventory to the quick commerce platform. With 10,000-12,000 stock keeping units (SKUs), Reliance’s offering will far exceed the typical range available on competing platforms.
Targeting 1,150 cities and 5,000 pin codes
Reliance’s goal is to expand its quick commerce service to 1,150 cities, covering 5,000 pin codes where it already operates grocery stores. This extensive reach, combined with its focus on smaller towns and cities, is expected to give Reliance a significant advantage over its competitors, many of which are still focused on metro areas.
“Reliance has overhauled the JioMart delivery model. Previously, deliveries took 1-2 days, with small trucks delivering multiple orders sequentially. Now, the focus is on quick commerce. Each order will be delivered individually by a bike or cycle, and each grocery store will cover a 3-kilometre radius,” the senior executive told The Economic Times.
Refining delivery processes
Earlier this year, Reliance attempted to reduce delivery times for JioMart to just a few hours, or at least the same day, as part of its hyperlocal delivery initiative. This process has now been fine-tuned further to offer deliveries within 10-30 minutes — a key market demand, according to the executive.
Although a spokesperson for Reliance Retail declined to comment on the developments, industry experts believe the company’s aggressive push into quick commerce could significantly alter the competitive landscape.
Blended delivery model could be the future
Devangshu Dutta, chief executive at consultancy firm Third Eyesight, told The Economic Times that Reliance might adopt a blended approach in the long run, offering quick commerce deliveries in areas close to its stores and scheduled deliveries in areas further away.
“Reliance is clearly in market share acquisition mode in the quick commerce space, and waiving transaction fees while offering higher discounts is part of that strategy. There is ample opportunity for deep-pocketed players like Reliance to dominate this fast-growing segment. Their track record in retail suggests that they are willing to experiment aggressively once they find a model that works,” Dutta said.
For fast-moving consumer goods companies, quick commerce is rapidly becoming a vital channel, accounting for 30-35 per cent of total online sales, making it a lucrative area for major players like Reliance to tap into.
(Published in Business Standard)
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October 7, 2024
Writankar Mukherjee, Economic Times
7 October 2024
Reliance Retail has initiated efforts to enter the thriving quick commerce market in a move that is set to escalate competition for Zomato-owned Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart and BigBasket, among others. The country’s largest retailer has started offering quick commerce services in select areas in Navi Mumbai and Bengaluru through its ecommerce platform JioMart since last weekend.
It will initially sell grocery items from its retail stores totalling about 3,000 nationwide, eventually adding value fashion and small electronic products such as smartphones, laptops and speakers, a senior executive said. All orders will be fulfilled from its own network of stores including Reliance Digital and Trends.
The retail arm of Reliance Industries plans to rapidly scale up its quick commerce venture pan-India by this month-end with the aim to deliver most orders in 10-15 minutes and the rest within 30 minutes, the executive said. The company will use its acquired logistics service Grab for the fulfilment.
Reliance, however, doesn’t have any plan to set up dark stores or neighbourhood warehouses, unlike other quick commerce operators, the executive said. Analysts said this may become a challenge in delivering orders within 30 minutes in large cities where traffic is high during peak hours.
To entice customers, Reliance won’t charge any delivery fee, platform fee or surge fee irrespective of the order value, and keep a major focus on untapped smaller cities and towns where quick commerce operators like Blinkit are yet to enter, the executive said. Other platforms have a delivery fee and platform fee.
Reliance plans to offer a wider choice of products of 10,000-12,000 stock keeping units by linking its entire store inventory to the quick commerce business, which too is much more than rivals.
Eventually, the company aims to cover 1,150 cities spanning 5,000 pin codes where it runs grocery stores. The executive said the company would target a bigger share of business from towns and smaller cities hitherto untapped by quick commerce firms.
“Reliance has reworked the way orders are delivered for JioMart. Earlier, orders had a scheduled delivery taking 1-2 days by small trucks who would take multiple orders and deliver them one by one. Now, all grocery orders will be quick commerce where one delivery bike or cycle will deliver one order. Each grocery store will cover a 3 KM radius,” the executive said.
Earlier this year, the company tried to reduce JioMart delivery timings to a few hours or at least the same day under its hyperlocal initiative. It has fine-tuned the process further to 10-30 minute delivery. “This has become a top-of-the-kind requirement in the market right now,” the executive said.
A spokesperson for Reliance Retail didn’t respond to ET’s queries.
Devangshu Dutta, chief executive at consulting firm Third Eyesight, said Reliance can ultimately use a blended approach of quick commerce deliveries in areas near its stores and scheduled deliveries a bit far away.
“Since they are in a market share acquisition mode in quick commerce, charging no transaction fees and offering higher discounts on products is a given. There is significant scope for deep-pocketed players like Reliance to strengthen presence in quick commerce. They have aggressively backed other experiments in the retail business once they worked, and may do it again,” said Dutta.
