The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):

1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:

• Inflationary pressures are hitting both sides of the market. While industries are facing rising input costs, the decision of how much cost to pass on to the consumer (through price increases or altering packaging sizes) rests with individual companies.
• Any direct price increase immediately can dampen consumer demand. As a result, companies have been hesitant to pass the entire burden of inflation to consumers right away. However, if geopolitical conflicts persist long term, they will have no choice but to raise prices.

2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):

• While public discussions often revolve around large, stock-market-listed corporations, the majority of the Indian economy is driven by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and small businesses.
• These smaller entities face immense pressure from rising input costs coupled with falling demand, which ultimately translates to direct financial stress on households.

3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:

• Due to these economic pressures, households will have to tighten their budgets over the next two quarters.
• Individuals should brace for rising costs of goods and services while anticipating that household incomes may not increase at the same pace to balance it out.

4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:

• The impact of crude oil is often misunderstood as only a transportation/logistics problem. While rising diesel prices inevitably raise truck freight rates that get passed onto products, oil’s impact is much broader.
• Crude oil is a core raw material. It directly affects the cost of plastics used in product packaging and is also formed into other base ingredients for many products. Therefore, rising oil prices inflate the overall production costs of almost every retail product, even if their logistical share is small.

5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:

• Lower-income groups, including daily wage earners and unskilled workers have fixed incomes and no financial cushions, forcing an immediate disruption in their daily essential spending. For the Middle-income groups, fixed liabilities like rent and EMIs will not decrease. To balance their household budgets, middle-class consumers will first cut back on discretionary spending (spending by choice), such as reducing outdoor dining, entertainment, and online food deliveries.
• If inflation lasts longer, consumers will resort to “down-trading”, either substituting premium products with cheaper alternative brands or buying smaller packet sizes.
• Companies are already shifting to “shrinkflation” tactics to avoid breaking critical price points. Instead of increasing the retail price, they are reducing the product volume (e.g., shrinking a packet from 100 grams to 80 grams).

The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]

Anushka Jha & Kausar Madhyia, Afaqs
12 May 2026

On May 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, made some appeals to the citizens of India. In addition to asking Indians to re-adopt Covid-like practices of working from home and refraining from travel abroad, the prime minister also appealed to the citizenry to stop buying gold for weddings for a year.

The appeals come in response to the global energy crisis and economic instability triggered by the US-Iran war and the consequent West Asia conflict, which makes import-dependent commodities like gold especially vulnerable.

The market reaction was almost immediate. Following the Prime Minister’s appeal, jewellery stocks saw sharp declines on the BSE. According to PTI, Senco Gold fell nearly 11%, Kalyan Jewellers dropped close to 10%, and Titan Company declined around 8%, while Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri slipped over 6%.
National interest and gold monetisation

Industry leaders have responded by balancing the Prime Minister’s vision with structural solutions.

“India’s economic strength must always come before individual preferences. Hon’ble Prime Minister’s appeal regarding responsible gold consumption reflects the larger national concern of rising imports and pressure on foreign exchange reserves,” says Rajesh Rokde, chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC).

He suggests that a revitalised Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) could “mobilise idle household gold” and “convert dormant gold into productive national capital”.

“Nation First. Responsible Gold Ecosystem Next,” he adds.

Avinash Gupta, the vice chairman of GJC, emphasises the emotional and cultural connection of gold to Indian households.

“But today, the nation also faces the challenge of balancing gold demand with economic stability.” He believes the GMS can channel gold into the formal economy, “reducing imports, easing CAD pressure and strengthening India’s financial ecosystem.”

India’s cultural fabric and the market reality

According to a report by MoneyControl, India imports 90% of its gold needs, making the country as one of the largest gold importers globally.

Gold is an integral part of India’s cultural fabric. It is not only a fitting gift for various auspicious occasions but also constitutes one of the most expensive elements of the ‘great Indian weddings’. Additionally, there are specific religious days dedicated solely to the purchase of gold, such as Akshaya Tritiya and Dhanteras.

However, external pressures are already weighing on the market.

Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a retail management consulting firm, observes: “Jewellery retailers are already suffering from higher raw material costs, and rising gold and silver prices have driven several customers to postpone or reduce their purchases, including on significant dates such as Akshaya Tritiya.”

He notes that while wedding demand may remain strong, discretionary purchases will face a setback. “Companies will need to lean into lighter, more contemporary designs and lower caratage to sustain year-round demand.”

