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July 9, 2026
Neethi Lisa Rojan & Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, MINT
Mumbai/Bengaluru, 8 July 2026
The collapse of the US-Iran peace deal in less than a month has rattled India’s consumer sector, reviving fears that higher oil prices and fresh supply-chain disruptions could squeeze demand just as companies were betting on a broader recovery.
The renewed uncertainty followed US President Donald Trump’s declaration on Wednesday that the peace deal with Iran was effectively over, alongside Washington’s decision to end a sanctions waiver on Iranian energy supplies. The market reaction was swift. The Nifty FMCG Index fell 2.49% on Wednesday, underperforming the broader market as all 15 constituents declined, led by Dabur India, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Consumer Products, whose shares fell 3-4% each. The benchmark Nifty50 ended 2.12% lower after renewed hostilities in West Asia pushed crude prices higher.
Executives and analysts said companies have little room to respond immediately, leaving them to closely monitor devel opments as risks to costs and consumer spending mount. “I don’t think companies can react on this kind of a short notice,” said Arvind Singhal, chairman of consulting firm The Knowledge Company. “It takes 2-6 months to make any change in your plans and strategy. I think right now the Indian FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) companies will be watching the progress of monsoon more carefully than the Strait of Hormuz.”
Even after the US-Iran peace deal took effect on 18 June, consumer companies were unlikely to have expected immediate relief, analysts said.
“While everyone hoped for a cessation in hostilities, smart management teams would work on the realistic expectation that even with a ceasefire, pent-up supply chain input costs need to be absorbed over time, and pricing plans must be factored accordingly,” Devangshu Dutta, founder and chief executive of consulting firm Third Eyesight, said.
“Given that the conflict zone is active, I don’t think there is any immediate likelihood of pricing freeze or reductions, even though demand in rural areas as well as in lower-income urban segments is likely to be hit from both sides ― earnings and expenses.”
Large consumer goods companies including Dabur, Emami and Godrej Consumer had recently told investors they remained confident about consumer demand, including in rural markets.
But the renewed rise in crude prices, coupled with erratic monsoons marked by rainfall deficit in some regions and flooding in others, threatens to complicate that outlook. Higher fuel costs could lift prices of crude-linked raw materials such as plastic packaging and ingredients used in soaps and creams, while persistent inflation could push consumers to cut discretionary apne ding and trade down even on staples.
Major consumer companies had already raised prices or reduced grammage across packaged food, beverages and personal care products in the March quarter.
“As far as the crude prices are concerned, that is probably the only variable where the government has to decide as far as pricing of crude or the petroleum in India is concerned,” Singhal said.
That comes at an awkward time for India’s largest consumer companies, including Hindustan Unilever, which had earlier this year told analysts they intended to drive growth through higher volumes rather than price increases. A renewed bout of inflation could undermine that strategy.
(Published in MINT)
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May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
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May 12, 2026
Anushka Jha & Kausar Madhyia, Afaqs
12 May 2026
On May 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, made some appeals to the citizens of India. In addition to asking Indians to re-adopt Covid-like practices of working from home and refraining from travel abroad, the prime minister also appealed to the citizenry to stop buying gold for weddings for a year.
The appeals come in response to the global energy crisis and economic instability triggered by the US-Iran war and the consequent West Asia conflict, which makes import-dependent commodities like gold especially vulnerable.
The market reaction was almost immediate. Following the Prime Minister’s appeal, jewellery stocks saw sharp declines on the BSE. According to PTI, Senco Gold fell nearly 11%, Kalyan Jewellers dropped close to 10%, and Titan Company declined around 8%, while Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri slipped over 6%.
National interest and gold monetisation
Industry leaders have responded by balancing the Prime Minister’s vision with structural solutions.
“India’s economic strength must always come before individual preferences. Hon’ble Prime Minister’s appeal regarding responsible gold consumption reflects the larger national concern of rising imports and pressure on foreign exchange reserves,” says Rajesh Rokde, chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC).
He suggests that a revitalised Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) could “mobilise idle household gold” and “convert dormant gold into productive national capital”.
“Nation First. Responsible Gold Ecosystem Next,” he adds.
Avinash Gupta, the vice chairman of GJC, emphasises the emotional and cultural connection of gold to Indian households.
“But today, the nation also faces the challenge of balancing gold demand with economic stability.” He believes the GMS can channel gold into the formal economy, “reducing imports, easing CAD pressure and strengthening India’s financial ecosystem.”