For fast-moving consumer goods companies, quick commerce is the fastest growing channel, accounting for 30-35% of total online sales.
(Published in Economic Times)
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September 16, 2024
Sesa Sen, NDTV Profit
16 September 2024
As India’s economy grows and digital technologies reshape consumer behavior, the future of kirana stores—the quintessential neighbourhood grocery shops—hangs precariously in the balance.
These soap-to-staple sellers, once impervious to change, now confront an existential threat from quick commerce players like Blinkit, Instamart, Zepto, and from modern retailers such as DMart and Star Bazaar, raising a pivotal question: Can kiranas survive the pressure of change, or will they die a slow death?
The All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation, that represents four lakh packaged goods distributors and stockists, has recently raised alarms, urging Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal to investigate the unchecked proliferation of quick commerce platforms and its potential ramifications for small traders.
Their concerns are not unfounded. Data suggests that the share of modern retail, including online commerce, which is currently below 10%, is set to cross 30% over the next 3-5 years. Much of this growth will come at the cost of traditional retail.
“Unless the government takes on an activist role to support the smallest of business owners, the shift toward large corporate formats is inevitable,” according to Devangshu Dutta, head of retail consultancy Third Eyesight.
Casualties Of The Boom
Madan Sachdev, a second-generation grocer operating Vandana Stores in eastern Delhi, has thrived in the recent years, adapting to the digital age by taking orders via WhatsApp and employing extra hands for home delivery.
Despite having weathered the storm of competition from giants like Amazon and BigBazaar, he now finds himself disheartened, as his monthly sales have halved to about Rs 30,000, all thanks to quick commerce.
Sachdev is worried about meeting expenses such as rent, his children’s education, and other household bills. He finds himself at a crossroads, uncertain about how to modernise his store or adopt new-age strategies in order to attract customers in an increasingly competitive market.
India’s $600 billion grocery market, a cornerstone for quick commerce, is largely dominated by more than 13 million local mom-and-pop stores.
Retailers like Sachdev are also seeing a steep decline in their profit margins from FMCG companies, which now hover around 10-12%, down from the 18-20% margins seen before the Covid-19 pandemic. The consumer goods companies are instead offering higher margins to quick commerce platforms so that they can afford the price tags.
Quick deliveries account for $5 billion, or 45%, of the country’s $11 billion online grocery market, according to Goldman Sachs. It is projected to capture 70% of the online grocery market, forecasted to grow to $60 billion by 2030, as consumers increasingly prioritise convenience and speed.
Many of the mom-and-pop shops are family-run and have been in business for generations. Yet they lack the resources to modernise and compete effectively with larger chains. Modern retail businesses, including quick commerce, begin with significantly more capital, thanks to funding from corporate investors, venture capital, private equity, and public markets.
“They can scale quickly and capture market share due to a superior product-service mix, larger infrastructure, and more robust business processes,” said Dutta.
Moreover, their ability to engage in price competition poses a challenge for small retailers and distributors, making it difficult for them to compete.
“This is something that has happened worldwide, in the largest markets, and I don’t think India will be an exception,” Dutta said, adding that it would be incomplete to single out a specific format of corporate business such as quick commerce as the sole villain in this situation.
“India is a tough, friction-laden environment at any given point in time, including government processes which don’t make it any easier,” he said.
Peer Pressure
Data from research firm Kantar shows that general trade, which comprises kirana and paan-beedi shops, have grown 4.2% on a 12-month basis in June, while quick commerce grew 29% during the same period.
Shoppers are becoming more omnichannel, rather than gravitating towards one particular channel, said Manoj Menon, director- commercial, Kantar Worldpanel, South Asia. “While the growth [for quick commerce and e-commerce] might appear to have declined compared to a year ago, a point to note is that the base for these channels has significantly grown. Therefore, achieving this level of growth is still commendable.”
Consumer goods companies such as Hindustan Unilever Ltd., Dabur India Ltd., Tata Consumer Products Ltd., etc., have acknowledged the salience of quick commerce to their packaged food, personal and homecare products. The platform currently comprises roughly 40% of their digital sales.
“We are working all the major players in the quick commerce space and devising product mix and portfolio. This is a very high growth channel for us,” according to Mohit Malhotra, chief executive officer, Dabur India.
Elara Capital analysts have pointed out that the share of quick commerce is expected to rise to60% in the near future with e-commerce and modern trade turning costlier for FMCG brands than quick commerce. “The larger brands tend to make better margins on quick-commerce platforms versus e-commerce due to lower discounts on the former,” it said in a report.
However, it is too premature to draw a parallel between kirana and quick commerce in terms of competition, given the significant size difference.
The average spend per consumer on FMCG in kirana stores stands at Rs. 21,285 annually while the same is Rs. 4,886 for quick commerce, according to Menon.
