Devangshu Dutta
June 30, 2025
In every strategy meeting today, one metric is invariably mentioned: Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC). Whether you’re a well-funded corporate retailer, or raising your first angel round, or a well-established digital duopolist brand scaling Series C, CAC is one of the key performance metrics. “Real” spend that is neatly broken down by channel, optimised by funnel tweaks, scrutinised to the last rupee or dollar.
But there’s a metric we almost never hear about that could be costing brands far more in the long run.
Let’s call it Customer Forfeiture Cost (CFC), the residual lifetime value that is lost when a customer walks away from your business not because of price, competition, or even shifting needs, but because of a “burn”: a delivery missed or messed up, a refund that took weeks, an arrogant customer service call, or a product that failed spectacularly against the promise. In other words, when your brand hurts someone enough to make them walk away. Probably for ever.
It’s a paradox: brands are pumping thousands of crores into acquiring users, but they’re bleeding value at the other end. Yet, while CAC is a line item in every financial statement, CFC is invisible in management dashboards. CEOs don’t announce, “We’ve cut our forfeiture cost by 20% this quarter.”
Yet. every CXO knows it exists. The NPS scores, the social media complaints, the “never again” comments in reviews, the sinking feeling when repeat purchase rates fall.
Why CFC Matters More Than Ever
In every business, during the early stages each sale is a victory. Whether it was the retail chains that grew in the 1990s and early-2000s or the digital upstarts that came up through 2010s and 2020s, scale has been the mantra, and investors have poured money into scaling through the growing consumption of India 1 and India 2 customers.
Today customer acquisition isn’t cheap. The same person who clicked impulsively in 2020 now thinks twice before confirming payment. In this landscape, retention isn’t optional, it’s existential.
Every lost customer isn’t just a refund processed, or a cart abandoned. It’s the long tail of future repeat purchases that will never happen, negative word of mouth and brand distrust in the customer’s circle of influence, and increased future CAC due to declining organic reach.
Way back in 1967, management consultant Peter Drucker wrote in his book “The Effective Executive”: “What gets measured, gets managed”.
Today your CAC may be Rs. 500-1,000. If the average customer life time value (LTV) is Rs. 10,000, and a single burn causes churn after just one order worth Rs. 2,000, your CFC is Rs. 8,000, and that doesn’t even include reputational spillover.
Why We Don’t Measure It
Yes, CFC is hard to quantify. It’s not as easily attributable as ad spends. There’s usually no neat model telling you why someone never returned, because tech stacks aren’t typically designed to track emotional exits. And let’s face it, introspection about broken relationships is uncomfortable, even for management teams.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not real. If a customer leaves because your delivery executive messed up, or because your app crashed during checkout twice in a row, that’s on you, not the market. And in a business climate where sustainable growth is the mantra, LTV is king.
Ignoring CFC is like watching your roof leak and blaming the rain.
Toward a New Discipline
Brands and retailers must start measuring CFC, the value lost when customers disengage due to friction, mistrust, or neglect, and then start working on reducing it. This can be done by:
The Competitive Edge We’re Not Using
In a crowded space where everyone’s vying for eyeballs, trust is the true moat. Customers don’t expect perfection – they do expect accountability, authenticity, and recovery when things go wrong.
Brands that understand and act on Customer Forfeiture Costs will quietly start building a powerful edge: deeper brand loyalty, lower CAC over time thanks to referrals and repeats and greater lifetime value per user.
In other words, real, compounding value.
As the Indian brand ecosystem matures, Customer Forfeiture Cost needs to be as visible and valued as CAC. Acquisition is the invitation; experience is the relationship. Relationships, once broken, are expensive to rebuild; if they can be rebuilt at all.
In the end, growth isn’t just about who comes in. It’s about who stays, and why.
(Written by Devangshu Dutta, Founder of Third Eyesight, this was published in Financial Express on 2 July 2025)
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May 7, 2025
Shalinee Mishra, Exchange4Media
May 7, 2025
Bollywood’s biggest stars, Katrina Kaif and Deepika Padukone, have reputed beauty businesses to their names — Kay Beauty and 82°East, respectively.
Kay Beauty, launched in late 2019 in partnership with Nykaa, has crossed the ₹200 crore revenue mark in 2024. In contrast, 82°E, launched by Deepika in November 2022, has managed around ₹25 crore, according to industry estimates.