India’s cultural fabric and the market reality
According to a report by MoneyControl, India imports 90% of its gold needs, making the country as one of the largest gold importers globally.
Gold is an integral part of India’s cultural fabric. It is not only a fitting gift for various auspicious occasions but also constitutes one of the most expensive elements of the ‘great Indian weddings’. Additionally, there are specific religious days dedicated solely to the purchase of gold, such as Akshaya Tritiya and Dhanteras.
However, external pressures are already weighing on the market.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a retail management consulting firm, observes: “Jewellery retailers are already suffering from higher raw material costs, and rising gold and silver prices have driven several customers to postpone or reduce their purchases, including on significant dates such as Akshaya Tritiya.”
He notes that while wedding demand may remain strong, discretionary purchases will face a setback. “Companies will need to lean into lighter, more contemporary designs and lower caratage to sustain year-round demand.”
The potential impact of the appeal
Despite rising gold prices, approximately 700 to 800 tonnes of gold are consumed every year by Indian households, weddings, festivals, investment purchases, and rural savings, as per the same Money Control report.
Given the popularity of PM Modi, industry veterans expect a tangible shift in consumer behaviour.
“There will certainly be an impact,” says Arun Iyer, founder and creative partner at Spring Marketing Capital and former chief creative officer at Lowe Lintas, who played a significant role in the creation of Tanishq and several of its iconic advertisements.
“Given that the Prime Minister obviously has a very, very deep influence on our society, I think there will be an impact. People will think twice before buying gold.”
He further notes that while critical purchases will continue, “this quarter is expected to pose some challenges for the jewellery brands”.
Adaptation and brand strategy
According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India’s gems and jewellery market stood at Rs 7,31,255 crore in January 2025 and is projected to increase to Rs 11,18,390 crore by 2030.
To sustain this growth, players like Suvankar Sen, CEO and MD of Senco Gold Ltd, are focusing on recycling.
“Today, almost 50% of our overall business is driven through recycled gold. This not only helps consumers optimise the value of their existing gold holdings but also contributes towards reducing dependence on fresh gold imports,” he says.
From a brand perspective, Saurabh Parmar, fractional CMO, believes the strategy must shift.
“In a scenario when the head of state says something like this, the brand faces a credibility problem, not a sales problem. The play is to shift from category promotion to category trust, lean on heritage, on long-term value, and on gold’s role in Indian culture.” He advises brands not to appear opportunistic but to signal, ‘We have always been there.'”
Given the popularity of Prime Minister Modi in India, his influence is likely to affect the performance of leading jewellery brands in the next quarter. This may include major players such as Tanishq, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, and Kalyan Jewellers, among others.
(Published in Afaqs)
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December 4, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
4 December 2024
Demand for sportswear from running shoes to joggers and yoga mats slowed down for leading firms such as Puma, Adidas, Nike, Skechers and Asics, halting their sprint since the easing of the Covid-19 pandemic when they doubled their sales in two years.
Sportswear firms have reported 1-25% year-on-year increase for 2023-24, down from 35-85% increase for the previous financial year, according to the latest regulatory filings. While demand for fitness wear and sports equipment for disciplines other than cricket grew as people prioritised health with the onset of Covid-19, consumers cut back on discretionary spends across categories over the past six to eight quarters.
Experts said companies capitalised on the popularity of more casual styles in the wake of the pandemic, a trend that has subsided now although people are more health conscious than ever. A broader slowdown, especially in cities, hurt premium categories including sportswear, which are completely dominated by global players.
“Sportswear or footwear has a slower replacement cycle than apparel and lifestyle products. Also, there is a distinct slowdown as it all comes down to income growth versus inflation. So, a longer term potential still remains for the segment but there is a short-term consumption stress,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight.
With a population of 1.4 billion, India is among the fastest growing and largest international markets for footwear companies and over the years companies such as Under Armour, Asics and Skechers have expanded aggressively in the country.
Puma India managing director Karthik Balagopalan said the category has outpaced market growth with mid to high single digit growth rates even as subdued demand has lagged expectations.
“When it comes to health and fitness, consumers continue to spend on performance products and our sports-first strategy also leans towards that. Our ambition continues to grow at or be above market CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over the mid-term, and we think we are in a good place with our back-end infrastructure, our product portfolio and pipeline, BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards) readiness and our best-in-class team, who will continue to cement and retain our lead on competition,” he said.
In October, Foot Locker entered India through a long-term licensing agreement with Metro Brands, which will own and operate stores, while Nykaa Fashion will be its exclusive e-commerce partner.
