Weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices – dual challenge for the economy [Video]

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May 15, 2026

The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):

1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:

  • Inflationary pressures are hitting both sides of the market. While industries are facing rising input costs, the decision of how much cost to pass on to the consumer (through price increases or altering packaging sizes) rests with individual companies.
  • Any direct price increase immediately can dampen consumer demand. As a result, companies have been hesitant to pass the entire burden of inflation to consumers right away. However, if geopolitical conflicts persist long term, they will have no choice but to raise prices.

2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):

  • While public discussions often revolve around large, stock-market-listed corporations, the majority of the Indian economy is driven by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and small businesses.
  • These smaller entities face immense pressure from rising input costs coupled with falling demand, which ultimately translates to direct financial stress on households.

3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:

  • Due to these economic pressures, households will have to tighten their budgets over the next two quarters.
  • Individuals should brace for rising costs of goods and services while anticipating that household incomes may not increase at the same pace to balance it out.

4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:

  • The impact of crude oil is often misunderstood as only a transportation/logistics problem. While rising diesel prices inevitably raise truck freight rates that get passed onto products, oil’s impact is much broader.
  • Crude oil is a core raw material. It directly affects the cost of plastics used in product packaging and is also formed into other base ingredients for many products. Therefore, rising oil prices inflate the overall production costs of almost every retail product, even if their logistical share is small.

5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:

  • Lower-income groups, including daily wage earners and unskilled workers have fixed incomes and no financial cushions, forcing an immediate disruption in their daily essential spending. For the Middle-income groups, fixed liabilities like rent and EMIs will not decrease. To balance their household budgets, middle-class consumers will first cut back on discretionary spending (spending by choice), such as reducing outdoor dining, entertainment, and online food deliveries.
  • If inflation lasts longer, consumers will resort to “down-trading”, either substituting premium products with cheaper alternative brands or buying smaller packet sizes.
  • Companies are already shifting to “shrinkflation” tactics to avoid breaking critical price points. Instead of increasing the retail price, they are reducing the product volume (e.g., shrinking a packet from 100 grams to 80 grams).

The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]

Shrinkflation, price hikes buzz in consumer firms as war spikes costs

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May 2, 2026

Neethi Lisa Rojan, Mint

2 May 2026, Mumbai

Fast-moving consumer goods makers are leaning on a mix of price increases, smaller pack sizes and tighter cost controls to navigate raw-material volatility triggered by the ongoing US-Iran war, while still reporting robust volume growth for the March quarter. The ongoing war blew up end February this year, disrupting global supply chains.

Executives at top firms said calibrated pricing and ‘shrinkflation’ are helping them protect margins. The trend shows staples demand have held up, but also points to a gradual pass-through of higher commodity and packaging costs to consumers as geopolitical disruptions keep input prices elevated.

At Hindustan Unilever Ltd, the strategy is already in motion. The company has implemented calibrated price hikes and adjusted grammage across products. “We are taking calibrated pricing action in the range of 2-5%,” chief financial officer Niranjan Gupta said in a post-earnings briefing on Thursday. “We use a combination of both the put-down price as well as optimizing the fill levels,” said Gupta. The management also noted that its products in the homecare segment such as soaps (Lux, Pears, Dove, etc.) and detergents (Surf Excel, Rin, etc.) will be the first to be affected by price hikes. Interestingly, this happened at a time when HUL’s volumes grew the fastest in 15 quarters.

Companies have anticipated how consumers will behave.

“In times of inflation, income uncertainty, etc. essentials such as packaged foods, biscuits, and household cleaning products tend to see trade-down behaviour rather than outright disappearance of demand,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of management consultancy, Third Eyesight. “Consumers tend to shift to smaller pack sizes or private labels, rather than abandoning categories altogether,” he adds.

India’s retail inflation rose from 2.75% in January 2026 to a 10-month high of 3.40% in March, driven largely by food prices.

That balance between pricing and demand is playing out across the sector. Nestle S.A., the parent company of the Indian entity said it saw 3.5% organic sales growth during the quarter, with RIG (real internal growth or volume growth) of 1.2% and pricing of 2.3% in the January-March quarter.

“The conflict in the Middle East will have some impact on commodity and distribution costs, and possibly on consumer behavior. But it’s too early to know the full extent of this,” chief executive officer at Nestlé S.A, Philipp Navratil said in the analyst call after the results. Its India unit, Nestlé India, reported its strongest quarterly growth in nearly a decade, led by double-digit volume expansion.

