Devangshu Dutta
June 30, 2025
In every strategy meeting today, one metric is invariably mentioned: Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC). Whether you’re a well-funded corporate retailer, or raising your first angel round, or a well-established digital duopolist brand scaling Series C, CAC is one of the key performance metrics. “Real” spend that is neatly broken down by channel, optimised by funnel tweaks, scrutinised to the last rupee or dollar.
But there’s a metric we almost never hear about that could be costing brands far more in the long run.
Let’s call it Customer Forfeiture Cost (CFC), the residual lifetime value that is lost when a customer walks away from your business not because of price, competition, or even shifting needs, but because of a “burn”: a delivery missed or messed up, a refund that took weeks, an arrogant customer service call, or a product that failed spectacularly against the promise. In other words, when your brand hurts someone enough to make them walk away. Probably for ever.
It’s a paradox: brands are pumping thousands of crores into acquiring users, but they’re bleeding value at the other end. Yet, while CAC is a line item in every financial statement, CFC is invisible in management dashboards. CEOs don’t announce, “We’ve cut our forfeiture cost by 20% this quarter.”
Yet. every CXO knows it exists. The NPS scores, the social media complaints, the “never again” comments in reviews, the sinking feeling when repeat purchase rates fall.
Why CFC Matters More Than Ever
In every business, during the early stages each sale is a victory. Whether it was the retail chains that grew in the 1990s and early-2000s or the digital upstarts that came up through 2010s and 2020s, scale has been the mantra, and investors have poured money into scaling through the growing consumption of India 1 and India 2 customers.
Today customer acquisition isn’t cheap. The same person who clicked impulsively in 2020 now thinks twice before confirming payment. In this landscape, retention isn’t optional, it’s existential.
Every lost customer isn’t just a refund processed, or a cart abandoned. It’s the long tail of future repeat purchases that will never happen, negative word of mouth and brand distrust in the customer’s circle of influence, and increased future CAC due to declining organic reach.
Way back in 1967, management consultant Peter Drucker wrote in his book “The Effective Executive”: “What gets measured, gets managed”.
Today your CAC may be Rs. 500-1,000. If the average customer life time value (LTV) is Rs. 10,000, and a single burn causes churn after just one order worth Rs. 2,000, your CFC is Rs. 8,000, and that doesn’t even include reputational spillover.
Why We Don’t Measure It
Yes, CFC is hard to quantify. It’s not as easily attributable as ad spends. There’s usually no neat model telling you why someone never returned, because tech stacks aren’t typically designed to track emotional exits. And let’s face it, introspection about broken relationships is uncomfortable, even for management teams.
But that doesn’t mean it’s not real. If a customer leaves because your delivery executive messed up, or because your app crashed during checkout twice in a row, that’s on you, not the market. And in a business climate where sustainable growth is the mantra, LTV is king.
Ignoring CFC is like watching your roof leak and blaming the rain.
Toward a New Discipline
Brands and retailers must start measuring CFC, the value lost when customers disengage due to friction, mistrust, or neglect, and then start working on reducing it. This can be done by:
The Competitive Edge We’re Not Using
In a crowded space where everyone’s vying for eyeballs, trust is the true moat. Customers don’t expect perfection – they do expect accountability, authenticity, and recovery when things go wrong.
Brands that understand and act on Customer Forfeiture Costs will quietly start building a powerful edge: deeper brand loyalty, lower CAC over time thanks to referrals and repeats and greater lifetime value per user.
In other words, real, compounding value.
As the Indian brand ecosystem matures, Customer Forfeiture Cost needs to be as visible and valued as CAC. Acquisition is the invitation; experience is the relationship. Relationships, once broken, are expensive to rebuild; if they can be rebuilt at all.
In the end, growth isn’t just about who comes in. It’s about who stays, and why.
(Written by Devangshu Dutta, Founder of Third Eyesight, this was published in Financial Express on 2 July 2025)
admin
May 19, 2025
Aakriti Bansal, Medianama
May 19, 2025
Zepto has launched Zepto Atom, a paid analytics product for consumer brands. The tool offers live dashboards with minute-level updates, PIN-code level performance maps, and Zepto GPT, an in-house Natural Language Processing (NLP) assistant trained on internal data.
While Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart have not announced comparable offerings, Zepto is pitching Atom as a first-of-its-kind play in quick commerce data access.
The launch comes as Zepto gears up for a public offering. The company is in talks to sell $250 million in secondary shares to Indian investors to boost local ownership ahead of its IPO. With a $5 billion valuation and a presence in just 15 cities, Zepto is seeking new ways to expand both revenue and market influence.
