Shrinkflation, price hikes buzz in consumer firms as war spikes costs

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May 2, 2026

Neethi Lisa Rojan, Mint

2 May 2026, Mumbai

Fast-moving consumer goods makers are leaning on a mix of price increases, smaller pack sizes and tighter cost controls to navigate raw-material volatility triggered by the ongoing US-Iran war, while still reporting robust volume growth for the March quarter. The ongoing war blew up end February this year, disrupting global supply chains.

Executives at top firms said calibrated pricing and ‘shrinkflation’ are helping them protect margins. The trend shows staples demand have held up, but also points to a gradual pass-through of higher commodity and packaging costs to consumers as geopolitical disruptions keep input prices elevated.

At Hindustan Unilever Ltd, the strategy is already in motion. The company has implemented calibrated price hikes and adjusted grammage across products. “We are taking calibrated pricing action in the range of 2-5%,” chief financial officer Niranjan Gupta said in a post-earnings briefing on Thursday. “We use a combination of both the put-down price as well as optimizing the fill levels,” said Gupta. The management also noted that its products in the homecare segment such as soaps (Lux, Pears, Dove, etc.) and detergents (Surf Excel, Rin, etc.) will be the first to be affected by price hikes. Interestingly, this happened at a time when HUL’s volumes grew the fastest in 15 quarters.

Companies have anticipated how consumers will behave.

“In times of inflation, income uncertainty, etc. essentials such as packaged foods, biscuits, and household cleaning products tend to see trade-down behaviour rather than outright disappearance of demand,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of management consultancy, Third Eyesight. “Consumers tend to shift to smaller pack sizes or private labels, rather than abandoning categories altogether,” he adds.

India’s retail inflation rose from 2.75% in January 2026 to a 10-month high of 3.40% in March, driven largely by food prices.

That balance between pricing and demand is playing out across the sector. Nestle S.A., the parent company of the Indian entity said it saw 3.5% organic sales growth during the quarter, with RIG (real internal growth or volume growth) of 1.2% and pricing of 2.3% in the January-March quarter.

“The conflict in the Middle East will have some impact on commodity and distribution costs, and possibly on consumer behavior. But it’s too early to know the full extent of this,” chief executive officer at Nestlé S.A, Philipp Navratil said in the analyst call after the results. Its India unit, Nestlé India, reported its strongest quarterly growth in nearly a decade, led by double-digit volume expansion.

HUL reported a 21% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹2,994 crore, while Nestle India saw net profit up 27% at ₹1,110.9 crore. year-on-year to ₹1,110.9 crore in Q4 FY26. HUL has also retained its medium-term guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) at 22.5%-23.5%.

The resilience in volumes comes even as input costs surge. Prices of crude oil-linked materials, especially packaging, have risen sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. High-density polyethylene, widely used in packaging, jumped about 42% in March from the previous month.

Multinationals are already bracing for the fallout. Tide and Gillette maker Procter & Gamble, said in its quarterly earnings call that it could take roughly a $1 billion post-tax hit to its fiscal 2027 profit from surging oil prices. Still, not all inputs are moving in tandem. Prices of staples such as wheat, sugar, tea and coffee have remained relatively stable, offering some cushion. Edible oils, however, remain a concern.

Palm oil, a critical input in many FMCG products, is seeing supply shifts, as producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia divert output toward biodiesel. AWL Agribusiness, which sells Fortune oil, said in the quarterly analyst call that edible oils faced a 10% price surge in March, which has already been passed to consumers. The company expects to pass on the rise in packaging material prices also soon. The company posted a 53% jump in consolidated net profit to ₹292 crore in Q4FY26, from ₹190 crore a year earlier.

Experts expect the trend of margin-saving strategies to continue.

“Depending on the product, category and brand, we will see a mix of price hikes, shrinkflation and rationalization of SKUs (stock keeping units), and also a shift from brand-related to tactical advertising and promotional spends to boost short-term demand,” Dutta said.