The potential impact of the appeal

Despite rising gold prices, approximately 700 to 800 tonnes of gold are consumed every year by Indian households, weddings, festivals, investment purchases, and rural savings, as per the same Money Control report.

Given the popularity of PM Modi, industry veterans expect a tangible shift in consumer behaviour.

“There will certainly be an impact,” says Arun Iyer, founder and creative partner at Spring Marketing Capital and former chief creative officer at Lowe Lintas, who played a significant role in the creation of Tanishq and several of its iconic advertisements.

“Given that the Prime Minister obviously has a very, very deep influence on our society, I think there will be an impact. People will think twice before buying gold.”

He further notes that while critical purchases will continue, “this quarter is expected to pose some challenges for the jewellery brands”.

Adaptation and brand strategy

According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India’s gems and jewellery market stood at Rs 7,31,255 crore in January 2025 and is projected to increase to Rs 11,18,390 crore by 2030.

To sustain this growth, players like Suvankar Sen, CEO and MD of Senco Gold Ltd, are focusing on recycling.

“Today, almost 50% of our overall business is driven through recycled gold. This not only helps consumers optimise the value of their existing gold holdings but also contributes towards reducing dependence on fresh gold imports,” he says.

From a brand perspective, Saurabh Parmar, fractional CMO, believes the strategy must shift.

“In a scenario when the head of state says something like this, the brand faces a credibility problem, not a sales problem. The play is to shift from category promotion to category trust, lean on heritage, on long-term value, and on gold’s role in Indian culture.” He advises brands not to appear opportunistic but to signal, ‘We have always been there.'”

Given the popularity of Prime Minister Modi in India, his influence is likely to affect the performance of leading jewellery brands in the next quarter. This may include major players such as Tanishq, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, and Kalyan Jewellers, among others.

(Published in Afaqs)

Pooja Yadav, Exchange4Media

3 December 2025

Over the last few months, India’s e‑commerce and quick‑commerce ecosystem has undergone a wave of structural regulatory and tax reforms. Be it the Goods and Services Tax Council (GST Council) formally bringing “local delivery services” under the tax net with an 18% levy, or the newly implemented labour and social-security reforms expanding obligations for gig workers on aggregator platforms like Swiggy and Zomato, the cost and compliance landscape for delivery and fulfilment is shifting significantly.

The latest GST clarification, delivery fees, packaging charges, and logistics surcharges are now creating a ripple effect across pricing, platform margins, and seller compliance requirements.

The past few months have already shown concrete signals that platforms are revising their incentives, delivery promises, and fee structures. Following the GST clarification, major food‑delivery players have raised their platform fees, for instance, Zomato reportedly increased its per‑order fee from ₹10 to ₹12 (pre‑GST), while Swiggy also raised fees in select markets. Some quick‑commerce arms are also reworking free‑delivery thresholds or fee waiver conditions. Swiggy Instamart also recently updated its free‑delivery threshold to orders above ₹299, with handling and surge fees applying below that level, per reports.

Meanwhile, some platforms seem to be signalling a de‑emphasis on “ultra‑fast for every order” as universally viable; free or fast delivery now appears increasingly tied to higher order values or subscription/membership perks.

It looks like these pressures are forcing platforms to reconsider long-standing quick-commerce levers such as ultra-fast delivery, first-order free offers, zero delivery fees, and flash discounts — which have historically driven customer acquisition and retention.

While Zomato did not comment directly, it referred to the Code on Social Security, 2020 (CoSS), noting that the platform is prepared for gig-worker obligations and does not expect the rules to negatively impact long-term business sustainability.

According to Kapil Sharma of Amazon Ads, “The e‑commerce landscape will continue to evolve, but some fundamentals remain constant such as delivering value to consumers and providing advertisers with meaningful ways to engage. Our full-funnel ad solutions allow brands to focus on objectives such as new product launches, brand building, or promoting larger pack sizes, ensuring campaigns remain relevant and effective even as the ecosystem adapts to changing costs and regulations.”

e4m reached out to Swiggy, Meesho, Zepto and BigBasket for comments, but did not receive responses until the time of publishing.

Several experts told e4m that the economic model of quick commerce, built on heavily subsidised delivery and small-ticket frequent orders, is under pressure. Platforms will need to find sustainable levers to retain customers without eroding margins. The industry has started to see a strategic recalibration where speed is increasingly becoming a hygiene factor rather than a differentiator, free delivery is becoming conditional, and platforms are nudging consumers toward larger baskets, subscription models, curated bundles, and scheduled deliveries. Brands, in turn, are also shifting focus from mass discounting to premiumisation, value-led messaging, and precise cohort-based targeting.

