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March 18, 2024
Christina Moniz, Financial Express
March 18, 2024
It is not difficult to understand why e-commerce firm Flipkart wants a bite of the Q-commerce pie.
India’s quick commerce market has been growing year-on-year at 77% to reach $2.8 billion in GMV (gross merchandise value) in 2023, according to a Redseer report. In comparison, e-commerce has been growing at 14-15% year-on-year. No one would dispute that with instant deliveries of products and groceries in 10-20 minutes, quick commerce firms like the Zomato-owned Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart have changed the face of e-commerce and retail over the past few years.
While quick commerce thrives, none of the players in this ring are profitable yet. According to Devangshu Dutta, CEO at Third Eyesight, most quick commerce firms are in an expensive market acquisition phase and are at least a year away from profitability — perhaps longer. He expects that the unit economics for these companies will improve. “Some of the quick commerce players have created a substantial consumer base, which is growing in the frequency of transactions, moving to higher order values and transacting more products with potentially better margins,” says Dutta.
Both Zepto and Blinkit expect to turn profitable in FY25, as per their public statements.
So what are the primary challenges? “Traditional large e-commerce players face obstacles in facilitating last-mile deliveries, establishing dark stores, managing supply chains effectively, and navigating fierce market competition,” says Anshul Garg, managing partner & head, Publicis Commerce India.
The other key challenge for the late entrants is that customers seldom switch platforms. This is different from the way customers shop for products like electronics on e-commerce, where they compare prices/ deals across multiple e-commerce marketplaces. Brands like Flipkart need to define their playbook by maybe exploring categories other than grocery if they are to make a dent in this market.
As things stand, quick commerce has a mere 7% of the potential market. The total addressable market is estimated at $45 billion, higher than food delivery, as per JM Financial. Blinkit leads the market with a 46% share, followed by Swiggy Instamart at 27%, and Zepto at 21%.
Growing-up pangs
Kushal Bhatnagar, associate partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants, explains that there are broadly three ways that Q-commerce firms are working towards profitability. The first is by pushing higher priced items on their platforms and bumping up higher average order values. They’re also foraying into non-grocery segments such as cosmetics and headphones.
The other lever is ensuring dark store efficiencies. “While dark stores are an added cost, most platforms have a solid understanding of the demand across micro markets and are able to extract better profitability from each dark store. So the trend is positive, even if profitability is still to be achieved,” explains Bhatnagar.
For a dark store to deliver ROI and become profitable, it needs to cross 1,200-1,300 daily orders.
Some players like Zepto are also experimenting with a nominal platform fee of Rs. 2 per order, which they sometimes increase during peak times — by up to Rs. 10 — to gain from a surge in demand. Some are also implementing 12-15% fees for orders under Rs. 500, nudging customers to spend more.
Ad revenue is another important lever driving growth for these platforms, especially as D2C brands hop on board and advertise on them to reach GenZ and millennial consumers in metros and tier-I markets. Advertising revenue is around 3% of a platform’s GMV, and it is expected to keep growing.
FMCG and F&B are the top advertising categories on quick commerce currently but that can change as platforms move into higher value categories. “Quick commerce is also venturing into unconventional categories such as electronics, mobile and large appliances. If all goes according to plan, we can anticipate a significant shift in advertising contribution, given that these categories boast higher average selling prices, prompting advertisers to adopt a slightly more aggressive stance,” says Shashank Rathore, vice-president, e-commerce at Interactive Avenues (IPG Mediabrands India).
(Published in Financial Express)
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February 21, 2024
Sharleen D’Souza, Business Standard
Mumbai, 20 February 2024
Over the past year, Amul has undergone a transformative journey, evolving from a dairy-centric entity to a comprehensive foods company.
Since 2022, PepsiCo India, too, has embarked on extensive launches in the food category.
Not to be left behind, ITC, which has been introducing an average of 100 fastmoving consumer goods (FMCG) products across categories every year, has also launched a number of packaged food items.
