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July 9, 2026
Neethi Lisa Rojan & Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, MINT
Mumbai/Bengaluru, 8 July 2026
The collapse of the US-Iran peace deal in less than a month has rattled India’s consumer sector, reviving fears that higher oil prices and fresh supply-chain disruptions could squeeze demand just as companies were betting on a broader recovery.
The renewed uncertainty followed US President Donald Trump’s declaration on Wednesday that the peace deal with Iran was effectively over, alongside Washington’s decision to end a sanctions waiver on Iranian energy supplies. The market reaction was swift. The Nifty FMCG Index fell 2.49% on Wednesday, underperforming the broader market as all 15 constituents declined, led by Dabur India, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Consumer Products, whose shares fell 3-4% each. The benchmark Nifty50 ended 2.12% lower after renewed hostilities in West Asia pushed crude prices higher.
Executives and analysts said companies have little room to respond immediately, leaving them to closely monitor devel opments as risks to costs and consumer spending mount. “I don’t think companies can react on this kind of a short notice,” said Arvind Singhal, chairman of consulting firm The Knowledge Company. “It takes 2-6 months to make any change in your plans and strategy. I think right now the Indian FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) companies will be watching the progress of monsoon more carefully than the Strait of Hormuz.”
Even after the US-Iran peace deal took effect on 18 June, consumer companies were unlikely to have expected immediate relief, analysts said.
“While everyone hoped for a cessation in hostilities, smart management teams would work on the realistic expectation that even with a ceasefire, pent-up supply chain input costs need to be absorbed over time, and pricing plans must be factored accordingly,” Devangshu Dutta, founder and chief executive of consulting firm Third Eyesight, said.
“Given that the conflict zone is active, I don’t think there is any immediate likelihood of pricing freeze or reductions, even though demand in rural areas as well as in lower-income urban segments is likely to be hit from both sides ― earnings and expenses.”
Large consumer goods companies including Dabur, Emami and Godrej Consumer had recently told investors they remained confident about consumer demand, including in rural markets.
But the renewed rise in crude prices, coupled with erratic monsoons marked by rainfall deficit in some regions and flooding in others, threatens to complicate that outlook. Higher fuel costs could lift prices of crude-linked raw materials such as plastic packaging and ingredients used in soaps and creams, while persistent inflation could push consumers to cut discretionary apne ding and trade down even on staples.
Major consumer companies had already raised prices or reduced grammage across packaged food, beverages and personal care products in the March quarter.
“As far as the crude prices are concerned, that is probably the only variable where the government has to decide as far as pricing of crude or the petroleum in India is concerned,” Singhal said.
That comes at an awkward time for India’s largest consumer companies, including Hindustan Unilever, which had earlier this year told analysts they intended to drive growth through higher volumes rather than price increases. A renewed bout of inflation could undermine that strategy.
(Published in MINT)
admin
May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
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May 2, 2026
Neethi Lisa Rojan, Mint
2 May 2026, Mumbai
Fast-moving consumer goods makers are leaning on a mix of price increases, smaller pack sizes and tighter cost controls to navigate raw-material volatility triggered by the ongoing US-Iran war, while still reporting robust volume growth for the March quarter. The ongoing war blew up end February this year, disrupting global supply chains.
Executives at top firms said calibrated pricing and ‘shrinkflation’ are helping them protect margins. The trend shows staples demand have held up, but also points to a gradual pass-through of higher commodity and packaging costs to consumers as geopolitical disruptions keep input prices elevated.
At Hindustan Unilever Ltd, the strategy is already in motion. The company has implemented calibrated price hikes and adjusted grammage across products. “We are taking calibrated pricing action in the range of 2-5%,” chief financial officer Niranjan Gupta said in a post-earnings briefing on Thursday. “We use a combination of both the put-down price as well as optimizing the fill levels,” said Gupta. The management also noted that its products in the homecare segment such as soaps (Lux, Pears, Dove, etc.) and detergents (Surf Excel, Rin, etc.) will be the first to be affected by price hikes. Interestingly, this happened at a time when HUL’s volumes grew the fastest in 15 quarters.
Companies have anticipated how consumers will behave.
“In times of inflation, income uncertainty, etc. essentials such as packaged foods, biscuits, and household cleaning products tend to see trade-down behaviour rather than outright disappearance of demand,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of management consultancy, Third Eyesight. “Consumers tend to shift to smaller pack sizes or private labels, rather than abandoning categories altogether,” he adds.
India’s retail inflation rose from 2.75% in January 2026 to a 10-month high of 3.40% in March, driven largely by food prices.
