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July 1, 2025
Sankalp Phartiyal, Bloomberg
1 July 2025
Just last week, Amazon.com Inc.’s India unit announced the launch of five new fulfillment centers to speed up e-commerce deliveries across the South Asian country’s smaller towns and cities. The online shopping giant’s statement included the words fast, faster and fastest nine times. That’s because delivery speed has never mattered more in India than it does now.
Homegrown firms such as Eternal Ltd.’s Blinkit, Swiggy Ltd.’s Instamart and Zepto are now delivering everything from pricey herbal skincare to Bluetooth speakers in just 10 minutes, making Amazon’s overnight shipping look comparatively lethargic. With one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies and a swelling middle class that’s looking for instant gratification, India is growing ever more important — and demanding.
It’s no surprise that the as-yet-unprofitable Amazon India is investing another $233 million to boost its delivery network and infrastructure in the country this year. It’s already committed more than $11 billion in India, the bulk of which has gone toward building online retail from the ground up. Its upstart rivals, also in the red, are driving a behavioral shift and are quickly building up their order volumes to the point where they’ll be able to strike distribution deals with consumer brands at an Amazon-like scale. That’s the mood music I’m hearing from local investors and it’s why Amazon is actively trying to counteract these nascent fast-commerce players.
Take me as an example of changing habits. Last week, I found myself bereft of shaving supplies on the morning of a day that featured an important meeting. I ordered a razor, brush and shaving cream via Swiggy and they were with me within 10 minutes. That sort of convenience is (probably) why I neglected
to restock my bathroom cabinet in advance — I simply don’t need to spend time planning small purchases anymore.
What does this mean for Amazon? Well, beyond everyday conveniences, Amazon and Walmart Inc.’s Flipkart may also lose out on higher-ticket purchases such as smartphones and other consumer electronics. Why wait in line or for days for the latest iPhone if an army of scooter riders is ready to drop it off at your doorstep almost instantly? And, specific to Amazon, how compelling will Prime delivery be if there are superior alternatives?
The Seattle-based online retailer was once driven out of China by regulations promoting domestic names, “which had deep and patient capital, and strong capabilities,” said Devangshu Dutta, head of retail consultancy firm Third Eyesight. “Because of this, it becomes that much more important for Amazon to succeed in India, as it’s now the world’s largest market by users. The consumption numbers will also grow with time.”
It’s no overstatement to say that quick commerce could redefine online shopping for Indians, setting a precedent unique to the country. We’ve already seen that happen with UPI, the state-backed peer-to-peer digital payments system that’s outshined credit cards. The company that best adapts to and serves the demands of India’s growing online consumer base will command a share of a rapidly growing e-commerce arena that’s today worth $60 billion in gross merchandise value, according to Bain & Co.
Amazon’s already shifting gears in a highly visible way. Last month, it launched “Now,” a 10-minute delivery service, in some parts of the southern tech hub of Bangalore. That marks its experimental foray into quick commerce. The company is also taking baby steps to plug the money bleed, now charging all
online shoppers 5 rupees ($0.06) in marketplace fees. That’s negligible per transaction, but need I remind you that India is the world’s most populous country and hundreds of millions shop on Amazon?
Even while operating from a position of considerable strength, Amazon sees the rise of its more quick-witted rivals and the shift in consumer behavior, and it’s taking action. To avert those young companies building a comparable retail empire to its own, Amazon will have to show it still has the agility to outrace all comers.
–With assistance from Brunella Tipismana Urbano.
To view this story in Bloomberg click here:
https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SYPVYEDWLU68
Devangshu Dutta
June 30, 2025
In every strategy meeting today, one metric is invariably mentioned: Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC). Whether you’re a well-funded corporate retailer, or raising your first angel round, or a well-established digital duopolist brand scaling Series C, CAC is one of the key performance metrics. “Real” spend that is neatly broken down by channel, optimised by funnel tweaks, scrutinised to the last rupee or dollar.
But there’s a metric we almost never hear about that could be costing brands far more in the long run.