Will Free Delivery Become Rare?

With the new social‑security obligations for gig workers under India’s labour reforms, and the added cost burden of delivery services now subject to GST, the economic logic underlying “free delivery” as a marketing lever is coming under stress. Chetan Asher, Founder and CEO of Tonic Worldwide, echoes this view, noting that quick-commerce platforms previously operated on thin contribution margins and heavily subsidised small-ticket, frequent orders. With rising delivery costs and mandatory social-security contributions, universal free delivery is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

Industry analysts point out that the new social-security mandates and GST on delivery fees have lifted per-order costs noticeably. Most quick-commerce platforms already operate at low single-digit contribution levels, making blanket “free delivery” hard to justify. It may continue, but only as a conditional incentive tied to higher basket values, subscription memberships, or flexible delivery slots, rather than as a universal subsidy.

Shradha Agarwal, Co- Founder & Global CEO, Grapes Worldwide, added from an advertising standpoint, “It’s already happened, brands like Zomato, Swiggy, Amazon and Flipkart, who know we are going to buy from them, have shifted from ‘buy now’ tactics to ‘stay with me’ strategies. Those days are gone when platforms were giving blanket discounts, now brands are the ones tightening their offers.” Citing an example she mentioned how offline pricing is ₹235, but online it is sold at ₹185, with online adding to top-line rather than bottom-line.

On promo hooks like ‘₹0 delivery’, ‘first-order free’ or ’10-minute delivery’, Agarwal said, “As labour codes, compliance costs, and social-security contributions kick in, platforms will have less room to burn cash on promos that don’t create sustainable value. Consumers care more about convenience than freebies.”

On ad spend shifts, she noted, “Offer-driven campaigns will weaken, while value-driven storytelling will rise. ATL and influencer campaigns will strengthen, and performance marketing will become more strategic. Retail media will become non-negotiable.”

From a brand perspective, Asher pointed out that quick-commerce spends are increasingly evaluated against contribution margin rather than sheer GMV growth. Discounts and zero-fee offers are losing bite as customer acquisition costs rise. First-party data, replenishment journeys, and sharper cohort-based offers are gaining importance, ensuring that incentives remain ROI-focussed rather than mass-oriented. Similarly, speed claims such as “0 delivery” or “10-minute delivery” are becoming less differentiating in top cities, where most players already deliver within 15–20 minutes. Consumers now respond better to reliable ETAs, fair fee structures, and transparent pricing than aggressive speed promises.

Adding her viewpoint, Pooja Dhamdhere, Commerce Lead at Starcom India, said, “Incentives like free delivery or first-order offers are likely to evolve rather than disappear, and platforms will explore strategies such as tiered benefits, curated bundles, or differentiated pricing for specific cohorts.”

According to serial entrepreneur Alok Chawla and Founder at Kiko Live, added that while platforms may continue absorbing delivery costs in the short term, the long-term economics will require charging for ultra-fast or low-value orders. “Once platforms pass the actual delivery costs to consumers, we expect order frequency and small-cart behaviour to change, with many users shifting to larger baskets or neighbourhood retailers offering free delivery,” he noted.

Alternative Consumer-Incentive Models

Devangshu Dutta, founder and chief executive of Third Eyesight, who is an expert in the consumer and modern retail sector, stated, “I think platforms will pass a significant portion of the new 18% GST burden on delivery to end-consumers, either through higher delivery charges or repackaged platform fees. Some of this cost may also be clawed back from restaurant partners and quick-commerce brands via revised commissions, slotting fees or mandatory participation in marketing programmes, especially in categories where the platform has stronger bargaining power. Overall, I expect higher minimum-order thresholds and a tighter margin environment for restaurants and small D2C brands that rely heavily on third-party platforms.”

Analysts highlight strategies such as minimum-order thresholds, where free or lower-fee delivery applies only above a certain cart value, nudging consumers to order larger baskets rather than frequent small-ticket items. Subscription and membership-based models are also gaining prominence, offering benefits like waived or discounted delivery, priority fulfilment, and access to exclusive promotions in exchange for a fixed fee.

Scheduled or batch delivery windows are being used to optimise logistics, reduce cost pressure on ultra-fast last-mile fulfilment, and improve operational efficiency. Meanwhile, curated bundles and value packs, including weekly or monthly combos, allow consumers to plan purchases while enhancing per-unit economics for platforms. These levers also enable brands to maintain margin integrity without over-reliance on short-term discounting.