That balance between pricing and demand is playing out across the sector. Nestle S.A., the parent company of the Indian entity said it saw 3.5% organic sales growth during the quarter, with RIG (real internal growth or volume growth) of 1.2% and pricing of 2.3% in the January-March quarter.
“The conflict in the Middle East will have some impact on commodity and distribution costs, and possibly on consumer behavior. But it’s too early to know the full extent of this,” chief executive officer at Nestlé S.A, Philipp Navratil said in the analyst call after the results. Its India unit, Nestlé India, reported its strongest quarterly growth in nearly a decade, led by double-digit volume expansion.
HUL reported a 21% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹2,994 crore, while Nestle India saw net profit up 27% at ₹1,110.9 crore. year-on-year to ₹1,110.9 crore in Q4 FY26. HUL has also retained its medium-term guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) at 22.5%-23.5%.
The resilience in volumes comes even as input costs surge. Prices of crude oil-linked materials, especially packaging, have risen sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. High-density polyethylene, widely used in packaging, jumped about 42% in March from the previous month.
Multinationals are already bracing for the fallout. Tide and Gillette maker Procter & Gamble, said in its quarterly earnings call that it could take roughly a $1 billion post-tax hit to its fiscal 2027 profit from surging oil prices. Still, not all inputs are moving in tandem. Prices of staples such as wheat, sugar, tea and coffee have remained relatively stable, offering some cushion. Edible oils, however, remain a concern.
Palm oil, a critical input in many FMCG products, is seeing supply shifts, as producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia divert output toward biodiesel. AWL Agribusiness, which sells Fortune oil, said in the quarterly analyst call that edible oils faced a 10% price surge in March, which has already been passed to consumers. The company expects to pass on the rise in packaging material prices also soon. The company posted a 53% jump in consolidated net profit to ₹292 crore in Q4FY26, from ₹190 crore a year earlier.
Experts expect the trend of margin-saving strategies to continue.
“Depending on the product, category and brand, we will see a mix of price hikes, shrinkflation and rationalization of SKUs (stock keeping units), and also a shift from brand-related to tactical advertising and promotional spends to boost short-term demand,” Dutta said.
Elsewhere, companies are acknowledging broad-based inflation but are continuing to push through growth. Bajaj Consumer Care reported near double-digit volume gains even as managing director Naveen Pandey noted that “nearly 100%” of its cost base is under inflation. The company plans further pricing actions alongside cost optimization. Bajaj Consumer Care’s net profit for the March quarter more than doubled to ₹63.6 crore from a year ago.
Beyond the basics
The ripple effects extend beyond staples. Fashion, lifestyle and grocery retailer Trent Ltd flagged uncertainty around supply chains and inflation, warning of potential implications for near-term demand. “Duration and intensity of disruptions in the Middle East, along with its second order effect on supply chain, commodity prices and inflation in general has potential implications for near-term demand,” the company said in its results presentation.
Meanwhile, consumer appliance maker Havells India has initiated price increases after what chairman Anil Rai Gupta described as an unprecedented escalation in input costs. “I’ve not seen this kind of a price escalation in the recent past in the recent memory,” he said in the post results analyst call.“ Calibrated price actions have been initiated, he said. Havells India reported a strong 40% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹723 crore in the March quarter.
More clarity may emerge as additional earnings roll in. Companies with higher exposure to West Asia, such as Dabur and Emami, are yet to report results and could face greater consolidated impact due to regional disruptions. “Companies such as Dabur and Emami will be more affected at the consolidated level due to issues in the MENA or Middle East and North Africa Region (6-8% revenue salience),” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services ahead of the earnings season.
For now, inventory buffers are offering temporary relief. Some companies have built raw-material stockpiles lasting up to six months, helping them absorb immediate shocks. “In our international markets, our effect will be in the raw material, practically zero to a couple of points maybe because we are well-stocked not just for this quarter, but the next quarter also. We normally carry six months inventory in international,” said Raj Pal Gandhi, whole-time director at Varun Beverages, the largest bottler of Pepsico in India, in the quarterly analyst call. This has helped the firm tide over the challenges in plastic shortage faced in March.
However, companies will now have to buy raw materials at higher prices, leaving room open for more price hikes.
(Published in MINT)
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October 24, 2025
Entrepreneur India
Oct 23, 2025
Indian consumers are increasingly opting for private labels and in-house brands over established ones, and retailers are taking note. According to EY’s ‘Future Consumer Index 2025’, more than half of India’s consumers are now choosing in-house brands over legacy labels.