A strategic product in the lead-up to IPO
Zepto’s push to monetise platform tools comes at a time when it is attempting to raise its domestic shareholder base to 50%, reportedly as part of regulatory preparation for a future IPO. CLSA, in its 2024 App-racadabra report, estimates Zepto holds 28% of India’s quick commerce market despite a limited presence, trailing Blinkit at 39%.
With Zepto Atom, the company appears to turn its data infrastructure into a service layer for brands. This raises questions about how user behaviour transforms into brand-facing insight.
Zepto’s Multi-Lever Margin Play
Zepto’s cost structure is divided into warehouse transport, dark store operations, last-mile delivery, and corporate overheads. According to CLSA’s App-racadabra report, the company has achieved measurable efficiency gains across each of these categories. For instance, long-haul warehouse transport costs fell from Rs 1.7 per order in March 2022 to Rs 0.8 in February 2024. Handling costs inside dark stores declined from Rs 11 per order in June 2023 to under Rs 10 by January 2024. Last-mile delivery expenses dropped 20% between December 2023 and February 2024, from Rs 50 to Rs 40 per order.
HDFC Securities highlights three key levers for e-commerce profitability: raising average order values via premium or bundled products, improving take rates through ads and private labels, and reducing last-mile costs through better routing. Zepto has pursued these through initiatives like Zepto Café, Relish (in-house food and meat brands), the Zepto Pass loyalty program, and now Zepto Atom—signaling a multi-pronged approach to expand margins beyond logistics.
Whether brands will act on the data that Atom delivers, remains an open question.
Granular offtake data is rarely made available to brands, whether it is by offline retailers or by online platforms; so far brands have been largely flying blind, especially when it comes to marketplaces. In that sense, Zepto’s Atom can be a huge enabler and gamechanger,” Devangshu Dutta, Founder, Third Eyesight, told MediaNama.
Not All Brands May Be Ready
Zepto Atom lets brands monitor impressions, conversions, share of voice, and customer retention in near real-time.
“While having access to real-time geographical and time-stamped sales data is potentially an absolute goldmine for any brand, how useful it is will depend much more on how ready or capable the brand is to use the analysis and make adjustments to its strategy,” said Dutta.
Brands can use Zepto GPT, the NLP assistant embedded in Atom, to query platform data conversationally—for instance, to identify under-indexed Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) in a specific PIN code or analyse what’s driving category sales. However, it remains unclear how brands interpret or act on these insights in practice.
The company has not disclosed Atom’s pricing model. It also hasn’t confirmed whether access will be open to all brands or restricted to high-volume partners. These details will likely determine adoption.
How Atom Fits into the Margin Strategy
Zepto Atom’s real-time sales metrics, SKU-level performance data, and customer retention patterns align closely with the margin levers identified by HDFC Securities. By providing granular insights, Atom enables brands to fine-tune pricing, reposition products, and run targeted campaigns, potentially increasing order values, improving take rates, and optimizing delivery routes. Such adjustments could boost volumes and conversions, benefiting Zepto through higher commissions and ad revenues.
“For Zepto it is certainly a differentiator and could be a driver for additional revenue not just in terms of the subscription fees that they would charge but the incremental impact it could make on the brand partners’ sales and, by extension, on Zepto’s own overall fees/revenues,” said Dutta.
Still, widespread adoption may depend on how well Zepto supports brand onboarding and data literacy. “It may make sense for Zepto to even assist brand-side personnel in understanding how best to use the new tools and also help them create tangible operational changes on their side using the insights.”
Search behaviour and profiling concerns remain unresolved
Earlier this month, Zepto used search behaviour to curate mood-specific product categories such as “Crampy” and “Hangry,” in response to searches related to premenstrual syndrome (PMS)—a recurring condition affecting many women before menstruation. Critics told MediaNama that this kind of emotional profiling could occur without user awareness or consent.
Zepto’s privacy policy states that it collects lifestyle, health, and behavioural data for personalisation and internal analysis. However, the company does not explain whether it stores inferred data, shares it with brands, or applies it to pricing and promotions.
Whether Atom makes any of this data visible to brands remains unclear.
Why This Matters
Zepto Atom signals a shift in how quick commerce platforms are looking to generate value—not just from delivery, but from the data their ecosystems produce. With tools like real-time dashboards and search-linked behavioural insights, Zepto is turning user interactions into assets for brand partnerships.
The move raises larger questions about where platform growth is coming from. Is the business of quick commerce becoming the business of behavioural data? As brands gain new visibility through Atom, the balance between consumer experience and commercial analytics becomes harder to separate.
MediaNama has reached out to Zepto with these questions:
What specific types of consumer behaviour and purchase data are made available to brands through Atom?
Does Zepto Atom include inferred metrics such as user intent, repeat behaviour, or emotional tagging in its brand-facing dashboard?