Let’s call it Customer Forfeiture Cost (CFC), the residual lifetime value that is lost when a customer walks away from your business not because of price, competition, or even shifting needs, but because of a “burn”: a delivery missed or messed up, a refund that took weeks, an arrogant customer service call, or a product that failed spectacularly against the promise. In other words, when your brand hurts someone enough to make them walk away. Probably for ever.
It’s a paradox: brands are pumping thousands of crores into acquiring users, but they’re bleeding value at the other end. Yet, while CAC is a line item in every financial statement, CFC is invisible in management dashboards. CEOs don’t announce, “We’ve cut our forfeiture cost by 20% this quarter.”
Yet. every CXO knows it exists. The NPS scores, the social media complaints, the “never again” comments in reviews, the sinking feeling when repeat purchase rates fall.
Why CFC Matters More Than Ever
In every business, during the early stages each sale is a victory. Whether it was the retail chains that grew in the 1990s and early-2000s or the digital upstarts that came up through 2010s and 2020s, scale has been the mantra, and investors have poured money into scaling through the growing consumption of India 1 and India 2 customers.
Today customer acquisition isn’t cheap. The same person who clicked impulsively in 2020 now thinks twice before confirming payment. In this landscape, retention isn’t optional, it’s existential.
Every lost customer isn’t just a refund processed, or a cart abandoned. It’s the long tail of future repeat purchases that will never happen, negative word of mouth and brand distrust in the customer’s circle of influence, and increased future CAC due to declining organic reach.
Way back in 1967, management consultant Peter Drucker wrote in his book “The Effective Executive”: “What gets measured, gets managed”.
Today your CAC may be Rs. 500-1,000. If the average customer life time value (LTV) is Rs. 10,000, and a single burn causes churn after just one order worth Rs. 2,000, your CFC is Rs. 8,000, and that doesn’t even include reputational spillover.
Why We Don’t Measure It
Yes, CFC is hard to quantify. It’s not as easily attributable as ad spends. There’s usually no neat model telling you why someone never returned, because tech stacks aren’t typically designed to track emotional exits. And let’s face it, introspection about broken relationships is uncomfortable, even for management teams.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not real. If a customer leaves because your delivery executive messed up, or because your app crashed during checkout twice in a row, that’s on you, not the market. And in a business climate where sustainable growth is the mantra, LTV is king.
Ignoring CFC is like watching your roof leak and blaming the rain.
Toward a New Discipline
Brands and retailers must start measuring CFC, the value lost when customers disengage due to friction, mistrust, or neglect, and then start working on reducing it. This can be done by:
The Competitive Edge We’re Not Using
In a crowded space where everyone’s vying for eyeballs, trust is the true moat. Customers don’t expect perfection – they do expect accountability, authenticity, and recovery when things go wrong.
Brands that understand and act on Customer Forfeiture Costs will quietly start building a powerful edge: deeper brand loyalty, lower CAC over time thanks to referrals and repeats and greater lifetime value per user.
In other words, real, compounding value.
As the Indian brand ecosystem matures, Customer Forfeiture Cost needs to be as visible and valued as CAC. Acquisition is the invitation; experience is the relationship. Relationships, once broken, are expensive to rebuild; if they can be rebuilt at all.
In the end, growth isn’t just about who comes in. It’s about who stays, and why.
(Written by Devangshu Dutta, Founder of Third Eyesight, this was published in Financial Express on 2 July 2025)
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May 23, 2025
By Kunal Purohit and Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World
Mumbai, India, 23 May 2025
Online retail continues to elude India’s richest man.
The Shein India app, launched by Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Retail in partnership with the Chinese fast-fashion giant, has struggled to gain traction in a market where Amazon and Walmart have been fighting neck-to-neck for nearly a decade. Downloads for Shein India nosedived from 50,000 a day shortly after its launch in early February to 3,311 in early April, according to AppMagic, a U.S.-based app performance tracker.
In April, when U.S. tariffs hit China, the app saw renewed interest as it was in the news, but experts are unclear on whether this growth is sustainable.