Both actors have massive social media pull, strong brand equity, and sizable fan followings. They are matched in popularity, but the same cannot be said about their respective brands. One clearly has an edge over the other. In this case, it is Kay Beauty.
What went wrong with 82°E?
A core difference between the two brands is pricing.
Kay Beauty’s average product is priced affordably at around ₹299, making it accessible to a large portion of Indian beauty consumers. It hits the sweet spot of mass affordability and aspirational branding.
Katrina seems to have built the line keeping in mind India’s price-sensitive but beauty-conscious audience, especially women who look for functional, everyday products without shelling out a fortune.
On the other hand, 82°E positions itself as a luxury skincare brand, with products starting at ₹2,500 and going up to nearly ₹4,000. While targeting the premium market is a valid strategy, it demands either a very clear value proposition or a unique, standout offering that sets it apart from both domestic and global competitors.
According to multiple marketing and retail experts, 82°E currently lacks such a defining “hero” product. In contrast, top-tier global brands like Estée Lauder (Advanced Night Repair) and L’Occitane (Immortelle Divine Cream) have built their entire portfolio identity around one or two iconic products.
Devangshu Dutta, CEO of retail consultancy Third Eyesight, cautions against overestimating the power of celebrity equity alone. “Celebrity involvement, even with an equity stake, doesn’t automatically ensure brand success,” he says. “What matters is how well the product and brand resonate with the end consumer. Many factors—category selection, pricing, accessibility, and retail strategy—determine scalability.”
He adds, “A high-priced D2C brand with limited-use products will always scale slower than a more affordably priced, high-rotation brand with widespread retail availability.”
Missing the emotional connect
Another crucial area where 82°E falters is brand recall without Deepika. Experts argue that if Deepika’s face were to be removed from the branding, very little would remain to emotionally anchor consumers.
While celebrity-founded brands enjoy the initial boost of recognition, long-term consumer connection demands storytelling, product efficacy, and relevance.
For a product priced between ₹2700–₹3900, the experience and results need to justify the cost. But user feedback suggests the perceived benefits don’t dramatically exceed what one might get from a ₹999 serum in the market.
Katrina’s Kay Beauty, in contrast, positioned itself as a homegrown solution for Indian skin types, with products that worked well for deeper skin tones and humidity-prone weather.
The brand tapped into inclusivity and practicality—two emotional hooks that resonate deeply with Indian consumers. Additionally, it responded to functional needs by launching waterproof and sweat-resistant products, which especially make sense during monsoons.
On Instagram, Katrina actively promotes her products, collaborates with influencers, and shares content that resonates with her target audience. In contrast, Deepika’s brand presence on social media lacks the same level of relatability and consistent engagement, suggesting a need for a more tailored and active digital strategy.
Link: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DI_wjSRoZTM/? utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIWHG1DSR5f/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Retail footprint and distribution strategy
Skincare, particularly in the premium category, remains an experiential purchase. Consumers often want to try and test products before committing, especially at a higher price point. 82°E launched as a D2C-only brand, relying heavily on its website and social media advertising for discovery and sales with no store opening.
The strategy meant substantial upfront investment in paid media and influencer partnerships to generate traction, but lacked the physical visibility or tactile experience needed to convert high-end skincare buyers.
In contrast, Kay Beauty quickly became visible across Nykaa’s extensive online and offline retail network, giving shoppers a chance to explore products across price tiers in-store and online. The Nykaa tie-up served not only as a strong distribution engine but also as a brand endorsement in itself, given the platform’s dominant position in Indian beauty retail.
As Kushal Sanghvi, a media and marketing strategist, puts it, “Kay Beauty got its pricing, packaging, promotion, and place—basically the key P’s of marketing—spot on. Deepika’s brand, though elegant, is caught in a niche premium wellness space with limited scale.”
Kay Beauty was developed with a clear understanding of what works in India: colour cosmetics tailored for Indian skin tones and seasonal weather. The brand focused on frequently-used products like lipsticks, kajal, and foundation sticks that had both a functional and emotional appeal, allowing it to drive repeat purchases.
In contrast, 82°E focused on skincare rooted in self-care and holistic wellness, a space that is already crowded with local and international competitors, and where product effectiveness needs to be proven over time. Moreover, Indian consumers still tend to see skincare as utilitarian, rather than indulgent, which makes higher pricing even more of a challenge.
