Depresso! Cafés go through the grinder

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January 9, 2025

Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
9 January 2025

Starbucks, Barista, Chaayos and Third Wave Coffee are among café chains facing the brunt of a slowdown in discretionary consumer spending. The impact is more severe for these retailers as they opened hundreds of new stores last fiscal year even as losses widened. To be sure, smaller chains such as Tim Hortons and Blue Tokai have bucked the trend.

Experts attribute the expansion rush to the urge among these retailers – both chains and standalone stores – to outpace competition. In certain instance, it led the same retailer to add stores in the same location, impacting its own growth instead of growing the pie.

At Rs 250 to Rs 350 for a cup of coffee, most chains target affluent, discerning coffee enthusiasts with artisanal brewing and experiential consumption, restricting the consumer base.

Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said the number of outlets have been expanding since 2022.

This was true for not just the new brands but also existing ones, Dutta said. “Cafe density in larger cities has gone up dramatically in the last couple of years.”

Growth rate fell to just 5% in FY24 from nearly 70% at Barista and Chaayos while Starbucks’ sales growth declined to 12% in FY24 from 70% in FY23. Third Wave saw sales growth slump to 67% from 355% during the period. Cafe Coffee Day posted a 9% increase in FY24, though sharply slowing from 59% a year ago.

Tim Hortons, however, more than doubled its sales last fiscal, its first full year of operations. Blue Tokai also bucked the slowdown trend with a 70% growth in FY24, compared to 73% in FY23.

Blue Tokai cofounder Matt Chitharanjan believes growth in India’s out-of-home coffee market is more than just a caffeine surge—reflecting the country’s shifting economic fabric. “Coffee consumption is strongly linked to income growth and India has reached a tipping point where it will support growth in the segment and should only accelerate going forward,” Chitharanjan told ET. “We have not seen any slowdown in coffee consumption and our positioning is also more product centric instead of just a cafe, which helped in double-digit same store sales growth.”

Tim Hortons, a Canadian coffee chain, which opened its first outlet in India in 2022, plans to have over 100 stores in the next three years. British coffee and sandwich chain Pret A Manger too launched its first shop in Mumbai as part of a franchise agreement with Reliance Brands. It plans to open up to 100 stores over the next five years. Third Wave and Blue Tokai are running more than 250 stores combined while Starbucks had over 330 stores as of March-end.

Tata Starbucks—the equal JV between Tata Consumer Products and US-based Starbucks Corp—said store footfalls have become a concern and the company has tweaked portfolio and pricing to attract traffic. Last year, the chain introduced classic hot and iced coffee starting at Rs 150 for a small cup, about 20-30% cheaper than regular coffee offered at Starbucks and other cafe chains.

“The stress is being seen across the quick service restaurant segment. It’s an overall consumer spending issue, especially in urban areas. And my hypothesis is probably food inflation is higher than what we think,” Sunil D’Souza, MD at Tata Consumer Products said during the December quarter earnings call.

Globally as well as in India, coffee growers have been hit with uncertain weather conditions while geopolitical factors are also affecting supply chains, which in turn, lifted prices to a record high. “The biggest challenge is erratic weather and climate change which has sent coffee prices to a 50-year high, but we will have to see how it impacts our pricing and profit after the current harvest,” said Chitharanjan at Blue Tokai.

(Published in Economic Times)

Mid-sized global restaurant chains find Indian market palatable

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August 19, 2024

Ratna Bhushan, Economic Times
New Delhi, 19 August 2024

Close to a dozen small to mid-sized global cafes and restaurant brands have either entered India in the past two quarters or are in talks with local players at a time when large global chains are seeing sharp decline in same store sales and growth.

Mid-sized global chains are making investments even in a modest range of Rs. 20-30 crore to tap select cities and intend to keep store counts under about 30 to stay profitable on each store. This is in contrast to earlier times when cafes and chains entered India with mega deals and investment plans, executives said.

Belgian bakery Le Pain Quotidien, French patisserie chain Laduree, UK’s JD Wetherspoon and Frank HotDogs are among those to have inked collaborations with Indian partners, while newer homegrown ones such as Harley’s, Paper & Pie, abCoffee and First Coffee are expanding with first-time investors and mid-rung store rollouts.

“A combination of factors is driving this change of newer, smaller launches,” said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of retail consultancy Third Eyesight. “There are niches the newer chains are addressing as consumers’ choices evolve and get more specific. Also, there’s a broadening of a wealth base in India leading to mid-sized business houses having capability to invest and willingness to try out newer segments,” he said.

With the big-bang launches in food services drying up, there’s been a mushrooming of small deals that is expected to surge.

Bake & Brew, which has inked a master franchise agreement with Belgian bakery chain Le Pain Quotidien to re-enter India, is investing Rs 35 crore in the first year. “We’ll start in metros and may expand to smaller towns later. We also see potential in travel retail, airports and larger train stations,” Annick Van Overstraeten, chief executive of Le Pain Quotidien, told ET. Bake & Brew is backed by the Nalanda group with core business interests in automotive metal parts.