Elsewhere, companies are acknowledging broad-based inflation but are continuing to push through growth. Bajaj Consumer Care reported near double-digit volume gains even as managing director Naveen Pandey noted that “nearly 100%” of its cost base is under inflation. The company plans further pricing actions alongside cost optimization. Bajaj Consumer Care’s net profit for the March quarter more than doubled to ₹63.6 crore from a year ago.

Beyond the basics

The ripple effects extend beyond staples. Fashion, lifestyle and grocery retailer Trent Ltd flagged uncertainty around supply chains and inflation, warning of potential implications for near-term demand. “Duration and intensity of disruptions in the Middle East, along with its second order effect on supply chain, commodity prices and inflation in general has potential implications for near-term demand,” the company said in its results presentation.

Meanwhile, consumer appliance maker Havells India has initiated price increases after what chairman Anil Rai Gupta described as an unprecedented escalation in input costs. “I’ve not seen this kind of a price escalation in the recent past in the recent memory,” he said in the post results analyst call.“ Calibrated price actions have been initiated, he said. Havells India reported a strong 40% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹723 crore in the March quarter.

More clarity may emerge as additional earnings roll in. Companies with higher exposure to West Asia, such as Dabur and Emami, are yet to report results and could face greater consolidated impact due to regional disruptions. “Companies such as Dabur and Emami will be more affected at the consolidated level due to issues in the MENA or Middle East and North Africa Region (6-8% revenue salience),” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services ahead of the earnings season.

For now, inventory buffers are offering temporary relief. Some companies have built raw-material stockpiles lasting up to six months, helping them absorb immediate shocks. “In our international markets, our effect will be in the raw material, practically zero to a couple of points maybe because we are well-stocked not just for this quarter, but the next quarter also. We normally carry six months inventory in international,” said Raj Pal Gandhi, whole-time director at Varun Beverages, the largest bottler of Pepsico in India, in the quarterly analyst call. This has helped the firm tide over the challenges in plastic shortage faced in March.

However, companies will now have to buy raw materials at higher prices, leaving room open for more price hikes.

(Published in MINT)

India’s D2C journey: After a rapid scale-up, why it’s now all about discipline

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February 27, 2026

Samar Srivastava, Forbes India
Feb 27, 2026

India’s young consumers are discovering the next big beauty serum, protein bar or sneaker brand not in a mall, but on Instagram reels, YouTube shorts and quick-commerce apps that promise 10-minute delivery. What began as a trickle of digital-first labels a decade ago has now become a full-blown wave. Direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands—built online, fuelled by social media and venture capital—have reshaped India’s consumer landscape and forced legacy companies to rethink everything from marketing to distribution.

India today has more than 800 active D2C brands across beauty, personal care, fashion, food, home and electronics, according to industry estimates and consulting reports. The Indian D2C market is estimated at $12–15 billion in 2025, up from under $5 billion in 2020, and growing at 25–30 percent annually. The pandemic accelerated online adoption, but the structural drivers—cheap data, digital payments and over 750 million internet users—were already in place.

Unlike traditional FMCG brands that relied on distributors and kirana stores, D2C brands such as Mamaearth, boAt, Licious and Sugar Cosmetics built their early traction online. Customer acquisition happened through performance marketing; feedback loops were immediate; product iterations were rapid.

Importantly, these brands are discovered online—but as they scale, consumers buy them both online and offline, increasingly through quick-commerce platforms such as Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart, as well as modern trade and general trade stores. The omnichannel play is now central to their growth strategy.

According to Anil Kumar, founder and chief executive of Redseer Strategy Consultants, the ecosystem is maturing in measurable ways. Brands are taking lesser time to reach ₹100 crore or ₹500 crore revenue benchmarks and, once there, mortality rates are coming down. There is also an acceptance that if a brand is not profitable in a 3–5 year timeframe, that needs to be corrected. “There is a lot of emphasis on growing profitably and not just through GMV,” he says.