HUL reported a 21% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹2,994 crore, while Nestle India saw net profit up 27% at ₹1,110.9 crore. year-on-year to ₹1,110.9 crore in Q4 FY26. HUL has also retained its medium-term guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) at 22.5%-23.5%.

The resilience in volumes comes even as input costs surge. Prices of crude oil-linked materials, especially packaging, have risen sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. High-density polyethylene, widely used in packaging, jumped about 42% in March from the previous month.

Multinationals are already bracing for the fallout. Tide and Gillette maker Procter & Gamble, said in its quarterly earnings call that it could take roughly a $1 billion post-tax hit to its fiscal 2027 profit from surging oil prices. Still, not all inputs are moving in tandem. Prices of staples such as wheat, sugar, tea and coffee have remained relatively stable, offering some cushion. Edible oils, however, remain a concern.

Palm oil, a critical input in many FMCG products, is seeing supply shifts, as producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia divert output toward biodiesel. AWL Agribusiness, which sells Fortune oil, said in the quarterly analyst call that edible oils faced a 10% price surge in March, which has already been passed to consumers. The company expects to pass on the rise in packaging material prices also soon. The company posted a 53% jump in consolidated net profit to ₹292 crore in Q4FY26, from ₹190 crore a year earlier.

Experts expect the trend of margin-saving strategies to continue.

“Depending on the product, category and brand, we will see a mix of price hikes, shrinkflation and rationalization of SKUs (stock keeping units), and also a shift from brand-related to tactical advertising and promotional spends to boost short-term demand,” Dutta said.

Elsewhere, companies are acknowledging broad-based inflation but are continuing to push through growth. Bajaj Consumer Care reported near double-digit volume gains even as managing director Naveen Pandey noted that “nearly 100%” of its cost base is under inflation. The company plans further pricing actions alongside cost optimization. Bajaj Consumer Care’s net profit for the March quarter more than doubled to ₹63.6 crore from a year ago.

Beyond the basics

The ripple effects extend beyond staples. Fashion, lifestyle and grocery retailer Trent Ltd flagged uncertainty around supply chains and inflation, warning of potential implications for near-term demand. “Duration and intensity of disruptions in the Middle East, along with its second order effect on supply chain, commodity prices and inflation in general has potential implications for near-term demand,” the company said in its results presentation.

Meanwhile, consumer appliance maker Havells India has initiated price increases after what chairman Anil Rai Gupta described as an unprecedented escalation in input costs. “I’ve not seen this kind of a price escalation in the recent past in the recent memory,” he said in the post results analyst call.“ Calibrated price actions have been initiated, he said. Havells India reported a strong 40% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹723 crore in the March quarter.

More clarity may emerge as additional earnings roll in. Companies with higher exposure to West Asia, such as Dabur and Emami, are yet to report results and could face greater consolidated impact due to regional disruptions. “Companies such as Dabur and Emami will be more affected at the consolidated level due to issues in the MENA or Middle East and North Africa Region (6-8% revenue salience),” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services ahead of the earnings season.

For now, inventory buffers are offering temporary relief. Some companies have built raw-material stockpiles lasting up to six months, helping them absorb immediate shocks. “In our international markets, our effect will be in the raw material, practically zero to a couple of points maybe because we are well-stocked not just for this quarter, but the next quarter also. We normally carry six months inventory in international,” said Raj Pal Gandhi, whole-time director at Varun Beverages, the largest bottler of Pepsico in India, in the quarterly analyst call. This has helped the firm tide over the challenges in plastic shortage faced in March.

However, companies will now have to buy raw materials at higher prices, leaving room open for more price hikes.

(Published in MINT)

India’s Retail Sector Witnesses Rising Demand for Private Labels

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October 24, 2025

Entrepreneur India
Oct 23, 2025

Indian consumers are increasingly opting for private labels and in-house brands over established ones, and retailers are taking note. According to EY’s ‘Future Consumer Index 2025’, more than half of India’s consumers are now choosing in-house brands over legacy labels.

The report highlights that 52 per cent of Indian consumers have switched to private labels for better value, while 70 per cent believe these in-house brands offer comparable or superior quality. Backed by this shift, retailers from BigBasket to DMart, and quick-commerce players like Zepto and Blinkit, are doubling down on their private label strategies, viewing them as a path to higher margins, stronger brand loyalty, and greater pricing control.