Are brands shown real-time access to individual-level trends, or only aggregated cohort-level insights?
Are users informed that their platform activity may be used to generate commercial insights for brands?
Can users opt out of this data being shared with third parties via Atom?As of publication, Zepto has not responded. We will update the story when we receive a response.
(Published in Medianama)
admin
May 5, 2025
Mint, 5 May 2026
Priyamvada C., Sneha Shah
Urban India’s pet parents are driving a wave of investor interest in the pet care space. A clutch of startups such as Heads Up For Tails, Supertails, and Vetic are now in fundraising talks amid rising demand for premium products and services
While Supertails looks to raise about ₹200 crore by the end of this year, Heads Up For Tails is eyeing an investment from domestic investment firm 360 One Asset over the next few months, according to mul tiple people familiar with the matter.
Vetic, a tech-enabled chain of pet clinics, is looking to raise a sizeable round and has begun discussions with investors, they said, adding that some of these transactions may see existing investors part exit their stake.
Supertails and Vetic did not immediately respond to Mint’s requests for a comment. While 360 One declined to comment, Heads Up For Tails’ founder Rashi Narang denied the development.
Investor interest in pet care surged in the years following the pandemic, driven by a wave of new pet adoptions and rising disposable incomes. In 2023, pet care startups raised a record $66.3 million across 16 rounds, led by one major transaction ― Drool’s $60 million fundraise.
While 2023 saw a funding spike driven by Drool’s large deal, overall funding activity in 2024 was more broad-based, with fundraising at $17.9 million spanning 13 rounds, as per Tracxn.
“Pet ownership in India is estimated to be less than 10% of overall households, but growing at a rapid pace with rising incomes, especially among urban consumers. In developed economies, pet ownership can exceed three in four households, and that headroom for growth is reflected among the upper income segments in India,” said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of Third Eyesight, a management consulting firm.
He added that urban couples and singles in many cases are even opting to become “pet parents” instead of having children.
Platforms such as Supertails, Drools and Heads Up For Tails have been the big beneficiaries of this shift. Drools raised $60 million from LVMH-backed private equity firm L Catterton in 2023, while Supertails raised $15 million led by RPSG Capital Ventures in February last year.
Similarly, Supertails, which is in talks to acquire Blue 7 Vets, a multi speciality veterinary clinic, as part of its strategy to expand offline, will also raise capital to fund the acquisition of new customers, investments in technology, and the expansion of healthcare services, including Super-tails Pharmacy and build an omni-channel experience for consumers.
The company raised about $15 million in its series B funding round last year led by RPSG Capital Ventures and existing investors Fireside Ventures, Saama Capital, DSG Consumer Partners and Sauce VC.
(Published in Mint)
admin
February 23, 2025
Chitra Narayanan, BusinessLine
New Delhi, 23 February 2025
India’s formidable array of craft traditions got full play at the just concluded Bharat Tex 2025, the mega textile trade show in New Delhi that showcased the best of Indian weaves to the world. But if there was one theme that dominated this year’s textile extravaganza, aimed at generating more exports, it was the focus on zero-waste fashions and upcycling. Everywhere the eye could see were standees and gigantic posters pushing the message of conscious consumption and sustainability — be it regenerative cotton, innovative models of textile waste collection, or eco-friendly fibres.
Taking centre stage at one of the halls at Bharat Mandapam, the venue, was a section that showcased age-old traditional arts like rafugari (creative darning or artistic mending), patchwork quilts and toys, and chindi durries (the art of weaving rugs and carpets with waste).
Juxtaposed against these ethnic ways of upcycling waste were the modern works of startups that rose to the textile ministry’s grand innovation challenge to work with discarded materials. From microbial dyes that are non-polluting to flowing fashionable lehengas created out of textile waste, the startups showed that a lot can be done in this area. The ministry had challenges in three more segments — jute, silk and wool.
Some takeaways from a walk-through of the textile trade show:
Closing the loop
The fashion and textile industry generates enormous waste. How to cut down on this was a subject of much deliberation and showcases. There were a lot of good ideas on display, showing that a fair amount of work has been done with fibres (bamboo, banana, flax), as well as creativity and ingenuity in weaves and finished garments.
As Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive of the consultancy Third Eyesight, points out, due credit must be given for the good work going into generating solutions that will reduce waste, be it textiles that are reprocessed and reused as yarn, or refashioned garments or reloved apparel. But, as he adds, on the other hand we have brands that are constantly looking to grow their business and there is a race to the bottom in terms of price. The relaunch of fast fashion retailer Shein in India is sending conflicting signals. “The basic engine is pumping out more and more products, and that has to be tackled,” he says, pointing to the competing forces at work.