“Unlike earlier times, now … [the] market is saturated with multiple options and offers, and user interest can quickly dwindle,” Yugal Joshi, partner at global research firm Everest Group, told Rest of World.
Kushal Bhatnagar of Indian consulting firm Redseer, however, sees the late-April spike as a healthy sign, given that Reliance has yet to run paid marketing campaigns for Shein.
Reliance Retail declined to respond to Rest of World’s queries about its partnership with Shein.
Reliance launched Shein for India five years after the original Shein app was banned in the country over border tensions with China. But the Shein that has returned is entirely separate from Shein’s global platform: Rather than selling made-in-China clothes and accessories directly to consumers, Shein now operates as a technology partner, while Reliance Retail handles the heavy lifting — from sourcing and manufacturing to distribution. All consumer data is managed by the Indian company.
The partnership is part of Ambani’s broader effort to overhaul his retail business, whose valuation fell to $50 billion in 2025 from $125 billion in 2022. Although the company has made a push into digital platforms like JioMart, Ajio, and most recently Shein India, the bulk of its retail revenue still comes from its 18,000 physical stores.
Lagging behind Amazon and Walmart-backed Flipkart, which together control nearly 60% of India’s e-commerce market, Reliance has spent years trying to break into the sector. Between 2020 and 2025, Ambani’s group acquired majority stakes in companies spanning digital services, online pharmaceuticals, and quick commerce. But the investments have yet to position Reliance as a serious challenger to Amazon and Flipkart.
Analysts say the Indian behemoth hopes to leverage Shein’s artificial intelligence-powered trendspotting and automated inventory systems to pursue an ambitious goal: capturing a major share of India’s e-commerce market, projected to hit $345 billion by 2030.
According to Kaustav Sengupta, director of insights at VisionNxt, an Indian government-funded initiative that uses AI to forecast fashion trends, such a model is likely to make good use of Reliance’s humongous customer data sets: more than 476 million subscribers for its Jio telecom brand, 300 million users for e-commerce platform JioMart, and 452 million subscribers for its news and entertainment portfolio, consisting of 63 channels, a streaming service, and digital news outlets.
“With these data points, Reliance wants to now sell fashion products, so all it needs is a system where it can feed all these data points,” Sengupta told Rest of World. He said the model would be able to predict best-selling products and suggest the right prices for them.
The original Shein app uses AI-driven models for intelligent warehousing and to spot customer trends before manufacturing a new product. It scales the manufacturing up or tweaks the designs based on the feedback. At any given time, the Shein website has a catalogue of more than 600,000 items. Its Indian iteration does not match up, according to reviews on the Google Play store. Several customer reviews for Reliance’s Shein app are critical of higher prices and reduced options. The app’s rating hovered at 2 out of 5 until February; in May, it climbed to 4.4, but reviews were still a mixed bag.
Reviews of the Indian app highlight the disparity with Shein’s global version, criticizing higher prices and a reduced selection of categories and styles.
As of April 25, Reliance Retail said only 12,000 products were live on Shein India, a stark contrast to the 600,000 items available on Shein’s global platforms. While Shein is reportedly set to debut on the London Stock Exchange this year, Ambani’s years-old promise to take Reliance Retail public remains unfulfilled.
Reliance Retail, which accounts for around 30% of the conglomerate’s overall business, is facing a slowdown in annual growth. Its sales rose just 7.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2025, down from 17.8% the previous year. Meanwhile, shares of rival Tata Group’s retail and fashion arm, Trent, have soared by 133%.
“Reliance would have looked at reviving that momentum and riding on it, while for Shein, adding India back on its portfolio of markets could be a plus point before its proposed public listing,” Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a brand management consultancy that has worked with various global e-commerce brands including Ikea, told Rest of World.