The shelves in stores are packed. The options on e-commerce platforms are dizzyingly aplenty. The consumer is spoilt for choice. Which flavour of oats to go for? What packet of chips to pick? Should one reach out for those mouthwatering frozen snacks or think healthy and opt for atta (wheat flour) cookies?
Companies are pulling out all possible goodies in the form of packed food.
It is a strategic shift initiated during the pandemic and which has proven to be a lasting trend. During the pandemic, when other businesses were curtailing expenses, food companies started launching new products as consumers turned to packaged food.
Amul identified a growing preference for purity during the pandemic, and realised that this preference was here to stay. The company aggressively expanded its product range, venturing beyond dairy into items such as organic dal, atta, and basmati rice.
“We noticed that consumers were moving from unbranded to branded products, and were increasingly seeking out those that would boost their immunity,” says Jayen Mehta, managing director, Gujarat
Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation. Even later, as the world moved out of the pandemic, the preference for packaged foods continued.
Convenience foods, which had gained prominence during the pandemic, sustained their popularity. The widespread adoption of modern retail formats, including brick-and-mortar, e-commerce and quick commerce, proved to be further growth enablers for packaged foods. These formats facilitate the display of entire product ranges to a larger consumer base, says brand expert Devangshu Dutta, founder at Third Eyesight, and that helps.
Growing platter
Today, while Amul’s flagship product, packaged milk, is recording double-digit growth, Mehta says the company is also focusing on premiumisation by introducing artisanal cheese and products such as
Amul High Protein Buttermilk, high protein lassi and shakes, and whey protein.
ITC’s diverse launches, meanwhile, include lump-free Aashirvaad Besan, frozen breads, Dark Fantasy centre-fill cookies, and a variety of Master Chef frozen snacks such as paneer pakoda and onion rings, B
Natural fruit juices, Aashirvaad Svasti ghee, and so on.
Last year, as the focus turned to millets, and 2023 was declared International Year of Millets, the Kolkata-headquartered conglomerate saw a healthy business opportunity. It launched ITC Mission Millet with
an array of millet-based products: Sunfeast millet cookies, Aashirvaad millet mixes, YiPPee! millet-based noodles, Candyman Fantastik chocsticks with millets, and more.
“The company will continue with its focus on consumer-centric innovation and product launches across its portfolio,” says Hemant Malik, executive director, ITC. A finger on the consumer’s pulse, product research and development through ITC’s Life Sciences and Technology Centre, and an extensive omnichannel distribution infrastructure are helping the game.
PepsiCo India, too, is in the race to capture a growing share of the packaged food market. How serious the company is about this can be gauged from the fact that since 2022, its launches in the packaged food category have been the highest since it entered the food space in 1995.
It is not even two months into 2024 and PepsiCo has already launched three flavours in oats: masala magic, herby cheese, and mixed berries.
Last year, it had four launches and introduced seven new flavours in Doritos and Kurkure. And in 2022, it launched five new products and eight new flavours in Doritos, Quaker Oats and Lay’s.
In Lay’s, it went premium and launched Lay’s Gourmet.
Sravani Babu, associate director and category lead at Quaker Oats, says while the category is nascent compared to other FMCG segments, it is growing in double digits. So, the three new flavours were a
considered call.
While “basic oats continue to be the leading segment in the category,” she says, with these new flavours, the company is looking at oats as not just something one eats for breakfast. With PepsiCo keen on broadening the oats portfolio, the bowl is expected to see even more variety in the time to come.
Food in a jiffy
Quick commerce, which promises deliveries within 10 minutes, has also accelerated in-home consumption trends, said Saumya Rathor, category lead of potato chips at PepsiCo India, in an interview.
Consumer habits, she said, take decades to evolve, but the pandemic hastened that shift. So, the convenience-driven traction for packaged foods has persisted. E-commerce and quick commerce have only expanded packaged snack penetration across the country.