From a marketing perspective, this shift is prompting agencies and creative-first firms to move toward value-led messaging, premiumisation, and cohort-based targeting. Dhamdhere explained, “Platforms are optimising assortments by surfacing premium SKUs, nudging higher average order values, and using search optimisation to strengthen profitability. Brands are now focusing on aspirational consumers with curated bundles, subscriptions, and value-led propositions, rather than mass discounting. Performance campaigns will continue, but clarity of value and sustainable margin-led offers are becoming key for acquisition and retention.”

2026: Will regulatory pressure force a recalibration?

As 2026 approaches, the combined impact of GST on delivery services and mandatory social-security contributions for gig workers is forcing a fundamental rethink of quick-commerce economics. With blanket discounts, zero delivery fees and ultra-fast delivery no longer viable as mass levers, platforms are shifting toward basket-building, subscriptions, curated bundles and conditional incentives. The growth thesis is evolving from “habit formation at any cost” to protecting contribution margins through reliable ETAs, transparent pricing and premium assortments rather than aggressive subsidies.

Brands are recalibrating alongside this shift. Premiumisation, value-led propositions and sharper cohort-based targeting are taking precedence over broad discounting, and campaigns are increasingly evaluated on ROI, repeat behaviour and lifetime value rather than raw GMV. Tiered memberships, scheduled deliveries and subscription-led conveniences are emerging as key retention tools, while short-form video, influencer ecosystems and retail media help articulate value in a tighter cost environment.

Chawla said platforms will have to move beyond “₹0 delivery”, “first order free” and “10-minute delivery” as core propositions because the delivery cost burn far exceeds margins on small-ticket orders. Many consumers currently place multiple micro-orders a day simply because delivery is free, but once fees come into play, behaviour will likely shift toward clubbing orders or reverting to neighbourhood retailers, who themselves are rapidly digitising through partners like Kiko Live.

In the next phase, he adds, free instant delivery will only be sustainable for larger baskets, whereas scheduled delivery may become the default for free delivery, with paid instant delivery as an optional upgrade. Subscriptions may drive loyalty, but only up to a point, since the heaviest users would consume more deliveries than the subscription fee can realistically subsidise, making it difficult for platforms to make the model profitable.

This points to a clear playbook for 2026. “Free delivery” and mass discounting are expected to fade, giving way to conditional, tier-based formats that reward higher basket values, subscriptions or specific cohorts. Brand platform partnerships will also move toward profitability rather than promotional burn, with campaigns designed to protect margins instead of fuelling discount-led spikes.

Taken together, the signs suggest that 2026 will not mark the end of convenience, but the end of convenience that is subsidised blindly. The real test now is who absorbs this new cost of convenience, platforms, brands, or consumers. And as that battle plays out, another tension is already emerging: whether small and regional advertisers can survive the rising cost of visibility in India’s digital economy.

(published in Exchange4Media)

Alenjith K Johny & Ajay Rag, Economic Times
Jul 27, 2025

Startups in the 60-minute fashion delivery segment are betting on features such as ‘try and buy’ and artificial intelligence (AI)-powered virtual try-ons to tackle high return rates, a key pain point in the segment. These tools are helping increase conversion rates and reduce returns while offering greater flexibility to buyers, said industry executives.

Mumbai-based Knot, which recently raised funding from venture capital firm Kae Capital, said partner brands that typically see return rates of about 20% on their direct-to-consumer websites are witnessing sub-1% returns through offline stores, a trend it is now replicating through these digital features.

“Our partner brands, which have offline stores, would typically witness 20% returns on their direct to consumer websites. But for the same purchases on offline stores, the returns are less than 1%. That is the idea. With the ‘try and buy’ feature, users can make a very decisive purchase at their doorstep,” Archit Nanda, CEO of Knot, told ET.

Return rates among users of the company’s virtual try-on feature are similarly much lower than the platform’s overall user base, he said.

Other venture-backed quick fashion delivery startups such as Bengaluru-based Slikk, Mumbai-based Zilo and Gurugram-based Zulu Club are also testing similar features to increase conversions and reduce returns.

“Returns play as big a part as maybe forward delivery does. Because these are expensive products, giving the customer his or her money back also plays a very critical role,” said Akshay Gulati, cofounder and CEO of Slikk.

Instant returns

Slikk is piloting an ‘instant returns’ feature where, like its 60-minute delivery service, returns are also completed within an hour. Once a return request is made on the app, a delivery partner picks up the product and refunds the amount instantly. The startup claims its return rate is 40-50% lower than that of traditional marketplaces and that it doesn’t charge customers any extra fees for returns.