A Reliance Retail official privy to information about its fast fashion expansion plans told Rest of World the partnership with Shein also hinges on global manufacturing ambitions as the Chinese company is trying to “source its products from other countries like India” to meet the “additional demand that is coming from newer markets.” Reliance Retail has tapped a network of small and midsize Indian manufacturers to locally source products, and its subsidiary Nextgen Fast Fashion Limited is leading the charge. “We need to first scale up our domestic manufacturing, before our partnership starts manufacturing for global markets. Let us see how that goes, first,” the official said, requesting anonymity as he is not authorized to share this information publicly.
India’s Gen Z population is at 377 million and counting, and their spending power is set to surpass $2 trillion by 2035, according to a 2024 report by Boston Consulting Group. Every fast-fashion retailer wants to capture this market, but it “is very new even for Reliance,” Rimjim Deka, founder of Indian fast-fashion platform Littlebox, told Rest of World.
Deka said smaller brands like hers “just see [a trend] and implement it,” which could take a large conglomerate months to do, by which time the trend may have lost relevance.
Reliance’s previous attempts to attract young shoppers with clothing brands like Foundry and Yousta failed to find much success. Anandita Bhuyan, who works in trend forecasting and product creation for fast-fashion clients like H&M and Myntra, told Rest of World the company has struggled to effectively leverage consumer data and target India’s youth.
According to the Reliance Retail official, the company is confident that if “there are 10 existing brands, the 11th brand will also get picked up as long as there is value and there is fashion.”
“Shein already has a recall among the youth. It gives us yet another brand in our portfolio through which we can cater to the youth,” the official said.
Shein was built in China on the back of more than 5,400 micro manufacturers — a scattered and loosely organized network of small and midsize factories.
In January this year, on a visit to China, Deka met with manufacturers working for Shein and Temu. On the outskirts of Guangzhou, Deka saw factories set up in areas that appeared residential, with “women sitting inside houses” making clothes.
“The tech is built in a way that somebody sitting there is able to see that, okay, next 15 days or next one month, how much I should be making … that is the kind of integration they have done,” Deka said.
Deka told Rest of World this model is easier to replicate at a smaller scale. “Me, coming from [the] supply chain industry, I understand that it is much easier for a brand like us because we are at a very smaller scale. We can still go to those people, we can still build it in a very unorganized way and then pull it off,” she said. Her company’s annual net revenue is 750 million Indian rupees ($8.6 million).
“[But] somebody like Reliance, they just cannot go haphazard here. … It has to be always organized,” Deka said.
Shein moved its headquarters to Singapore sometime between late 2021 and early 2022, a strategic departure to distance itself from its Chinese origins and facilitate hassle-free international expansion amid the U.S.-China trade war.
India is part of Shein’s wider strategy to diversify its supply chain — one that also includes a newly leased warehouse near Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, and efforts to establish alternative manufacturing hubs in Brazil and Turkey.
But in India, Reliance needs Shein as much as Shein needs Reliance for its global pivot. According to Bloomberg, Reliance Retail is focusing on creating leaner operations to weather a wider consumption slump in the Indian economy.
“It remains to be seen whether the Reliance-Shein combine can deliver on the brand’s promise with a wide range of products, fast and on-trend,” Dutta said. “In the years that Shein has been absent, the Indian market has evolved further, competition has intensified, and past goodwill is not enough to provide sales momentum.”
Kunal Purohit is a freelance journalist based in Mumbai, India.
Ananya Bhattacharya is a reporter for Rest of World covering South Asia’s tech scene. She is based in Mumbai, India.
(Published in Rest of World)
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March 7, 2025
Shailja Tiwari, Financial Express
March 7, 2025
This is what happens when you hit the gym after a long pause. On your first rebound day, the same weights seem heavier, the same set of squats tires you quicker. You might feel frustrated – nothing seems the way you left it.
The same scenario faces brands looking to make a comeback. Those “muscles” – read brand loyalty -have lost strength due to long absence. The brand’s “stamina”- customer loyalty – have declined with neglect. All of which essentially means you need a relook at the entire “regimen” – the product, price, place and promotion – that seemed to work the last time around.
Men’s fashion brand Reid & Taylor is facing the same dilemma.