Earlier this month, the French patisserie chain Laduree said it was launching its cafe at Ritz-Carlton, Pune, in collaboration with CK Israni Group which has business interests in home decor and construction. Its Managing Director Chandni Nath Israni said in a statement that the CK Israni group planned to expand Laduree’s presence across other Indian cities.

Experimenting in newer cuisines is also driving the change. “Our decision to expand in India stems from a deep appreciation for variety and a passion for bold flavours. We see great potential in the Indian market,” said Benjamin Attal, founder of US chain Franks Hot Dog.

Smaller and newer homegrown chains, in contrast, are expanding, backed by mid-ticket investors and business houses, many of whom are foraying into food services for the first time.

Last week Brigade Group, a realtor, announced a partnership with specialty coffee chain abCoffee to set up six outlets within Brigade properties.

“We partnered with abCoffee to enhance the F&B offerings at our office parks. abCoffee is able to retrofit into operational buildings without requiring additional water or gas points,” Arvind Rao, vice president – commercial business, Brigade Group, said.

Specialty coffee startup First Coffee plans to open 35 stores by 2024-end “focused on delivery and minimalist store aesthetic,” according to a company statement, to sell flavoured coffees, cold brews and bubble teas.

(Published in Economic Times)

Big retailers, Reliance to Titan, slash jobs by 52,000 in FY24

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August 19, 2024

Sagar Malviya & Faizan Haidar, Economic Times
19 August 2024, Mumbai/New Delhi

About a dozen listed lifestyle, grocery retailers and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) reduced their employee count by nearly 26,000 in FY24, retreating from the hiring spree of the past two financial years after they slowed down store expansion rate amid weakening demand.

According to their latest annual reports, the reduction was completely led by five retailers – Reliance Industries’ retail arm, Titan, Raymond, Page and Spencers – which saw their combined workforce decline 17% or by 52,000 people. The staff count was across permanent and contractual employees and adjusted for attrition in the retail segment, the second largest employer after agriculture. These retailers had a combined workforce of 429,000 people in FY24 compared to 455,000 employees a year ago.

“There is a shortage of talent and we are trying to tie up with universities so that the industry has the option to hire. Some companies might have reduced staff due to shutting of some business, but companies like Shoppers Stop and Trent continue to expand and will require staff,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO of Retailers Association of India that represents organised retailers in the country.

Consumers had started reducing non-essential spending such as that on apparel, lifestyle products, electronics and dining out since Diwali 2022 due to inflation, increase in interest rates, job losses in sectors like startups and IT, and an overall slowdown in the economy. India’s retail sales expansion slowed to 4% last year after a surge in spending across segments-from clothes to cars-in the post-pandemic period, triggered by revenge shopping.

RIL in its annual report said the overall voluntary separations in FY24 were lower than FY23 and the retail industry typically has a high employee turnover rate, especially in store operations.

“Store productivity usually happens in cycles and we have seen consumers unleash their spending post pandemic, which led to retailers expanding their network or square footage. However, if some of the stores are unviable, then management teams are now highly objective, even ruthless, and will shut stores,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight. “In addition, any company planning to list would like to have healthy and lean operations, although we cannot pin-point it to Reliance in this case.”

Weak sales saw these retailers having the slowest pace of store expansions in at least five years at 9%. The retail sector took 7.1 million square feet of space across top eight cities in 2023, which is expected to dip to 6-6.5 million sq ft in 2024, according to commercial real estate services firm CBRE.

“There’s an enormous management bandwidth requirement to just get this entire ship running in the right trajectory, right direction, and with the relevant speed. We are thinking about what this company will be 10 years from now. And hence, if you want to reach there in a nice way without too much damage or bruises, then what is the kind of talent we need to have today in the next 2 years, in the next 3 years?” Avenue Supermarts CEO & MD Neville Noronha asked investors.

(Published in Economic Times)

Realty race in Maximum City as Tata Group, Reliance Industries keep on shopping

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February 23, 2024

Kailash Babar & Sagar Malviya, Economic Times

Mumbai, 23 February 2024

Tata Group and Reliance Industries, two of India’s largest conglomerates, are vying for premium retail real estate in Mumbai as they extend their footprints, creating rivalry in a city starved of marquee properties. From Zara and Starbucks to Westside and Titan, the Tata Group occupies nearly 25 million square feet of retail space in India. That is still no match for Reliance Industries that control three times more at 73 million sq ft for more than 100 local and global brands.

But in Mumbai, they are evenly matched, having nearly 3 million sq ft of retail space each. That is a quarter of what is considered the most prime retail real estate in the country, and both the retail giants are looking for more.

“In a modern retail environment, most visible locations contain more successful or larger brands. It just so happens that many of those brands are owned by either Reliance or the Tatas,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a strategy consulting firm.

“Tatas have been in retail for longer but also slower to scale up compared to Reliance which had this stated ambition of being the most dominant and put the money behind it,” he said.