The report highlights that 52 per cent of Indian consumers have switched to private labels for better value, while 70 per cent believe these in-house brands offer comparable or superior quality. Backed by this shift, retailers from BigBasket to DMart, and quick-commerce players like Zepto and Blinkit, are doubling down on their private label strategies, viewing them as a path to higher margins, stronger brand loyalty, and greater pricing control.
“Indian consumers’ growing preference for private labels reflects both short-term price pressures and a longer-term structural evolution in retail,” said Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, speaking to Entrepreneur India.
Trending globally
The surge isn’t unique to India. A recent report by the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) notes that globally, private labels now account for over 45 per cent of grocery volume and are expanding faster than legacy brands.
In India, this shift is becoming increasingly visible in-store. The EY report found that 74 per cent of consumers have noticed more private label options where they shop, and 70 per cent say these products are now displayed more prominently, often placed at eye level, signalling a strategic retail push.
Commenting on this trend, Angshuman Bhattacharya, Partner and National Leader, Consumer Products and Retail Sector, EY-Parthenon, said, “Consumer behaviour has traditionally evolved in response to changing economic situations, but the current shifts appear to be more permanent. Retailers are confidently launching private labels and allocating prime shelf space to them, while technology is enhancing the shopping experience by providing consumers with limitless options and the ability to compare products.”
From price-fighters to power brands
According to Dutta, private labels are no longer just “copycat” alternatives meant to undercut national brands.
“For retailers, not just in India but globally, lookalike private labels used to be tools at the opening price point to hook the customer, who saw them as credible, affordable alternatives to national brands,” he explained, adding, “However, as retailers have grown, they have gained both scale and expertise to widen and deepen their supply chains.”
Over time, he said, investments in formulation, packaging, and quality consistency have increased consumer trust.
“Private labels now compete on functional benefits rather than only on price, particularly in food staples and apparel, but also in brown goods and white goods, and increasingly in personal care and other FMCG categories,” he added. [Must read: “Private Label Maturity Model”]
Retailers scale up private labels
As demand for in-house brands grows, retailers are scaling up their strategies across sectors.
BigBasket, one of India’s largest online grocery platforms, reported that 35–40 per cent of its FY24 sales came from private labels like Fresho, BB Royal, and Tasties. The company aims to push this share closer to 45 per cent through expansion in frozen foods and ready-to-eat categories.
DMart’s private label arm, Align Retail, has reportedly more than doubled its sales in two years, touching INR 3,322 crore in FY25. The retailer’s in-house brands in staples, apparel, and home essentials have helped boost margins in a highly competitive retail landscape.
Zepto, the quick-commerce player, is taking private labels into the 10-minute delivery domain. Its brand Relish, focused on meats and eggs, has achieved INR 40 crore in monthly sales.
Meanwhile, Reliance Retail has also expanded its portfolio of private labels, including Good Life, Enzo, and Puric, across groceries, personal care, and household products, strengthening its broader FMCG play. In 2024, Reliance Retail’s Tira Beauty also announced the launch of its latest private label brand, Nails Our Way, signifying a major expansion in its beauty offerings.
Capturing a lion’s share in retail
Dutta noted that in India, private labels will remain a core pillar of modern retail strategy rather than a cyclical response to cost pressures.
“Consumers increasingly view retailers as brand owners rather than intermediaries. As private labels mature in branding and innovation, their growth aligns more and more with brand equity development rather than just opportunistic cost-saving,” he said.
From a retailer’s perspective, private labels deliver higher gross margins and greater strategic control, Dutta said. [Must read: “Private Label Maturity Model”]
Another report by the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA), using Circana data, found that in 2024, private-label sales in food and non-edible categories grew faster than bigger brands globally. While figures vary by region and quarter, the pattern remains consistent: private labels are outpacing traditional FMCG growth.
Collectively, these shifts show that private labels are becoming a major revenue driver for retailers in India, and are fast evolving from value alternatives into brands with genuine consumer pull.
(Published in Entrepreneur India)
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March 4, 2025
Kashmeera Sambamurthy, Storyboard18
4 March 2025
A growing number of health advocates and industry watchdogs in India are raising concerns over misleading food advertisements, challenging brands on their claims and pushing for stricter regulations in an industry where marketing often outpaces oversight.
Recently, lifestyle guru Luke Coutinho called out quick-commerce platform Zepto over what he described as a misleading advertisement for garlic bread on Instagram. Sharing a screenshot of the ad on his social media, Coutinho criticized its promotion of refined carbohydrates as a bedtime snack, calling it “unethical” and a product of corporate greed. Tagging regulatory bodies including the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), he urged authorities to take action.