In response to the growing demand, PepsiCo India has announced its first food manufacturing plant in Nalbari, Assam, with an investment of Rs. 778 crore ($95 million). Scheduled to be operational in 2025,
this expansive facility spans 44.2 acres and underscores the company’s desire to make the most of the rising consumption trends in the foods sector.
Other food companies, including ITC and Amul, have also embraced an assertive stance, launching products strategically.
The trajectory indicates a promising future for India’s packaged food sector. The shelves are set to overflow.
Size of the packaged foods market: In 2022, India’s packaged food market size was $2.7 billion and it is projected to reach $3.4 billion by 2027
(According to Statista)
(Published in Business Standard)
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January 26, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
Mumbai, 26 January 2024
Hindustan Unilever and United Spirits together present a study in contrasts that seemingly reinforces the current purchasing trends in India’s consumption sector. At the country’s biggest consumer-goods and alco-bev companies, respectively, premium brands are flying off the shelves, but mass-priced products remain relative stragglers.
“At the premium and luxury ends, they (consumers) are continuing to spend, continuing to experiment, continuing to do repertoire drinking, especially experimenting with the white spirits, drinking at home,” Hina Nagarajan, managing director at Diageo-controlled United Spirits, told investors in a post-earnings call. “However, Middle India, or the value-oriented consumer, is actually cutting down on the number of occasions (to spend) to manage their money.”
The maker of Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff posted a 12.4% volume decline in the mass-priced segments, while pricier prestige and above categories saw a 10% growth during the December quarter. The Indian unit of the world’s biggest distiller said it expects this trend in purchasing behaviour to continue over the next couple of quarters.
At Hindustan Unilever, the country’s biggest consumer company by both sales and market value, the story isn’t vastly different. The FMCG bellwether said its premium portfolio expanded more than two-and-a-half times the mass segment over the past few quarters.
This trend was seen even in the rural areas that make up nearly half the annual sales at the maker of Dove soaps and Glow & Lovely skin creams. Pricier products now constitute a third of Hindustan Unilever’s total sales. “In rural areas, there are people who can afford and spend money, and hence, the premium portfolio in has also grown well – like it has grown in urban parts of the business,” Rohit Jawa, managing director, Hindustan Unilever, told investors after the December-quarter earnings. “We have always seen that essential and discretionary are the two realities of (the) rural (market).”
Incomes & Business Cycles
This dichotomy in purchase decisions appears to be a function of income disparity and is market-agnostic, experts believe. For instance, rural India that accounts for nearly 40% of the overall FMCG market saw a noticeable drop in demand for a year due to inflation and erratic monsoons. Cities, meanwhile, appear to be at the vanguard of overall consumption demand across categories as urban incomes, typically linked to organised sectors of the economy, are more resilient to business cycles and promise better protection against broader inflationary pressures. “Even if the consuming class, mainly upper and middle class, saw an impact on their incomes, it is still not significant to affect their discretionary spends,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a strategy consulting firm. “There is a buffer available for higher income growth and it will hit them later in any economic downturn. At present, it is felt in the lower-income segment.”
Over the past decade and a half, consumer companies expanded sales by pushing both pricier and affordable products. Companies still have budget-friendly options in their portfolio, but lower incomes, especially in rural areas, appear to have dented purchasing power at the budget end of the market. “The real pressure on the wallet is on the lower side, where we do see upgrades are not happening from country liquor to either the popular category or the lower end of prestige,” said Nagarajan at United Spirits.
(Published in Economic Times)
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January 20, 2024
20 January 2024, Mumbai
Economic Times
Brand managers love a viral campaign that gives them a louder voice in the company boardroom, and leverage during appraisal conversations. An event the size and scale of the Ram Temple inauguration in Ayodhya, to be held on January 22, could be a means to get all this. Yet, brand strategists observe that major consumer brands are focusing on an on-ground presence with kiosks and hoardings around the venue-a more below-the-line (BTL) marketing approach instead of going for a mass media moment-marketing campaign that could fetch them the much-desired social media chatter and a subsequent virality badge.