Rural Vs Urban Divide
Quick commerce is still an urban phenomenon. In contrast, in rural settings, where internet penetration is still catching up and access to large retail chains is limited, kirana stores continue to thrive.
According to Naveen Malpani, partner, Grant Thornton Bharat, while the growth of quick commerce is undeniable, this channel is not poised to replace traditional retail, which still has a wider reach in the country. “It will complement older models, filling a niche for immediate, smaller purchases. Also, a 10-20-minute delivery may not have a strong market pull in rural markets where distance and time are not much of a concern.”
Yet many others believe, even in these areas, the challenge is palpable.
The small businesses are beginning to feel the sting of same slow decline that once befell the ubiquitous telephone booths in the era of mobile phone, according to Sameer Gandotra, chief executive officer of Frendy, a start-up that is building ‘mini DMart’ in small towns where giants like Reliance and Tatas have yet to establish their presence.
As rural customers slowly start to embrace digital shopping and seek more variety, kirana stores must adapt or risk becoming obsolete, he said.
Besides, the popularity of quick commerce is set to challenge the dominance of incumbent e-commerce platforms, especially in categories such as beauty and personal care, packaged foods and apparel.
“Quick commerce is primarily operational in metros and tier 1 markets, which is impacting the sales of traditional companies in these areas. However, if quick-commerce players were to extend their operations to tier 2 and tier 3, it would even challenge companies such as DMart and Nykaa, and would pare sales and profitability,” noted analysts at Elara Securities.
Frendy’s Gandotra believes the journey for kirana stores is not a lost cause, but it requires strategic interventions. Many kirana store owners struggle to integrate point-of-sale systems, inventory management software, or even digital payment solutions. These stores need to embrace technology.
Another aspect is the need for policy support. Regulations to ensure fair competition can prevent monopolisation by large retailers. Additionally, subsidies, tax benefits, and grants for infrastructure improvements can help small businesses adapt to changing market dynamics. With renewed support, kirana stores can continue to be the backbone of Indian retail.
Nonetheless, there will be some who’ll be left behind during this shift. Analysts at Elara Capital warn that the swift rise of quick-commerce platforms, combined with aggressive discounting, could wipe off 25-30% of traditional grocery stores.
(Published on NDTV Profit)
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August 19, 2024
Sagar Malviya & Faizan Haidar, Economic Times
19 August 2024, Mumbai/New Delhi
About a dozen listed lifestyle, grocery retailers and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) reduced their employee count by nearly 26,000 in FY24, retreating from the hiring spree of the past two financial years after they slowed down store expansion rate amid weakening demand.
According to their latest annual reports, the reduction was completely led by five retailers – Reliance Industries’ retail arm, Titan, Raymond, Page and Spencers – which saw their combined workforce decline 17% or by 52,000 people. The staff count was across permanent and contractual employees and adjusted for attrition in the retail segment, the second largest employer after agriculture. These retailers had a combined workforce of 429,000 people in FY24 compared to 455,000 employees a year ago.
“There is a shortage of talent and we are trying to tie up with universities so that the industry has the option to hire. Some companies might have reduced staff due to shutting of some business, but companies like Shoppers Stop and Trent continue to expand and will require staff,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO of Retailers Association of India that represents organised retailers in the country.
Consumers had started reducing non-essential spending such as that on apparel, lifestyle products, electronics and dining out since Diwali 2022 due to inflation, increase in interest rates, job losses in sectors like startups and IT, and an overall slowdown in the economy. India’s retail sales expansion slowed to 4% last year after a surge in spending across segments-from clothes to cars-in the post-pandemic period, triggered by revenge shopping.
RIL in its annual report said the overall voluntary separations in FY24 were lower than FY23 and the retail industry typically has a high employee turnover rate, especially in store operations.
“Store productivity usually happens in cycles and we have seen consumers unleash their spending post pandemic, which led to retailers expanding their network or square footage. However, if some of the stores are unviable, then management teams are now highly objective, even ruthless, and will shut stores,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight. “In addition, any company planning to list would like to have healthy and lean operations, although we cannot pin-point it to Reliance in this case.”
Weak sales saw these retailers having the slowest pace of store expansions in at least five years at 9%. The retail sector took 7.1 million square feet of space across top eight cities in 2023, which is expected to dip to 6-6.5 million sq ft in 2024, according to commercial real estate services firm CBRE.
“There’s an enormous management bandwidth requirement to just get this entire ship running in the right trajectory, right direction, and with the relevant speed. We are thinking about what this company will be 10 years from now. And hence, if you want to reach there in a nice way without too much damage or bruises, then what is the kind of talent we need to have today in the next 2 years, in the next 3 years?” Avenue Supermarts CEO & MD Neville Noronha asked investors.
(Published in Economic Times)