“Indian consumers’ growing preference for private labels reflects both short-term price pressures and a longer-term structural evolution in retail,” said Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, speaking to Entrepreneur India.

Trending globally

The surge isn’t unique to India. A recent report by the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) notes that globally, private labels now account for over 45 per cent of grocery volume and are expanding faster than legacy brands.

In India, this shift is becoming increasingly visible in-store. The EY report found that 74 per cent of consumers have noticed more private label options where they shop, and 70 per cent say these products are now displayed more prominently, often placed at eye level, signalling a strategic retail push.

Commenting on this trend, Angshuman Bhattacharya, Partner and National Leader, Consumer Products and Retail Sector, EY-Parthenon, said, “Consumer behaviour has traditionally evolved in response to changing economic situations, but the current shifts appear to be more permanent. Retailers are confidently launching private labels and allocating prime shelf space to them, while technology is enhancing the shopping experience by providing consumers with limitless options and the ability to compare products.”

From price-fighters to power brands

According to Dutta, private labels are no longer just “copycat” alternatives meant to undercut national brands.

“For retailers, not just in India but globally, lookalike private labels used to be tools at the opening price point to hook the customer, who saw them as credible, affordable alternatives to national brands,” he explained, adding, “However, as retailers have grown, they have gained both scale and expertise to widen and deepen their supply chains.”

Over time, he said, investments in formulation, packaging, and quality consistency have increased consumer trust.

“Private labels now compete on functional benefits rather than only on price, particularly in food staples and apparel, but also in brown goods and white goods, and increasingly in personal care and other FMCG categories,” he added. [Must read: “Private Label Maturity Model”]

Retailers scale up private labels

As demand for in-house brands grows, retailers are scaling up their strategies across sectors.

BigBasket, one of India’s largest online grocery platforms, reported that 35–40 per cent of its FY24 sales came from private labels like Fresho, BB Royal, and Tasties. The company aims to push this share closer to 45 per cent through expansion in frozen foods and ready-to-eat categories.

DMart’s private label arm, Align Retail, has reportedly more than doubled its sales in two years, touching INR 3,322 crore in FY25. The retailer’s in-house brands in staples, apparel, and home essentials have helped boost margins in a highly competitive retail landscape.

Zepto, the quick-commerce player, is taking private labels into the 10-minute delivery domain. Its brand Relish, focused on meats and eggs, has achieved INR 40 crore in monthly sales.

Meanwhile, Reliance Retail has also expanded its portfolio of private labels, including Good Life, Enzo, and Puric, across groceries, personal care, and household products, strengthening its broader FMCG play. In 2024, Reliance Retail’s Tira Beauty also announced the launch of its latest private label brand, Nails Our Way, signifying a major expansion in its beauty offerings.

Capturing a lion’s share in retail

Dutta noted that in India, private labels will remain a core pillar of modern retail strategy rather than a cyclical response to cost pressures.

“Consumers increasingly view retailers as brand owners rather than intermediaries. As private labels mature in branding and innovation, their growth aligns more and more with brand equity development rather than just opportunistic cost-saving,” he said.

From a retailer’s perspective, private labels deliver higher gross margins and greater strategic control, Dutta said. [Must read: “Private Label Maturity Model”]

Another report by the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA), using Circana data, found that in 2024, private-label sales in food and non-edible categories grew faster than bigger brands globally. While figures vary by region and quarter, the pattern remains consistent: private labels are outpacing traditional FMCG growth.

Collectively, these shifts show that private labels are becoming a major revenue driver for retailers in India, and are fast evolving from value alternatives into brands with genuine consumer pull.

(Published in Entrepreneur India)

Bitter truth behind food ads: Will stricter regulations finally hold brands accountable?

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March 4, 2025

Kashmeera Sambamurthy, Storyboard18
4 March 2025

A growing number of health advocates and industry watchdogs in India are raising concerns over misleading food advertisements, challenging brands on their claims and pushing for stricter regulations in an industry where marketing often outpaces oversight.

Recently, lifestyle guru Luke Coutinho called out quick-commerce platform Zepto over what he described as a misleading advertisement for garlic bread on Instagram. Sharing a screenshot of the ad on his social media, Coutinho criticized its promotion of refined carbohydrates as a bedtime snack, calling it “unethical” and a product of corporate greed. Tagging regulatory bodies including the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), he urged authorities to take action.