Similarly, Dr. Arun Gupta, convenor of Nutrition Advocacy in Public Interest (NAPi), a national think tank of medical experts, pediatricians, and nutritionists, highlighted a full-page advertisement in Delhi Times for Amul TRU, a fruit drink brand. The ad, published on February 14, emphasized the “goodness of real fruits in every pack,” but Gupta pointed out that the listed ingredients contained concentrated fruit rather than fresh produce.
These instances reflect a broader pattern of misleading advertising in India’s food and beverage sector. While such controversies have long existed, it was only on February 7 this year that the Indian government announced the formation of a 19-member committee, led by Union Minister of Food Processing Industries Chirag Paswan, to address deceptive marketing practices and introduce more stringent regulations.
India’s struggle with misleading food advertisements dates back years. The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) and FSSAI signed an MoU in 2016 to curb deceptive advertising in the food and beverage sector. Two years later, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) issued an order restricting junk food advertisements on children’s television channels, though they remained permissible on mainstream networks.
Despite these measures, misleading claims persist. In 2023 alone, FSSAI flagged 32 instances of food business operators violating the Food Safety and Standards (Advertisements & Claims) Regulations of 2018. That same year, actor Amitabh Bachchan faced criticism for endorsing Britannia Milk Bikis in a Kaun Banega Crorepati Junior commercial, where the biscuits were equated with the nutritional value of atta roti and a glass of milk.
Health influencer Revant Himatsingka, widely known as ‘Food Pharmer,’ also took on the industry, calling out Cadbury Bournvita for its high sugar content. Mondelez International reduced the product’s sugar levels by 15 percent and dropped its ‘health drink’ label from marketing materials.
The regulatory landscape includes four key frameworks to combat misleading food advertisements: the Food Safety and Standards Act (FSS Act), the Food Safety and Standards (Advertising and Claims) Regulations, 2018, the Consumer Protection Act (CPA), 2019, and the ASCI Code of Self-Regulation.
However, Gupta argues that these regulations require amendments to better define misleading claims. In 2024, NAPi lodged a complaint with FSSAI against advertisements for Parle-G Royale biscuits, which allegedly misrepresented their sugar content. The response? “There is no FSS regulation which says that nutrients will be declared in the advertisement,” authorities stated.
Gupta further highlighted that when FSSAI initially flagged 150 misleading advertisements in 2023, that number was later reduced to 32, with no clear updates on enforcement actions. “When the Kaun Banega Crorepati ad equated Britannia Milk Bikis with atta roti and milk, NAPi protested. The ad was pulled, but no fines were imposed,” he noted.
Celebrity endorsements add another layer to the issue. The 2024 TAM AdEx report found that food and beverage advertisements accounted for 28 percent of all celebrity-endorsed ads in India. The Consumer Protection Act, 2019, prohibits celebrities from endorsing banned products but allows promotions unless explicitly prohibited by law.
In a telling 2006 interview with journalist Karan Thapar, Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan defended his endorsement of soft drinks, arguing, “If soft drinks are bad, ban their production. If production is not stopped due to revenue concerns, don’t stop my revenue.”
ASCI CEO Manisha Kapoor observed that influencers frequently promote foods without disclosing financial ties to brands, making endorsements appear organic rather than paid sponsorships. Sweta Rajan, a partner at Economic Laws Practice, expressed concerns that celebrity-backed marketing distorts public perception of healthy eating. “The continuous exposure to such ads makes it difficult for consumers to make informed choices,” she said.
The recently formed 19-member government committee has been met with skepticism from experts who believe it may lack independence. “The committee does not include a public health expert. Half its members belong to industry bodies. It should form a subcommittee to define what constitutes healthy food,” Gupta said.
Himatsingka called for stringent penalties against brands found guilty of misleading advertisements, suggesting that companies be publicly named on a weekly basis. Rajan, meanwhile, warned against excessive regulation, arguing that it could stifle creativity. “A balance must be struck between regulation and creative advertising,” she said. Instead, she proposed incentives for brands that adopt honest marketing practices.
Some experts advocate for clearer front-of-pack labeling. “Currently, most food labels prioritize regulatory compliance over consumer awareness. Since literacy levels in India are lower than in many Western nations, labels should be simple and easy to understand,” said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of consultancy firm Third Eyesight.
Taxation has been another approach. Many processed foods in India attract an 18 to 28 percent GST rate, yet brands such as Coca-Cola, Lays, and Haldiram’s continue to thrive. “While taxes have some impact, they are not enough on their own,” Rajan noted.
Gupta suggested replacing FSSAI’s ‘Health Ratings’ – which he says benefit the industry more than consumers – with clear warning labels on ultra-processed foods. He said, “Consumers should be alerted to the risks, not misled by arbitrary ratings.”
(Published on Storyboard18)