Branding consultants believe there could be multiple reasons for this. For starters, January may not be a marketer’s favourite month to spend on a big campaign considering the Diwali season – when brands incur huge ad spends to drive festive consumption – concluded not too long ago.
Further, “there are various ways to stimulate consumption around religious festivals. A temple inauguration, while a good opportunity for TV brands to perhaps push people into watching the event on a big-sized television screen, is difficult for many brands to find a direct connection with,” says Ambi Parameswaran, founder of Mumbai-based brand advisory, Brand-building.com. “How does a clothing brand ask people to buy more clothes when they’re not attending the event?” he asks, adding that brands in the airline and travel aggregator sector are likely to start mainstream advertising once the temple is open to the public.
“Logistics and infrastructure brands involved in the construction of the temple will also most probably start advertising their involvement in the project in some time, to showcase it as a key part of their portfolio,” he notes.
Management consultant Devangshu Dutta says that “brands looking to get a boost from the event will still be treading cautiously,” as it is one of the most sensitive political issues pre-dating even the country’s independence. “We may see vanilla marketing, such as congratulatory or celebratory billboards from brands. But marketers will not want to hit any off note that can get hugely controversial, so they may avoid going for something clever or humorous,” he adds. Dutta is the founder of Delhi-based strategic advisory firm Third Eyesight.
Shagun Ohri, founder of Bengaluru-based branding outfit, The Satori Studio, says a client recently approached them for a major promotional activity ahead of the launch . “It was a founder-led brand keen to do something around the event as it aligns with their belief system. But they dropped the idea eventually as it would not have directly helped the brand’s sales and marketing objectives,” says Ohri.
With Ayodhya getting a full makeover, marketing consultants are keen to see the tourism trends that will emerge soon and the brand spending that will follow. “A new generation of India has gotten into religious tourism. It will be interesting to see whether popular consumer brands that are planning to set up shops around the temple area will be able to draw customers in droves,” says Ohri. “For a religious place to become a tourist spot requires a lot of work. Tirupati has taken years to create that pull.”
(Published in Economic Times)
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January 8, 2024
Yash Bhatia, Afaqs
8 January 2024
In the 10th episode of Zerodha co-founder Nikhil Kamath’s YouTube podcast series, WTF, Aadit Palicha, co-founder, Zepto, says that consumer goods are the fastest-growing category for its quick commerce business. Initially, quick commerce brands just focussed on serving impulse grocery needs, but now they have changed their way to serve regular planned purchases too.
Major players like Zepto, Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and BBNow are expanding their offerings in gifting, makeup, ready-to-eat, baby care, pet care, meat, poultry and more to cater to a wider range of consumer needs and preferences.
Through our interviews with brands like Bombay Shaving Company, Bevzilla and Plum, it is evident that Q-comm business contributes approximately 10-25% of online revenue for different brands.
Also, according to a report by Redseer, the Q-comm market is expected to reach almost $5.5 billion by 2025. The report highlights, that these platforms can up their game by going beyond just grocery and extend their offerings to other consumables, electronics, newspapers and more.
It shows that quick commerce players would focus on other categories to reach this milestone. But, are brands ready for it? If yes, how is their strategy different for this model?
Aditi Handa, co-founder of The Baker’s Dozen, an artisanal bakery, states, “In our category, once the customers figure out a product in the physical store, then they tend to buy again on the quick commerce platforms rather than visiting a store. It works well in our category, as there is no need to touch and feel the product.”
Baker’s Dozen makes 60-65% of its online sales on Q-comm platforms.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight says that quick commerce has spread across various product categories and he believes, “It is driven more by buzz than customer needs. Unless we meet a core demand with a large consumer market, there’s no sustained road to profit.”
Deepti Karthik, fractional CMO, SuperBottoms, says, “In the diaper category, there are a lot of unplanned purchases. We target customers who’re buying other products, and eventually get trails from them.”
She points out that a lot of gifting happens in the quick commerce segment. “Gift packs can be a great solution our brand can leverage.”