Similarly, Dr. Arun Gupta, convenor of Nutrition Advocacy in Public Interest (NAPi), a national think tank of medical experts, pediatricians, and nutritionists, highlighted a full-page advertisement in Delhi Times for Amul TRU, a fruit drink brand. The ad, published on February 14, emphasized the “goodness of real fruits in every pack,” but Gupta pointed out that the listed ingredients contained concentrated fruit rather than fresh produce.

These instances reflect a broader pattern of misleading advertising in India’s food and beverage sector. While such controversies have long existed, it was only on February 7 this year that the Indian government announced the formation of a 19-member committee, led by Union Minister of Food Processing Industries Chirag Paswan, to address deceptive marketing practices and introduce more stringent regulations.

India’s struggle with misleading food advertisements dates back years. The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) and FSSAI signed an MoU in 2016 to curb deceptive advertising in the food and beverage sector. Two years later, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) issued an order restricting junk food advertisements on children’s television channels, though they remained permissible on mainstream networks.

Despite these measures, misleading claims persist. In 2023 alone, FSSAI flagged 32 instances of food business operators violating the Food Safety and Standards (Advertisements & Claims) Regulations of 2018. That same year, actor Amitabh Bachchan faced criticism for endorsing Britannia Milk Bikis in a Kaun Banega Crorepati Junior commercial, where the biscuits were equated with the nutritional value of atta roti and a glass of milk.

Health influencer Revant Himatsingka, widely known as ‘Food Pharmer,’ also took on the industry, calling out Cadbury Bournvita for its high sugar content. Mondelez International reduced the product’s sugar levels by 15 percent and dropped its ‘health drink’ label from marketing materials.

The regulatory landscape includes four key frameworks to combat misleading food advertisements: the Food Safety and Standards Act (FSS Act), the Food Safety and Standards (Advertising and Claims) Regulations, 2018, the Consumer Protection Act (CPA), 2019, and the ASCI Code of Self-Regulation.

However, Gupta argues that these regulations require amendments to better define misleading claims. In 2024, NAPi lodged a complaint with FSSAI against advertisements for Parle-G Royale biscuits, which allegedly misrepresented their sugar content. The response? “There is no FSS regulation which says that nutrients will be declared in the advertisement,” authorities stated.

Gupta further highlighted that when FSSAI initially flagged 150 misleading advertisements in 2023, that number was later reduced to 32, with no clear updates on enforcement actions. “When the Kaun Banega Crorepati ad equated Britannia Milk Bikis with atta roti and milk, NAPi protested. The ad was pulled, but no fines were imposed,” he noted.

Celebrity endorsements add another layer to the issue. The 2024 TAM AdEx report found that food and beverage advertisements accounted for 28 percent of all celebrity-endorsed ads in India. The Consumer Protection Act, 2019, prohibits celebrities from endorsing banned products but allows promotions unless explicitly prohibited by law.

In a telling 2006 interview with journalist Karan Thapar, Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan defended his endorsement of soft drinks, arguing, “If soft drinks are bad, ban their production. If production is not stopped due to revenue concerns, don’t stop my revenue.”

ASCI CEO Manisha Kapoor observed that influencers frequently promote foods without disclosing financial ties to brands, making endorsements appear organic rather than paid sponsorships. Sweta Rajan, a partner at Economic Laws Practice, expressed concerns that celebrity-backed marketing distorts public perception of healthy eating. “The continuous exposure to such ads makes it difficult for consumers to make informed choices,” she said.

The recently formed 19-member government committee has been met with skepticism from experts who believe it may lack independence. “The committee does not include a public health expert. Half its members belong to industry bodies. It should form a subcommittee to define what constitutes healthy food,” Gupta said.

Himatsingka called for stringent penalties against brands found guilty of misleading advertisements, suggesting that companies be publicly named on a weekly basis. Rajan, meanwhile, warned against excessive regulation, arguing that it could stifle creativity. “A balance must be struck between regulation and creative advertising,” she said. Instead, she proposed incentives for brands that adopt honest marketing practices.

Some experts advocate for clearer front-of-pack labeling. “Currently, most food labels prioritize regulatory compliance over consumer awareness. Since literacy levels in India are lower than in many Western nations, labels should be simple and easy to understand,” said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of consultancy firm Third Eyesight.

Taxation has been another approach. Many processed foods in India attract an 18 to 28 percent GST rate, yet brands such as Coca-Cola, Lays, and Haldiram’s continue to thrive. “While taxes have some impact, they are not enough on their own,” Rajan noted.