Some users said they were satisfied with the delivery speed and trial window but pointed out that the app does not provide any return status updates until the product reaches the warehouse.

“I received my order within 60 minutes and had enough time to try it out. However, after returning the product, I didn’t receive any notification in the application until the delivery agent reached the warehouse,” said Mohammed Shibili, a working professional based in Bengaluru, who tried Slikk’s feature.

Investor interest

Investors tracking the segment estimate that try-and-buy and virtual try-on features can reduce return rates by 15-20 percentage points, translating into substantial cost savings for both platforms and brands.

“Features like try and buy are a huge cost save, not just for the platform but also for the brand. The brand otherwise would lose that inventory till it comes back and can’t make the sale on it. But now, that’s all getting quickly turned around. So, for the brand, it’s a win-win situation as well as for the customer where the money is not getting stuck till it gets the returns refunded,” said Sunitha Viswanathan, partner at Kae Capital.

Old model, new infrastructure

Flipkart-owned fashion etailer Myntra had introduced try and buy back in 2016 to attract traditional shoppers to online retail. However, the feature didn’t scale up due to supply chain limitations, according to industry executives.

“Back when Myntra launched ‘try and buy’, there was no hyperlocal delivery infrastructure. Deliveries were through national courier services. That model isn’t feasible to try and buy unless you have your own hyperlocal delivery fleet,” the founder of a fashion delivery startup said on condition of anonymity.

The founder added that while Myntra operated from large warehouses located on the outskirts of cities, the new-age supply chains are built within cities, allowing faster deliveries and enabling features like try and buy.

By the end of last year, Myntra had launched M-Now, an ultra-fast delivery service currently live in Bengaluru, Mumbai and Delhi, with pilots in other cities. The company said daily orders through M-Now doubled in the last quarter.

“Although it’s still early, our observations so far suggest that the quick delivery model, with its reduced wait time, attracts high-intent customers, leading to naturally lower return rates,” said a spokesperson for Myntra.

The etailer did not confirm whether the try-and-buy feature is being tested under M-Now.

Viability concerns persist

Despite the benefits, the long-term viability of these features is open to question, experts said.

“There is a cost to also providing these services (like try and buy), and whether that becomes viable at all is a question mark at this point of time. I think that’s what the concern is, and it has not been that viable,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a management consulting firm focused on consumer goods and retail industries.

He added that when platforms offer the try-and-buy feature, delivery executives have to wait while customers try on products, which increases the cost per delivery and reduces the number of deliveries that can be completed. Despite that, some items may still be returned, further impacting operational efficiency.

However, startups are experimenting with these features mainly on higher-margin products to offset operational costs, Dutta said, as return rates across fashion categories can range from under 10% to as high as 40% for certain items.

(Published in Economic Times)

“The Indian consumer is a damn tough customer”, said a senior manager a large retailer in India.

But is it really so?

• Let’s understand that the Indian consumer is “value conscious” and not “cost conscious”: She’ll buy extra kgs of rice for a discount but not atta (the quality of properly stored rice enhances with time; atta deteriorates …… she knows it). The discount offered should definitely be higher than her “return on capital” involved in buying the inventory (however miniscule the capital involved may be).
• The Consumer is Smart: If we try to sell him a branded pressure cooker at 15% discount on printed price and he does not buy it, let’s understand that he has done his homework very well; he knows that 25% discount on printed price is available in every local “kitchen shop” that he goes to.
• Localization is King: Let’s draw some inferences from an old Indian adage “Kos Kos par paani badle chaar kos par baani” (which means, in India “the quality of water changes after every mile and the dialect changes every four miles”). In such a diverse country everyone can’t be served the same way, with the same products – localization holds the key. When you sell Dudhi in Mumbai and Ghiya in Delhi, you are selling the same bottle gourd but the nomenclature is important. Does inventory of srikhand in Delhi and paneer in southern India give any distinctive edge to your retail offer, or should you focus on something that is consumer more locally?

Are we trying to open a simple combination lock (the Indian consumer’s mind) with a complex cryptographic fingerprinting algorithm?

Retailers need to invest in understanding, gauging and benchmarking the local preferences.  They need to be able to react to those preferences in a highly local manner.  And they need to acknowledge that the consumer is an intelligent value-conscious buyer, not a cost-focussed idiot.

That is the magic 3-number combination to the riches of the Indian consuming market.