She predicts that for the baby-care brand, quick commerce will contribute 3-5% of overall revenue, led by gifting as a category.
Apart from the reduced delivery time, is there a reason that customers are opting to shop on quick commerce platforms?
Handa answers that two factors work in favour of Q-comm platforms: discounts and convenience. “As these players are expanding their portfolio, customers will find more reasons to go on these apps.”
Is the quick commerce business driven by celebrations?
India is renowned for its diverse festivities. Quick commerce platforms capitalise on this by selling event-related or topical assortments. For instance, they offer flutes for Krishna Jayanti, Ganesha idols for Ganesh Chaturthi, Christmas decorations for the holiday, decorative items for Diwali, and gold and silver coins for Dhanteras.
These platforms are also curating special web and app pages for such occasions, even for regional festivals like Chauth Puja. In 2023, Blinkit curated a specific page dedicated to the wedding season.
Karthik states, “The major business of this sector is driven by consumables and FMCG products. On special occasions, e-commerce brands used to curate specific products, which Q-commerce is now doing. The market share of the other modes is now being taken by the quick commerce players on festivals. That’s why every e-commerce is looking to launch its version of Q-commerce, like Amazon Fresh by Amazon, and BBnow by Big Basket.”
Handa believes differently and states that quick commerce is not taking up the market share of any other modes. “Currently we’re buying more than what we need. Quick commerce is creating some new markets, and people are spending more money as it is easy to spend now.”
Will Q-commerce take over e-commerce?
As the country embraces digital commerce, the battle between e-commerce and Q-commerce is intensifying. While e-commerce has a well-established presence with a vast user base, Q-commerce offers unmatched speed and efficiency. As Q-commerce players foray into other categories, will they take over e-commerce?
Ritesh Ghosal, former chief of marketing at Croma believes that Q-comm will not replace e-commerce. He says that Q-commerce will only be a successful mode for urgently needed products like trimmers, headphones etc.
Handa predicts, “In our category, Q-commerce will replace e-commerce purely based on better service. The only advantage that e-commerce holds is a variety of stock keeping units (SKUs). Like, some products will have a presence in e-commerce only like English Cheddar cheese, it will not be there in Q-comm, a customer can only get it through e-commerce.”
She says that quick commerce also provides a fast way to experiment with new products.
Kartik, says e-commerce will always be at the main stage for the brand and believes Q-commerce will be an incremental business for them.
She has observed that in quick commerce if a product gets listed, it starts to sell faster and gets a quick start as compared to the e-commerce route.
Challenges
While the benefits of quick commerce are evident for customers, these players in the backend face a lot of challenges including warehousing, labour expenses, and, most importantly, the orders are low-value, therefore the margins are less.
Balasubramanian Narayanan, vice president, of Teamlease services points out that the consumer preferences and buying patterns in the quick commerce segment evolve rapidly, making data collection and analysis a crucial aspect.
“Balancing data collection with user privacy is a key challenge. The data insights can help to create personalised experiences, predict demands, and improve operational efficiency. But this can be a challenge in this mode.”
Handa says in quick commerce, the biggest challenge is the stock keeping unit (SKU) mix, SKU selection is critical.
“Brands like Amazon, and Flipkart allow a plethora of SKUs, while quick commerce just allows a limited number, due to limitation of warehouse space and delivery time. The SKU selection by the brand becomes a critical aspect.”
In the physical realm, shelf presence plays an important role in reaching customers, in the online world, optimising the online presence is crucial to get the customers’ attention. She highlights that in quick commerce, the fight is to be at the top of the search bar.
“To be at the top, the brand should generate organic sales, secondly it’s about keyword bidding. A keyword that would search customers to find the product from the brand. The brand pays quick commerce players for this.”
Ghosal also agrees with this and states, “In the Q-commerce arena, most searches are by category rather than by brand. The brands have to tick more boxes in terms of categories/searches so that customers tend to look at them.”
(With additional inputs: Ruchika Jha)
(Published in Afaqs)