Gupta suggested replacing FSSAI’s ‘Health Ratings’ – which he says benefit the industry more than consumers – with clear warning labels on ultra-processed foods. He said, “Consumers should be alerted to the risks, not misled by arbitrary ratings.”

(Published on Storyboard18)

The Classic pivot: Charting ITC’s FMCG growth story

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October 13, 2023

Anand JC, Economic Times
13 October 2023

Once the butt of jokes in Dalal Street circles, 113-year-old ITC has turned a new leaf in recent years, as its strategy to derive higher revenue from its consumer business is bearing fruit, bit by bit.

Registered in Calcutta as the Imperial Tobacco Company, the FMCG major has always relied on its cigarettes and leaf tobacco business for a major chunk of its revenues. ITC’s true diversification move might have begun with the launch of its hotel in Chennai in 1975, including a failed attempt at the financial services business, but it wasn’t until August 2001 that the tale of the FMCG behemoth came to be.

Having relied on its cigarette business since 1910, ITC has increasingly sought to earn more from its ‘cleaner’ consumer goods products. In a 2018 interview, CEO Sanjiv Puri admitted that while the journey to diversify the company started a long time ago, it only got traction around 2008. Under Puri’s first term as the ITC chairman, the company embarked on the ‘ITC Next’ strategy. The first decade was focused on preparing the company for the transition, he said. ITC now can innovate products, create brands and allow “pro-neurs” or professional entrepreneurs to build businesses in FMCG.

The plan has worked

ITC, a darling of dividend-led investing lovers, has always been a long-term growth story in the making. Nearly two decades after entering the food business, the company holds a leadership position across categories.

As per the company’s latest annual report, it holds the leadership spot in the branded Atta market through Aashirvaad, cream biscuits segment via Sunfeast, bridges segment of snack foods via Bingo!, notebooks via Classmate and dhoop segment via Mangaldeep. Its Yippee noodles trails Nestle’s Maggi, as the latter continues to lead in a highly consolidated market. However, Yippee has managed to gobble up Maggi’s share at an enviable pace. Capturing these positions, this quickly is no easy feat either.

One of the things that worked for ITC is their understanding of the distribution of products, stemming from their strength in the tobacco business. ITC started exploring aggressively diversifying away from the tobacco business around the 90s, says Devangshu Dutta, head of retail consultancy Third Eyesight.

ITC’s foray into the food business was supported by its presence in the hotel business. “Some of the marquee products that used to be served in their hotel restaurants, packaged dal and so on, they packaged and sold but it was not a humungous success. It was marginal at best.”

“But they started understanding the distribution aspect because those were sold through traditional distribution channels,” Dutta says.

ITC also put in a lot of financial muscle behind the brand building, given no dearth of resources, Dutta says. This helped them grow rapidly in product categories in which they didn’t have a presence earlier on.

“Starting from scratch, particularly on the foods side, ITC has been one of the most successful companies in the last 15-20 years. Their overall revenue this year has been roughly Rs 19,000 crore, out of which Rs 15,000-16,000 is purely from foods segment,” Amnish Aggarwal, Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher told ET Online.

“For a company which started this business, maybe, say, two decades back, this is a very big achievement,” he says.

Unlike its commanding position in its cigarette business, ITC’s ‘other-FMCG’ ambitions faced stiff competition from local and national companies in categories including soaps, shampoos, atta, snacks, biscuits, noodles and confectioneries.

Supporting ITC’s ‘other-FMCG’ ambitions is its core competency, the cigarette business. ITC’s consumer business’ growth has weathered storms, in part, thanks to the cash flows generated by its cigarette business which has helped it create stronger brands, an essential part of any consumer-centric business. Through its cigarette business, ITC also gets unparalleled access to a network of brick-and-mortar stores that have a diverse presence across India.

Also complimenting its growth is ITC’s agri-business, a segment which has also grown in strength over the years. From 10 per cent in FY14, the agri-business in FY23 contributed around 24 per cent to the company’s revenue from operations, as per ET Online’s calculations. ITC over the years has invested in building a competitive agri-commodity sourcing expertise. Some of these structural advantages have facilitated the company’s sourcing of agri raw materials for ITC’s branded packaged foods businesses, be it towards its atta, dairy or spices.