In a market where demand is much higher than supply, developers and landlords seek to separate the wheat from the chaff, experts said. Ultimately, success in Mumbai’s retail real estate scene hinges on a delicate equilibrium between accommodating industry leaders and fostering a vibrant, varied shopping environment, they said. “In the competitive landscape of retail real estate in Mumbai, commercial developers and mall owners often face the strategic challenge of accommodating prominent retail brands,” said Abhishek Sharma, director, retail, at commercial real estate consultants Knight Frank India.

“These big brands, with a significant market share of 40-45% in the Indian retail sector, can easily be termed as industry giants and possess the potential to command 45-50% of space in any mall,” he said. According to Sharma, there may be perceptions of preferential treatments, but the dynamics are complex, and developers must balance the demand from these major brands with the need for a diverse tenant mix.

Tata Group entered retail in the late 1980s, initially by opening Titan watch stores and a decade later by launching department store Westside. So far, it has about 4,600 stores, including brands such as Tanishq, Starbucks, Westside, Zudio, Zara and Croma.

While Reliance Retail started in 2006, it overcompensated for its late entry by aggressively opening stores across formats. Reliance has over 18,774 stores across supermarkets, electronics, jewellery, and apparel space. It has also either partnered or acquired over 80 global brands, from Gap and Superdry to Balenciaga and Jimmy Choo. A diverse portfolio of brands across various segments through strategic partnerships and collaborations helps an entity like Reliance to leverage synergies and enhance retail presence, especially in malls, experts said.

“The array of brands with Reliance bouquet allows it to enter early into the project and set the tone and positioning of the mall,” said a retail leasing expert who requested not to be identified.

“This positively helps the mall to set its own positioning and future tenant mix. It also helps Reliance place their brands in most relevant zones within the mall. This will emerge as a clear differentiator in a city like Mumbai where brands are already jostling for space, which is the costliest in the country,” the person added.

(Published in Economic Times)

Reading the tea leaves: From chai to high tea

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September 2, 2022

Written by Christina Moniz

Retail chains are on an expansion spree, riding on growing demand from a young consumer cohort

Just about a month back, Wagh Bakri Tea Group, the third largest packaged tea company in India with a turnover of over `1,500 crore, opened its 15th tea lounge in Noida’s upscale DLF Mall of India.

A little over two years ago, Chaayos’ physical footprint was 75 outlets across the country. Currently, its store count is 200.

Just about a month back, Wagh Bakri Tea Group, the third largest packaged tea company in India with a turnover of over `1,500 crore, opened its 15th tea lounge in Noida’s upscale DLF Mall of India.

A little over two years ago, Chaayos’ physical footprint was 75 outlets across the country. Currently, its store count is 200.

Get the drift?

Today the humble cuppa is much bigger than an excuse for roadside tittle-tattle. The rash of tea lounges and bars have taken what used to be, at its best, a social lubricant, and turned it into a `700-crore market.

Homegrown tea café chains have been quick to cash in on the out-of-home demand from a young consumer cohort, offering snacks, groovy ambience and even free wi-fi connectivity. Chains such as Chaayos, Chai Point and Wagh Bakri’s Tea Lounge are ramping up their offerings to cater to a segment for whom coffee shops were the default hang-out zone. Up until now.

But how sustainable are they, given that 80% of the tea drinking market is unorganised? Pramod Damodaran, CEO, Wagh Bakri Tea Lounge, says brands in this segment are catering to the “need state of the consumer”, whether it is meetings,family outings, a quick rest after shopping at the mall or a quiet moment in airports, offices or hospitals. “We elevate the tea drinking experience and make it premium, almost akin to how tea drinkers in the past would enjoy their tea at fancy hotels, but we offer the experience at affordable prices,” he says. While coffee chains offer muffins and croissants with their beverages, Wagh Bakri pairs its teas with pakoras, samosas and vada pav, which resonate more with the average Indian consumer.

Growing the market

Nitin Saluja, founder, Chaayos, draws parallels with global coffee brand, Starbucks. “Before Starbucks launched in the US, there were very few good quality coffee retail outlets. In the Indian context, before chai cafes were launched, consumers could barely enjoy a good cup of tea in a hygienic retail space outside their homes,” he says.

The pandemic, too, played its part in getting consumers to choose hygienic options. That is why home delivery, which was 20% of Chaayos’ revenue prior to the pandemic, now hovers around 30-35%.

The success of chai chains is a reflection of evolving consumer preferences. Saluja says despite the presence of huge international and homegrown brands in the coffee retail segment, the category earns an annual revenue of around 1,500 crore. “In comparison, there are only 3-4 homegrown chai café players, but their combined annual revenue is around700 crore. Only chai retail chains in India can replicate the success of coffee chains in the West,” he says.

Damodaran says his chain is not competing with coffee chains but rather catering to the growing need for cafes. It is for this reason that the brand also offers coffee across its outlets. Wagh Bakri has 15 tea lounges and 10 tea kiosks (Tea World) across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi NCR but plans to ramp up its footprint in the North, West and South over the next three years.

“The industry can ensure long-term health only by capturing the value offered by out-of-home consumption in modern branded formats, packaged branded sales in modern retail and direct-to-consumer models,” sums up Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight.

Source: financialexpress