Short-Term Results vs. Long-Term Vision
It’s important to contextualise these figures within brand age. Luxury brands, globally, have often taken decades to establish loyalty. From Estée Lauder to Chanel, brand equity is built slowly through repeated use, reliable results, and consistent positioning.
But time alone won’t change the equation unless the core approach is recalibrated. If Deepika’s brand intends to build a long-lasting business, it will need to think beyond elite appeal and D2C strategy. Offline presence, a wider retail network, and possibly a reimagining of its product portfolio to include lower price points or trial-sized options could open the door to a broader consumer base.
India’s beauty and wellness market is growing at over 15% year-on-year, and opportunities abound at both the premium and affordable ends of the spectrum. But clarity of positioning and accessibility remain critical to long-term success.
(Published in Exchange4Media)
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March 7, 2025
Shailja Tiwari, Financial Express
March 7, 2025
This is what happens when you hit the gym after a long pause. On your first rebound day, the same weights seem heavier, the same set of squats tires you quicker. You might feel frustrated – nothing seems the way you left it.
The same scenario faces brands looking to make a comeback. Those “muscles” – read brand loyalty -have lost strength due to long absence. The brand’s “stamina”- customer loyalty – have declined with neglect. All of which essentially means you need a relook at the entire “regimen” – the product, price, place and promotion – that seemed to work the last time around.
Men’s fashion brand Reid & Taylor is facing the same dilemma.
Launched in India in 1998, the brand vanished from the market in 2018 after S Kumars – which held the rights to manufacture and market the Scottish brand in India went bankrupt. Reid & Taylor is making a gradual comeback now, under the aegis of its new owner Finquest Group, complete with a campaign featuring new brand ambassador Vicky Kaushal and tagline, “Man on a Mission”.
Finquest Group has invested over ₹750 crore in revitalising the brand. Reid & Taylor is available in more than 1,200 multi-brand and exclusive brand outlets across the country, as per a company announcement.
In January, Reid & Taylor also announced its partnership with the Unicommerce to knit together the brand’s website, warehouses, physical stores, and other online platforms in one integrated network. The tech integration followed the launch of Reid & Taylor’s brand website and its growing presence across various online marketplaces, a clear signal the company is gearing up to address the needs of today’s customer and give its competitors a run for their money.
Kapil Makhija, CEO and MD, Unicommerce, explains how this will enable Reid & Taylor to modernise its operations: “In addition to a consistent customer experience, this integration enables efficient inventory management through a centralised platform that allows ship-from-store service, where the brand can switch orders between warehouses and stores, offering a broader assortment for sale and faster order fulfilment. It also helps Reid and Taylor connect with the more online savvy audience.”
The Indian menswear market, encompassing formal, casual and traditional apparel, had crossed ₹2 trillion in 2023 and is expected to reach ₹4.3 trillion by 2027, as per a Statista report. Experts say that the menswear category has grown exponentially since Reid & Taylor’s first outing. It has a host of local and international brands such as Raymond, Mufti, Allen Solly, Louis Phillipe and Manyavar offering stiff competition.
In other words, Reid & Taylor has its task cut out.
Makeover strategy
The greatest challenge for the relaunched brand is to establish relevance and share-of-mind with a new set of consumers, observes Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight. “In its initial avatar in India, it rode on the brand’s past goodwill, but since its fall a few years ago, the market has changed significantly. Ready-to-wear apparel, growth of modern retail, online commerce and a set of consumers who have no past history or association with the brand are all significant factors at play, remarks Dutta.
At its best in the early-2000s, the brand was positioned mostly within the wedding segment, a category that is also rapidly changing. The styles that dominate wedding apparel are changing among younger cohorts, points out Ajimon Francis, MD India for Brand Finance. Formal three-piece suits and safari suits are no longer style statements.
Consumers are opting either for designer wear like a Tarun Tahiliani or for mid-segment offerings where brands like Raymond operate. “Formal suits are becoming an ‘uncle’ or ‘dadaji’ segment, and the wedding lines showcased by most brands are geared towards traditional wear. Formalwear for weddings now includes sherwanis and kurtas, where brands like Manyavar and FabIndia rule,” he points out.
Reflecting on the brand’s exit earlier from the Indian market, Francis says that its owners’ (S Kumars) inability to adapt the brand to changing consumer behaviour led to its downfall. The Finquest Group will need to clearly redefine its new positioning since Reid & Taylor now offers a mix of styles across casual and formal menswear.