However, there are challenges. In August this year, the government made it mandatory for footwear companies to obtain BIS certification for more than a dozen footwear products including sports brands. This impacted sales even last year as BIS had not issued licences to several foreign brands whose products were manufactured outside India, which in turn, forced brands to cut down on supplies.
American footwear firm Skechers said in its last earnings call that it had been growing exceptionally well in India for several years but there was a bit of an anomaly in part because of some of the regulatory changes that it had not yet fully responded to.
“We continue to work closely with both our India team and regulators to further advance our local sourcing strategy. We are seeing positive trends and remain optimistic about the progress in this important market. We see tremendous opportunity, not only in our lifestyle business, but also in performance,” Skechers chief operating officer David Weinberg told analysts.
(Published in Economic Times)
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February 21, 2024
Published in ETPrime, 21 February 2024
Around two years ago, when Delhi-based Debabrata Bhattacherjee decided to explore a new brand for casual wear, he decided to give Uniqlo a try. The 27-year-old was so impressed by the quality that he became a regular customer of the Japanese fashion brand that had set foot in India in 2019.
“What first attracted me was the convenient design of their store, which was very organised and clean. Very Japanese, to say! The shopping experience is very hassle-free and offers a lot of options. Their clothes are very comfortable and the quality is excellent,” said Bhattacherjee, a video producer. Though the brand is costlier than others, he is okay paying the premium.
Bhattacherjee is among the many Indians who have contributed to the rising sales of Uniqlo. Also known to be Asia’s biggest clothing brand, the Japanese company posted a 69% jump in sales in FY23 from FY22, with a net revenue of Rs 624.6 crore and a net profit of Rs 68.38 crore in India.
Uniqlo is among a bunch of Japanese and South Korean brands that have, in the past couple of years, been gaining more space in the lifestyle and beauty product shelves of Indians. Wacoal, MUJI, Innisfree, Sulwhasoo and Amorepacific have been witnessing a relatively quiet but consistent growth in sales in the country.
East Asian portfolio
Indian consumers are not new to the products from these countries. A popular example is automobiles: Suzuki, Hyundai, Toyota and Honda have made millions of Indians mobile. Now, fashion and lifestyle products from East Asia are also now becoming part of Indian households.
Anand Ramanathan, Partner and Leader-Consumer Products and Retail, Deloitte India, said this is because these brands have built a reputation for quality, design and durability — much like their peers in automobiles and engineering.
East Asian lifestyle and beauty brands initially had an influence in the Northeastern states, where the customers are not only ahead of the curve in fashionability but also found resonance with the look of these brands, said Devangshu Dutta, founder and CEO of management consulting firm Third Eyesight. “In due course, K-dramas and K-pop (Korean popular culture) has boosted their expansion across the country. Japan and Korea are highly developed beauty and skincare markets, with customers who are conscious both about their appearance, as well as about the products’ performance. These brands have established brand equity across markets on their quality, innovation, and product development,” he said.
Indians have been enjoying the “Korean wave” or Haalyu, which refers to the global popularity of Korean culture, music, movies, and TV dramas. Ramanathan pointed out that Korean has emerged as the most learnt language among the 13-22 age group in India. Apart from fashion, he said, the cultural impact can be seen in food and jewellery options of Indian Gen Z and millennials.
Well-travelled Indians who have been exposed to these brands find the pricing has “value” implicitly built in, Dutta added.
Companies from these countries also seem to find value in India. A 2023 survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) that collected responses from over 500 manufacturers in the island country showed that 48.6% of the companies considered India a key destination for medium-term business growth. Ramanthan cited a report by DPIIT that stated that since 2000, South Korea has invested $5.7 billion in India across various sectors. Recently, South Korea has invested $400 million in India during July 2022 to June 2023.
E-commerce is a driver
Another brand on this list is Japan-based Wacoal. The lingerie maker entered India in 2015 with its first store in Mumbai, and has posted an impressive 3X year-on-year increase over the last eight years, said Pooja Merani, COO of Wacoal India.
This was because its products have adapted designs that align with the preferences of the Indian market, demonstrating cultural sensitivity, she said. The company measures the physique of approximately 1,000 women and girls between the ages of 4 and 69 every year, said Merani. This has helped it make clothes that suit Indians well. “Prioritising fit and comfort in the offerings, and understanding the diverse body types in India, have likely contributed to customer satisfaction and loyalty,” she said.