Big Cheques, Bigger Exits

The D2C boom would not have been possible without capital. Between 2014 and 2022, Indian D2C startups raised over $5 billion in venture and growth funding. Peak years like 2021 alone saw more than $1.2 billion invested in the segment. Beauty, personal care and fashion accounted for nearly 50 percent of total inflows, followed by food and beverages.

Some brands scaled independently; others found strategic buyers. Among the most prominent exits:
> Hindustan Unilever acquired a majority stake in Minimalist, reportedly valuing the actives-led skincare brand at over ₹3,000 crore. For Hindustan Unilever, the annual run rate from sales of its D2C portfolio is estimated at around ₹1,000 crore, underscoring how material digital-first brands have become to its growth strategy.
> ITC Limited bought Yoga Bar for about ₹175 crore in 2023 to strengthen its health foods portfolio.
> Emami acquired a majority stake in The Man Company, expanding its digital-first play.
> Tata Consumer Products acquired Soulfull as part of its health and wellness strategy.
> Marico invested in brands such as Beardo and True Elements.

Private equity has also entered aggressively at the growth stage. ChrysCapital invested in The Man Company; L Catterton backed Sugar Cosmetics; General Atlantic invested in boAt; and Sequoia Capital India (now Peak XV Partners) was an early backer of multiple consumer brands.

Valuations were often steep. boAt was valued at over $1.2 billion at its peak. Mamaearth’s parent, Honasa Consumer, listed in 2023 at a valuation of around ₹10,000 crore. Across categories, brands crossing ₹500 crore in annual revenue began attracting buyout interest, with deal sizes ranging from ₹150 crore to over ₹3,000 crore depending on scale and profitability.

Yet exits have not always been smooth. “While it takes 7-8 years to build a brand most funds that invest in them have a timeline of 3-5 years before they need an exit,” says Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a retail consultancy. This timing mismatch can create pressure—pushing brands to scale aggressively, sometimes at the cost of margins.

Integration Pains and the Profitability Pivot

For large FMCG companies, buying D2C brands offers speed: Access to younger consumers, premium positioning and digital marketing expertise. But integration brings challenges.

Founder-led organisations operate with rapid decision cycles, test-and-learn marketing and flat hierarchies. Large corporations often work with layered approvals, structured brand calendars and rigid cost controls. Cultural friction can lead to talent exits if autonomy is curtailed too quickly.

Margins are another sticking point. In the early growth phase, many D2C brands spent 30–40 percent of revenue on digital advertising. Rising customer acquisition costs post-2021, combined with higher logistics expenses, squeezed contribution margins. As brands entered offline retail, distributor and retailer margins of 20–35 percent further compressed profitability.

Large acquirers, used to EBITDA margins of 18–25 percent in mature FMCG portfolios, often discovered that digital-first brands operated at low single-digit margins—or were loss-making at scale. Rationalising ad spends, optimising supply chains and pruning SKUs became essential.

The funding slowdown between 2022 and 2024 triggered a reset. Marketing spends were cut by as much as 25–40 percent across several startups. Growth moderated from 80–100 percent annually during peak years to 25–40 percent for more mature brands—but unit economics improved.

Quick-commerce has emerged as a structural growth lever. For categories such as personal care, snacking and health foods, these platforms now account for 10–25 percent of urban revenues for scaled brands, improving inventory turns and reducing dependence on paid digital acquisition.

The next phase of India’s D2C journey will be less about blitz scaling and more about disciplined brand building—balancing growth, profitability and exit timelines. What began as a disruption is now part of the mainstream consumer playbook. And as capital becomes more selective, only brands that combine strong gross margins, repeat purchase rates above 35–40 percent and sustainable EBITDA pathways will endure.

(Published in Forbes India)

Offline Surge and M&A Push Define Next Stage of India’s D2C Growth

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November 13, 2025

Saumyangi Yadav,Entrepreneur
Nov 13, 2025

India’s consumer landscape is undergoing a decisive shift in 2025. While D2C brands that once thrived on digital-only distribution are now aggressively building an offline footprint, legacy FMCG majors are simultaneously acquiring digital-first brands to strengthen their portfolios and tap into new consumer behaviours.