Launched in India in 1998, the brand vanished from the market in 2018 after S Kumars – which held the rights to manufacture and market the Scottish brand in India went bankrupt. Reid & Taylor is making a gradual comeback now, under the aegis of its new owner Finquest Group, complete with a campaign featuring new brand ambassador Vicky Kaushal and tagline, “Man on a Mission”.
Finquest Group has invested over ₹750 crore in revitalising the brand. Reid & Taylor is available in more than 1,200 multi-brand and exclusive brand outlets across the country, as per a company announcement.
In January, Reid & Taylor also announced its partnership with the Unicommerce to knit together the brand’s website, warehouses, physical stores, and other online platforms in one integrated network. The tech integration followed the launch of Reid & Taylor’s brand website and its growing presence across various online marketplaces, a clear signal the company is gearing up to address the needs of today’s customer and give its competitors a run for their money.
Kapil Makhija, CEO and MD, Unicommerce, explains how this will enable Reid & Taylor to modernise its operations: “In addition to a consistent customer experience, this integration enables efficient inventory management through a centralised platform that allows ship-from-store service, where the brand can switch orders between warehouses and stores, offering a broader assortment for sale and faster order fulfilment. It also helps Reid and Taylor connect with the more online savvy audience.”
The Indian menswear market, encompassing formal, casual and traditional apparel, had crossed ₹2 trillion in 2023 and is expected to reach ₹4.3 trillion by 2027, as per a Statista report. Experts say that the menswear category has grown exponentially since Reid & Taylor’s first outing. It has a host of local and international brands such as Raymond, Mufti, Allen Solly, Louis Phillipe and Manyavar offering stiff competition.
In other words, Reid & Taylor has its task cut out.
Makeover strategy
The greatest challenge for the relaunched brand is to establish relevance and share-of-mind with a new set of consumers, observes Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight. “In its initial avatar in India, it rode on the brand’s past goodwill, but since its fall a few years ago, the market has changed significantly. Ready-to-wear apparel, growth of modern retail, online commerce and a set of consumers who have no past history or association with the brand are all significant factors at play, remarks Dutta.
At its best in the early-2000s, the brand was positioned mostly within the wedding segment, a category that is also rapidly changing. The styles that dominate wedding apparel are changing among younger cohorts, points out Ajimon Francis, MD India for Brand Finance. Formal three-piece suits and safari suits are no longer style statements.
Consumers are opting either for designer wear like a Tarun Tahiliani or for mid-segment offerings where brands like Raymond operate. “Formal suits are becoming an ‘uncle’ or ‘dadaji’ segment, and the wedding lines showcased by most brands are geared towards traditional wear. Formalwear for weddings now includes sherwanis and kurtas, where brands like Manyavar and FabIndia rule,” he points out.
Reflecting on the brand’s exit earlier from the Indian market, Francis says that its owners’ (S Kumars) inability to adapt the brand to changing consumer behaviour led to its downfall. The Finquest Group will need to clearly redefine its new positioning since Reid & Taylor now offers a mix of styles across casual and formal menswear.
Legacy brings credibility but it can also be baggage, remarks Rutu Mody Kamdar, founder of Jigsaw Brand Consultants. The challenge for Reid & Taylor lies in shaking off the heritage brand’ tag and making itself relevant to younger buyers who value modern style over nostalgia. “It needs to own the ‘quiet luxury’ space, timeless tailoring with a contemporary edge. That includes modern cuts, cultural collaborations, omnichannel presence, and aspirational storytelling,” suggests Kamdar.
E-commerce strategy will be key too. The brand will need to blend strong visuals with smart pricing and seamless strategy. Kamdar adds that Reid & Taylor needs to look at e-commerce as not just a sales channel but also a brand building platform.