Like its peers, ITC too has given a fair deal of importance to its digital push, with more and more companies launching their D2C platforms. These platforms help customers buy products directly from the company website without the hassle of dealing with channel partners, and at the same time, the companies get their hands on first-party data. Such access can help the company market its offerings better. ITC, like some of its other peers, has also been investing in start-ups to diversify its product portfolio. It recently invested in Yoga Bar and Mother Sparsh.

The numbers behind ITC’s consumer business behemoth

Built to engage in the tobacco business, ITC got into cigarette packaging nearly 100 years ago. Another intent in recent decades has been to focus more on the non-cigarette business.

Puri saw it coming.

Upon being asked about the FMCG business overtaking cigarettes, Puri had said “We do not give guidance. But it will certainly happen because the other businesses are growing faster.”

After contributing nearly 62 per cent to the overall revenue in FY14, the cigarettes business in FY23 contributed only around 37 per cent.

ET Online calculations show that the other-FMCG business contributed 17 per cent to the overall revenue in FY14, which grew to 25 per cent in FY23.

Data confirms the claims made in the above segment. ITC’s non-cigarettes businesses have grown over 31-fold and currently form over two-thirds of its net segmental revenues. The company’s other-FMCG business didn’t start turning consistent profits up until FY14. Since then, it has gone from strength to strength.

ITC’s Other FMCG segment (the second largest contributor to sales) is also witnessing strong earnings and growth momentum, unlike most consumer staples peers.

The segment clocked a revenue of 19 per cent YoY while Nestle and Britannia saw 21 and 11 per cent growth each. FMCG EBITDA performance was even better, with the margin expanding by 430 bps YoY to 13.3 per cent & EBITDA growing 2.1x YoY.

Laughing stock no more

For years, the cigarette business has funded the growth of ITC’s other businesses like non-cigarette FMCG products, sometimes to the ire of shareholders who weren’t happy with the slow growth in financials and scrip value.

A slower growth in scrip value meant that for years ITC was also the laughing stock among social media circles. The stock often remained elusive during market rallies in the previous decade, offering poor returns in comparison to FMCG peers. Between 2014 and July 2022, ITC rose with dividends rose 53 per cent while Nifty50 rose 200 per cent, as per moneydhan.com, a SEBI RIA. ITC’s shares trailed the Sensex for five out of eight years through 2020.

“In the last ten years, HUL has done far, far better than ITC. And if you look at other companies in the same universe, say Dabur, it has also given superior performance. ITC has actually underperformed many of the large consumer names,” Aggarwal said.

But fast forward to 2023, not only is it among the best performers within the benchmark index, ITC has even trumped it. While Nifty50 has gained around 17 per cent in the last year, ITC has grown nearly 40 per cent. The ITC scrip in July crossed a market capitalization of Rs 6 lakh crore, beating HUL to become the largest FMCG company.

Sin stock

Prompting a move away to other segments is the nature of the cigarettes business. Tobacco is toxic, and investors are increasingly recognising it as such. Sin stocks are shares of companies engaged in a business or industry that is considered unethical or immoral.

While Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing may be at a nascent stage in India, it is a serious parameter for global investors. Asia’s largest cigarette maker ITC cannot ignore it.

“The company sustained its ‘AA’ rating by MSCI-ESG –the highest amongst global tobacco companies– and was also included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Emerging Markets Index,” Puri noted in the company’s 2022 sustainability report.

Cigarettes, a bitter but essential overhang

For all the accolades for its gains in its other-FMCG business, ITC is nowhere close to ending its love for cigarettes, not that we are claiming it wants to. The Gold Flake-maker currently controls nearly 80% of the cigarette market.

The numbers in recent years suggest that the segment is flourishing more than ever before.

On an annualized basis, the return on depreciated cigarette assets is approaching a staggering 240%, three times the level two decades ago, as per a Bloomberg report. The entire legal cigarette industry was bleeding in the recent past due to punitive and discriminatory taxation on cigarettes. Taxes on cigarettes in India are multiple times higher than in developed countries viz. 17x of USA, 10x of Japan, 7x of Germany and so on, data shows.

But, companies are now recovering due to stable taxation. ITC’s three four-year cigarette sales CAGR are at their best levels since FY15 despite the company not taking material price increases over the last 13-14 months, as per a Motilal Oswal report.

ITC, which accounts for three out of every four cigarettes sold in the white market in the country, is currently seeing its best growth levels in over a decade, and is far superior to the flattish volumes of the past ten and twenty years.

(Published in Economic Times)