As analysts suggest, these trends signal a maturing phase for India’s D2C ecosystem, one that blends physical retail and strategic consolidation.

Offline Push Accelerates

According to a recent CBRE report, ‘India’s D2C Revolution: The New Retail Order’, D2C brands leased nearly 5.95 lakh sq ft of retail space between January and June 2025, accounting for 18 per cent of all retail leasing during this period, up sharply from 8 per cent in the first half of 2024. Fashion and apparel dominated the expansion, contributing close to 60 per cent of D2C leasing, followed by homeware and furnishings and jewellery at about 12 per cent each, while health and personal care brands accounted for roughly six per cent. The shift is equally visible in the choice of retail formats: 46 per cent of D2C leasing went to high streets, 40 per cent to malls, and the remaining to standalone stores, reflecting the category’s growing focus on visibility, trial and experiential discovery.

Experts suggest that it represents a strategic pivot to blended engagement.

As Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, notes, “India’s D2C surge is powered by digital-first consumers, tremendous improvement in seamless logistics, and low-cost market entry, supported subsequently by substantial amounts of investor capital chasing those startups that stand out from the competition. Yet, lasting success demands a more holistic view: the divide between online and offline is a business construct, not a consumer reality. The larger chunk of retail sales still happens through physical channels and, for brands that want to be mainstream, an omnichannel presence is absolutely essential.”

This also aligns with the broader market outlook. The India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), in its Indian FMCG Industry Analysis (October 2025), estimates the value of India’s D2C market at USD 80 billion in 2024, with expectations of crossing USD 100 billion in 2025. Much of this growth is being led by categories that combine frequent purchase cycles with strong digital discovery, beauty, personal care, and food and beverage segments where consumers are open to experimentation but demand authenticity, transparency, and a compelling product narrative.

“The Gen Z and millennial consumer cohorts value newness but also authenticity and unique product stories, which are best communicated in spaces that are controlled by the brand,” Dutta added, “In the launch and growth phases, this could be the brand’s digital presence including website and social media, but over time this can include pop-up stores, kiosks, shop-in-shops and even exclusive brand stores.”

CBRE’s data reflects this shift clearly, with D2C brands increasingly opting for flexible store formats and high-street locations to maximise traffic and visibility.

M&A Gains Momentum

Parallel to the offline push is a noticeable wave of consolidation. Large FMCG companies are accelerating acquisitions to capture emerging consumer niches and strengthen their digital-native capabilities.

In recent years, Hindustan Unilever has acquired Minimalist; Marico has bought Beardo, Just Herbs, True Elements, and Plix; ITC has taken over Yoga Bar; and Emami has secured full ownership of The Man Company. These deals, reported widely across business media in 2024 and 2025, point to the need for established companies to fast-track entry into high-growth, ingredient-forward, and youth-focused categories without the lead time of in-house incubation.

“Legacy FMCG companies are acquiring D2C brands to rapidly gain access to new consumer segments, product innovation, and digital-native capabilities, including direct engagement and insights. Such deals enable large companies to diversify portfolios, accelerate entry into trending segments by-passing the initial launch risks, and rejuvenate their brands with modern digital marketing expertise,” Dutta explained.

Challenges and Risks

But the acquisitions do not come without risk and challenges, analysts warned.

“However, integrating D2C operations also poses challenges, including cultural differences, the risk of stifling entrepreneurial agility, and the need to harmonise data and omnichannel strategies. The ability to nurture acquired brands without diluting their distinctive appeal will determine acquisition success,” Dutta added.

Yet even as the ecosystem expands, challenges remain. Offline stores add operational complexity, inventory planning, staffing, last-mile logistics, and real-time data integration. Still, the bottom line is that India’s D2C sector is moving into a hybrid era defined by tighter omnichannel integration, sharper product storytelling, and portfolio realignment through acquisitions.