Legacy brings credibility but it can also be baggage, remarks Rutu Mody Kamdar, founder of Jigsaw Brand Consultants. The challenge for Reid & Taylor lies in shaking off the heritage brand’ tag and making itself relevant to younger buyers who value modern style over nostalgia. “It needs to own the ‘quiet luxury’ space, timeless tailoring with a contemporary edge. That includes modern cuts, cultural collaborations, omnichannel presence, and aspirational storytelling,” suggests Kamdar.
E-commerce strategy will be key too. The brand will need to blend strong visuals with smart pricing and seamless strategy. Kamdar adds that Reid & Taylor needs to look at e-commerce as not just a sales channel but also a brand building platform.
(Published in Financial Express – Brandwagon)
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September 12, 2024
By Richa Naidu and Dhwani Pandya, Reuters
London/Mumbai,12 September 2024
For years, the world’s biggest condom maker Reckitt Benckiser designed products and marketing to lure Indian men to its Durex brand. Now, it is pushing a growth strategy by betting on women and rural consumers.
India last year surpassed China to become the world’s most populous nation, but still fares poorly on the use of contraceptives. India’s government estimates only around 10% of men use condoms and for women, sterilization remains the popular form of contraception.
Social stigma surrounding sex – which some say stems from Victorian social norms established during British colonization – has for decades marginalized female pleasure in the Indian society.
But attitudes are changing and Reckitt is shifting marketing gears to take advantage of an upswing in condom use among Indian women – now a key target audience for Durex.
Around 9.5% of married Indian women cited using condoms during sex by 2021, almost double the use five years earlier, according to latest available government statistics. Among unmarried women, such use more than doubled to 27%.
Reckitt is reformulating products such as lubricants aimed at attracting women consumers, and has new marketing campaigns, Pankaj Duhan, Reckitt’s senior vice president of intimate wellness, told Reuters in an interview.
The Durex lubricants in India will use improved formulations to appeal to women and have been created after performing clinical studies to address concerns females face — 30% of Indian women experience some discomfort when having sex with their partner.
“We want to change this … That is why we are relaunching our lubes portfolio,” said Duhan. “The women tend to become a little bit more underserved consumer groups.”
The India condoms market is currently dominated by Mankind Pharma, which makes Manforce, followed by Reckitt and TTK Healthcare.
CHALLENGES
The British consumer goods firm faces some stiff challenges in its quest to carve out a lucrative slice of the female condom market and rural consumers, primarily with distribution and pricing – two areas industry watchers believe are key to success – but also in coaxing a still-largely conservative rural population to buy its products.
Moreover, competitors are making a pitch to women too, with Durex’s main rival and market leader Manforce tweaking its marketing — a recent ad stars a Bollywood actress talking about benefits of condoms and asking women to “go buy your own.”
“One challenge Reckitt may face is consistency of messaging,” said Devangshu Dutta, head of retail consultancy Third Eyesight, adding the company needs to figure out if it is targeting condoms for health, family planning, or pleasure as there could be different messaging for each type of shopper.
The growth opportunity is compelling – India’s condom market size is merely worth $210 million, compared to China’s $4.1 billion, but is forecast to grow at 7.4% compound annual rate between 2024 and 2030, according to Indian consulting firm 6Wresearch. The global market is worth $11.3 billion.
Growing the market will take some doing though, not least because of India’s vast size and millions of mom-and-pop stores require a widespread distributor network.
Currently, only about 10-15% of Durex’s sales in India come from rural areas, which is far more price sensitive than urban cities.
“Distribution is the big challenge simply because even though most consumer goods companies have made their way to all pincodes in the country, the question is maintaining availability at retail points,” said Dutta of Third Eyesight.
CHIPPING AWAY AT TABOOS
Sex education in the conservative country is also lagging, and there is a vast gulf between awareness and actual use of contraceptives.
Matt Godfrey, executive vice president for Asia Pacific at Monks ad agency, part of S4Capital, said marketing tweaks by the likes of Durex are a welcome change but condom use and sex education need to improve in India.
“There are significant societal and cultural aspects that need to be rapidly shifted to reverse the status quo,” he said.
In the eastern state of Odisha, for example, a small medical store of Sudam Padhan does not prominently display condoms as “people frown upon them”.