South Korean beauty firm Amorepacific, which is the parent company of popular cosmetic brands such as Innisfree and Sulwhasoo, said they are seeing traction in India as the beauty and wellness industry is experiencing robust growth. “There is an increasing awareness and emphasis on skincare, with consumers seeking effective and high-quality products. India has a large and youthful population, and the youth are often early adopters of beauty trends. Korean skincare products, with their trendy packaging, innovative formulations, and youthful image, can resonate well with this demographic,” said Mini Sood Banerjee, Assistant Director and Head of Marketing at Amorepacific Group.
The company had last year signed an agreement with Reliance Retail to sell through its online fashion platform, Tira. Banerjee said 80% of its sales are through e-commerce. “INNISFREE has been engaging with the Indian consumer much more rapidly in the online space.”
Uniqlo attributed its success to its blend of Japanese philosophy with Indian culture — the company started selling kurtas from 2019, when it had entered India through Delhi. A spokesperson credited the brand’s success to the 13 brick-and-mortar stores in India focussing on its “LifeWear” philosophy. “It is simple, high-quality, everyday clothing with a practical sense of beauty that is ingenious in detail. This approach originates from the Japanese values of simplicity, quality and longevity — and we have seen that Indians appreciate the high level of quality of our apparel,” the spokesperson said.
Making in India
These companies have also started production in India, a sign that they find the market promising.
Wacoal started its production in India last year, and is expanding into newer segments. The Uniqlo spokesperson said the company is on track to achieve 30% domestic sourcing. “We are actively growing local suppliers to deliver quality products for our customers. For example, we now work with 17 sewing factories and 6 fabric mills in India.”
Fashion, home textiles and other home products are potentially the first categories where manufacturing within India can be explored, said Third Eyesight’s Dutta. Brands with a large global footprint and established supply chains find it difficult to shift manufacturing bases.
“To make a shift to India, a substantial volume of demand needs to be generated within the country, and brands also need to be actively looking to diversify from their existing supply bases. Fashion brands and retailers with product lines that are relatively less technical or complex, or for which the size of economically viable production base is relatively small, are already looking at manufacturing more products and greater volumes in India,” he said.
Foreign brands have to find the product-market fit to be successful in a country. India being an ethnically diverse market, the product-market fit can be dissimilar across the country. Brands can be successful only if they can address specific segments and build the business accordingly, Dutta added.
Companies like Wacoal said they are mindful of the cultural challenges. Merani pointed out how the lingerie market is predominantly unorganised and has challenges such as limited awareness about proper sizing and cultural taboos. “Overcoming traditional industry norms and promoting accurate sizing awareness remains a persistent hurdle for us. Additionally, addressing diverse body types while ensuring top-notch quality further adds complexity,” she said.
‘Affluent India’
Despite the challenges and the steep pricing, experts said these brands are becoming popular as Indians have more disposable income.
According to a recent Goldman Sachs report that corroborated data using tax filings, bank deposits, credit cards and broadband connections, the affluent Indian consumer cohort has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12% in 2019-23, compared to 1% CAGR in India’s population. Rising retail participation has lifted India market cap over 80%, it pointed out. “The largest beneficiary of rising ‘affluent India’ are categories such as leisure, jewellery, out-of-home food and healthcare, and premium brands within all categories,” it added.
The willingness of Indian customers to pay a premium price for better quality products depends on factors such as product category, brand reputation, target demographic and economic conditions, said Amorepacific’s Sood.
For Japanese brands, the shift in India from electronics and automobiles to clothing and lifestyle is driven by strategic diversification and changing consumer trends. Japanese companies are leveraging globalisation and the increasing exposure of Indian consumers to international lifestyles, said Wacoal’s Merani.
“Economic factors, such as India’s growing middle-class population and economic growth, contribute to the attractiveness of the market. Thorough market research and understanding of local preferences, along with collaborations and partnerships, enable Japanese brands to align their products with the specific demands of the Indian consumer market. Overall, this shift reflects the adaptability and strategic decision-making of Japanese brands, indicating their confidence in the potential for success in diverse sectors beyond automobiles,” she said.
The Indian market still has legs.
The COO of Wacoal India said the lingerie market, for one, would grow by a CAGR of 9.3%, especially as more young women join the workforce.
India presents a great opportunity as a strong growing market. Even domestic brands are competing for “share-of-mind, shelf-space and share-of-wallet, and some larger Indian corporates are also backing their own brands and retail formats with strong investments,” added Third Eyesight’s Dutta.
If the Japanese and Korean brands want to survive, they would need to keep innovating and adapting to consumer preference. For Indians, meanwhile, it is “ache din” when it comes to shopping.