(Published in Entrepreneur)

Emami-backed The Man Company plans offline expansion; eyes new categories

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December 23, 2021

Devika Singh, Moneycontrol

December 23, 2021

Male grooming products startup The Man Company, known for its online-first strategy, is looking at offline expansion for its next leg of growth. The company, which operates 28 exclusive brand outlets in the country, plans to launch 60-70 more stores by the end of this fiscal to gain presence across at least 100 locations.

“A lot of growth will come from the offline channel for the next one year at least, especially in Tier II and III cities where launching exclusive stores is a good way to introduce the brand to the consumer as shopping malls are weekend destinations there,” co-founder Hitesh Dhingra told Moneycontrol.

The company, backed by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Emami which holds a 48.49 percent stake in it, is also looking at introducing its products in more multi-brand outlets. The Man Company is present in 1,200 multi-brand outlets which include lifestyle stores such as Shoppers Stop, Central and Lifestyle as well as hypermarkets, supermarkets and pharmacies. The company plans to be in 2,500 multi-brand outlets by the end of financial year 2022-23.

It currently draws about 70 percent of its sales from online channels including its own direct-to-consumer (D2C) platform and online marketplaces and 30 percent from offline channels. The startup’s strategy is focused on expanding its base in Tier II cities and beyond, which account for 50-55 percent of its sales even on online marketplaces.

“Out of our 28 exclusive brand outlets, only five to six are in top 10 cities and the rest in Tier II and smaller towns. For the new store openings also, we are going to adopt a similar strategy and only 10 percent of the new outlets will be in large cities,” said Dhingra.

The offline way

Several D2C brands have been eyeing the physical retail channel as they try to scale up and tap a wider set of consumers. Brands in the women’s beauty and personal care segment such as Mamaearth, Sugar Cosmetics and Plum Goodness are expanding their presence in the offline retail format. Plum, for instance, is looking to launch 50 exclusive brand outlets in the next two years.

Male grooming startups, too, are following a similar trajectory. For instance, Bombay Shaving Company and Baeardo are launching their products in more and more offline stores.

Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of retail consultancy Third Eyesight, said it makes sense for digitally-native companies that have achieved some brand recognition to launch in offline format for the next phase of growth. Brands in the 1990s for example, he said, who wanted to establish an identity, entered new formats or channels besides the existing ones. Similarly, digitally-native brands need not restrict themselves to online platforms alone, he added.

But he pointed out that these brands will have to address challenges such as ensuring availability of their products in offline channels. “In the online segment, companies can cater to customers with limited stocks. However, in the offline channel, they need to ensure availability of products across stores,” he said.

New categories

Apart from new retail categories, The Man Company has plans to enter categories such as sexual wellness and personal appliances. It has tied up with a marketplace for the launch of personal appliances such as beard trimmers and shavers and the category will be launched exclusively on the platform. The sexual wellness products, too, will be introduced on its D2C platform and later to other marketplaces and offline stores.

“We always launch a product on our platform to test it and get consumer feedback and, based on the response, we introduce the product to the wider market,” said Dhingra.

Launched in 2015, The Man Company caters to the men’s grooming segment and claims to have developed more than 65 stock keeping units. According to Dhingra, the company which competes with Beardo, Bombay Shaving Company and Ustraa will double its sales to Rs 100 crore by the end of this financial year.

Male grooming startups have of late attracted attention from FMCG companies. Marico last year completed the acquisition of Ahmedabad-based Beardo by buying an additional 55 percent stake in the company. It had acquired an initial 45 percent stake in 2019. British consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser Group invested Rs 45 crore in Bombay Shaving in February 2021. LetsShave and Ustraa are backed by Wipro Consumer Care.

According to industry estimates, the male grooming market in India was valued at Rs 15,806 crore in 2019 and is expected to cross Rs 36,402 crore by 2025, growing at a compound annual rate of 15-14 percent. Though growth was hit by the pandemic, experts are still bullish about the segment.

(Published in Moneycontrol)