In India, it’s men who mostly buy condoms, but some like Pooja, a marketer in Mumbai, are trying to drive change. She made an “awkward” decision to buy condoms herself for the first time this year, saying “when I’m asking for a condom over the counter I am basically putting my health first”.
Still, in a telling sign of the somewhat taboo nature of the topic, the 31-year-old declined to share her last name as she is unmarried and feared societal admonition.
“An open conversation encouraging safe and responsible sex in India has been steadily progressing but needs to be continually supported” by brands including Durex, S4Capital’s Godfrey said.
Like many of its rivals, Reckitt has over the years largely focussed on Indian men, with many ads featuring women wearing skimpy clothes.
Rival Manforce Condoms features former pornstar Sunny Leone in videos, some labelled “EXCLUSIVE UNCENSORED”. Duhan said many of the condom ads “objectified women.”
But that’s changing. Durex earlier this year launched a risqué “Explorers Wanted” lubricants campaign in India which featured sensual shots of nude male body parts.
PRICING PAINS
Pricing is another big challenge, especially in stores in smaller towns and villages which are reluctant to stock condoms and lubes. Duhan said products have to be “extremely cheap” to sell in some rural areas, where many use free government-provided condoms.
Padhan, from the medical store in Odisha, doesn’t stock Durex “because they are costly and there’s no demand for them in rural areas,” and says most sales are of Ustad “Deluxe Condoms” made by a state-run firm.
Ustaad costs just 10 rupees (11 U.S. cents) for a pack of six. A pack of 10 Durex condoms starts retailing at around 250 rupees, with some priced above $6, and a similar pack of Manforce starts at $1.
But the smaller three-condom Durex pack starts retailing around 99 rupees, and Reckitt believes they will sell better in rural India.
“We are starting at the top (and) planning to get down to the rural areas,” Duhan said. “It’s a massive undertaking”.
(Reported and Published by Reuters)
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March 29, 2024
Mumbai, 29 March 2024
Sharleen Dsouza, Business Standard
With the IPL kicking off, speculations are rife that the former Indian cricket team captain M S Dhoni will hang up his boots after handing over the captaincy of Chennai Super Kings (CSK) to Ruturaj Gaikwad. However, brand experts believe this is not the end of the road for Dhoni as a celebrity, and he still has some mileage left even if he completely retires.
Dhoni is expected to continue being associated with CSK even after retirement, according to a media report. In an Instagram post, CSK said that Dhoni has handed over the captaincy to Gaikwad, who joined the team in 2019.
PTI first reported the story of Dhoni handing over the captaincy and quoted CSK Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Kasi Viswanathan as saying, “Whatever Dhoni does, it is in the best interest of the team. I got to know of the decision just before the captains’ meeting. You have to respect his decision; it is his call.”
Brand experts say that his brand value will carry through even after he leaves cricket. “He has done a lot of things, and his brand value will persist even after his retirement. There won’t be a drop in momentum immediately after he retires,” says brand expert Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight.
According to Kroll’s Celebrity Brand Valuation Report, in 2022, Dhoni’s brand value stood at $80.3 million and was the sixth-highest-ranked celebrity, while he stood at number 5 in 2021.
Brand experts expect a drop, which is natural, but it certainly won’t be a crash in his valuation as brands would still like to associate with him.
Dhoni is also one of those players who can continue to build brand equity even once he retires completely from the sport, according to experts.
Also, the 42-year-old is one of those sportsmen who announced his retirement in phases. He announced his retirement from international cricket on August 15, 2020, and had earlier retired from Test cricket on December 14, 2014. This move, according to brand experts, has also worked in his favour as it continued to help him build his brand equity, and he did not see a sharp drop overnight.
“I think he still has some mileage left,” said brand expert Santosh Desai. He explained that Dhoni’s connection with people is still strong. However, he did not rule out a drop in his valuation but said it wouldn’t be a huge drop.
N Chandramouli, CEO of brand insights firm TRA Research, also believes that the former Indian cricket team captain has been wise with his investments.
“He will continue to remain relevant, and brands will continue to want him. He won’t be a celebrity who goes from hero to zero overnight if he retires after the IPL,” Chandramouli said.
He also explained that Dhoni is going out at a time when he is still performing and added that the question people will ask him at this stage is why now and not why not.
“Dhoni is one of those guys who has a lasting impression which will continue to appeal to brands,” according to Chandramouli.
(Published in Business Standard)