(Published in Financial Express – Brandwagon)
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February 23, 2025
Chitra Narayanan, BusinessLine
New Delhi, 23 February 2025
India’s formidable array of craft traditions got full play at the just concluded Bharat Tex 2025, the mega textile trade show in New Delhi that showcased the best of Indian weaves to the world. But if there was one theme that dominated this year’s textile extravaganza, aimed at generating more exports, it was the focus on zero-waste fashions and upcycling. Everywhere the eye could see were standees and gigantic posters pushing the message of conscious consumption and sustainability — be it regenerative cotton, innovative models of textile waste collection, or eco-friendly fibres.
Taking centre stage at one of the halls at Bharat Mandapam, the venue, was a section that showcased age-old traditional arts like rafugari (creative darning or artistic mending), patchwork quilts and toys, and chindi durries (the art of weaving rugs and carpets with waste).
Juxtaposed against these ethnic ways of upcycling waste were the modern works of startups that rose to the textile ministry’s grand innovation challenge to work with discarded materials. From microbial dyes that are non-polluting to flowing fashionable lehengas created out of textile waste, the startups showed that a lot can be done in this area. The ministry had challenges in three more segments — jute, silk and wool.
Some takeaways from a walk-through of the textile trade show:
Closing the loop
The fashion and textile industry generates enormous waste. How to cut down on this was a subject of much deliberation and showcases. There were a lot of good ideas on display, showing that a fair amount of work has been done with fibres (bamboo, banana, flax), as well as creativity and ingenuity in weaves and finished garments.
As Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive of the consultancy Third Eyesight, points out, due credit must be given for the good work going into generating solutions that will reduce waste, be it textiles that are reprocessed and reused as yarn, or refashioned garments or reloved apparel. But, as he adds, on the other hand we have brands that are constantly looking to grow their business and there is a race to the bottom in terms of price. The relaunch of fast fashion retailer Shein in India is sending conflicting signals. “The basic engine is pumping out more and more products, and that has to be tackled,” he says, pointing to the competing forces at work.
The source of hope, he says, is the fact that the young are a bit more conservative about how they consume and what they consume.
Sandip Ghose, CEO of MP Birla Group, which has one of the oldest jute companies in India, was among the visitors at Bharat Tex. “As an industry insider, what I found good at Bharat Tex was that quite a bit of research seems to be on, both for finished fabric and for weaving. There was a lot of work on making jute look aesthetic. There were some vanity projects like tea leaves packed in jute bags. But the challenge is in two areas — commercialisation, and scaling up of these ideas,” he says.
He rues that the jute sector has not taken advantage of the production-linked incentive scheme at a time when the world is looking for eco-friendly and biodegradable textiles. “A tripartite partnership between the Centre (Niti Aayog and textile ministry), State government, and industry would address the issue of industry’s dependence on subsidies, labour issues and exports,” he says, adding that if India is looking at textiles as a major export area, jute is an option that has been missed.
Spinning into luxury
A clear trend evident from a tour of some of the apparel and home textile pavilions is the move towards premiumisation, similar to what is visible in other sectors, noticeably FMCG.
Talking to the manufacturers, especially those focused on the domestic market, the story one heard was that consumption had slowed in the mass segment, but was reassuringly strong in the premium segment.
Several players were also moving into the luxury and uber luxury segments. Both myTrident and Welspun had striking luxury collections.
Another trend visible in the home textiles section was the use of celebrity designers — myTrident’s eye-catching collection by resort-wear designers Shivan-Narresh; and Welspun’s beautiful sets from Kate Shand and Payal Singhal.
“When the economy suffers, it is the poor and middle class who cut down. There is no pressure to reduce consumption at the upper levels, and companies will try to tap into demand that is recession-proof,” says Dutta, explaining the push towards luxury by textile manufacturers.
New trade routes?
Export houses seemed reasonably happy with the buyer interest. Some mentioned that it was interesting to see buyers from Russia at the fair. However, for those supplying to US entities and Western Europe, the buyer interest from Russia may not translate into deals, given the risk of sanctions they could face.
To sum up, it was a fairly good showcase of India’s textile prowess to the world, but whether it will ring in more export orders is debatable as many of the problems and challenges the sector faces were swept under the carpet.
(Published in BusinessLine)