The source of hope, he says, is the fact that the young are a bit more conservative about how they consume and what they consume.
Sandip Ghose, CEO of MP Birla Group, which has one of the oldest jute companies in India, was among the visitors at Bharat Tex. “As an industry insider, what I found good at Bharat Tex was that quite a bit of research seems to be on, both for finished fabric and for weaving. There was a lot of work on making jute look aesthetic. There were some vanity projects like tea leaves packed in jute bags. But the challenge is in two areas — commercialisation, and scaling up of these ideas,” he says.
He rues that the jute sector has not taken advantage of the production-linked incentive scheme at a time when the world is looking for eco-friendly and biodegradable textiles. “A tripartite partnership between the Centre (Niti Aayog and textile ministry), State government, and industry would address the issue of industry’s dependence on subsidies, labour issues and exports,” he says, adding that if India is looking at textiles as a major export area, jute is an option that has been missed.
Spinning into luxury
A clear trend evident from a tour of some of the apparel and home textile pavilions is the move towards premiumisation, similar to what is visible in other sectors, noticeably FMCG.
Talking to the manufacturers, especially those focused on the domestic market, the story one heard was that consumption had slowed in the mass segment, but was reassuringly strong in the premium segment.
Several players were also moving into the luxury and uber luxury segments. Both myTrident and Welspun had striking luxury collections.
Another trend visible in the home textiles section was the use of celebrity designers — myTrident’s eye-catching collection by resort-wear designers Shivan-Narresh; and Welspun’s beautiful sets from Kate Shand and Payal Singhal.
“When the economy suffers, it is the poor and middle class who cut down. There is no pressure to reduce consumption at the upper levels, and companies will try to tap into demand that is recession-proof,” says Dutta, explaining the push towards luxury by textile manufacturers.
New trade routes?
Export houses seemed reasonably happy with the buyer interest. Some mentioned that it was interesting to see buyers from Russia at the fair. However, for those supplying to US entities and Western Europe, the buyer interest from Russia may not translate into deals, given the risk of sanctions they could face.
To sum up, it was a fairly good showcase of India’s textile prowess to the world, but whether it will ring in more export orders is debatable as many of the problems and challenges the sector faces were swept under the carpet.
(Published in BusinessLine)
admin
December 14, 2024
Sagar Malviya, Economic Times
Mumbai, 14 December 2024
Fast fashion was on a slow lane in the last fiscal year. Sales growth slowed for top retailers and fast fashion brands, show the latest regulatory filings of Marks & Spencer, Zara, H&M, Levi’s, Lifestyle, Uniqlo, Benetton and Celio. The bottom line too had taken a hit, with most brands posting lower profits in the fiscal year ended March 31. Sales growth of H&M and Zara fell from 40% in FY23 to 11% and 8% in FY24, show the filings with the Registrar of Companies. Levi’s growth slowed to 4% from 54% in FY23, while that of Uniqlo halved to 31% from 60%.
The current year is not looking good either, as sticky inflation and stagnant income weigh on consumer spending on discretionary products, say experts.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, said the job market has been under pressure and slower income growth for urban consumer impacted demand, a trend likely to continue even during FY25.
“There is a visible slowdown led by the urban middle class who buy branded products. These brands have been targeting young upwardly mobile consumers, who are tightening the purse strings due to the current economic circumstances of hiring slack and fewer jobs,” said Dutta. “The situation is not hunky-dory at all, and this will continue over the next few quarters.”
Being the world’s most populous country, India is an attractive market for apparel brands, especially with youngsters increasingly embracing western-style clothing. But most international and premium brands have been competing for a relatively narrow slice of the population pie in large urban centres.
Over the past few years, top global apparel and fast fashion brands struck a strong chord with young customers, racking up sales growth of between 40% and 60% in FY23, bucking the trend in a market where the overall demand for discretionary products started slowing down. This has reversed now.
Consumers started reducing non-essential spending, such as on apparel, lifestyle products, electronics and dining out since early last year due to high inflation, increase in interest rates, job losses in sectors like startups and IT, and an overall slowdown in the economy.
According to the Retailers Association of India (RAI), sales growth in organised retail segments such as apparel, footwear, beauty and quick service restaurants halved to 9% last year and slowed further to about 5% in the first six months in the current fiscal year. This slowdown came after a surge in spending across segments-from clothes to cars-in the post-pandemic period, triggered by revenge shopping.
“The base post-pandemic was extremely high, and that kind of growth is not sustainable as there is nothing spectacular in economy to drive demand,” said Kumar Rajagopalan, chief executive officer at the RAI that represents organised retailers. “Our bet was on the festive and wedding season, but we will have to wait and watch until next year for the performance numbers,” he said.
(Published in Economic Times)