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February 14, 2026
This episode of theUpStreamlife is a freewheeling conversation between Vishal Krishna and Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, with insights into the growth of modern retail and consumption in India, brand building and M&A, the balance of power between brands and retailers/platforms, sustainability vs growth and many other aspects, and is well-suited for founders and teams who want to be building for the long run in India.
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February 11, 2026
Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, Mint
Bengaluru, 11 February 2026
Sales of winter wear were underwhelming for the second year in a row as an unusually delayed and milder winter disrupted demand for heavy winter wear, particularly in north and west India, executives at two of India’s top clothing retailers said. Initial optimism for a bumper season this year compounded the disappointment for retailers.
While early signs of a La Niña—a weather pattern typically known for bringing freezing temperatures to India—triggered some early buying in the previous quarter, the season remained unusually mild, leaving stores with a surplus of winter clothing. Excess rainfall and cyclonic activity during the festive period in parts of eastern and southern India further weighed on seasonal buying, compounding the pressure on winter sales which are typically front-loaded.
This slump is particularly painful because winter sales are the industry’s largest annual driver. These months coincide with India’s massive wedding season, when spending peaks. Together, they account for roughly 20% of total yearly revenue for apparel companies, according to industry estimates. India’s apparel market was estimated to be worth more than ₹1.9 trillion in FY25, of which 41% was organised, credit ratings firm CareEdge said in January 2026.
V-Mart: margin over volume
Lalit Agarwal, managing director of V-Mart Retail, said, “Northern India saw a delayed or milder winter initially, leading to dispersed demand for heavy winter wear. Winter demand was definitely delayed a little bit—it didn’t get lost, but it was erratic.” He added that while festive demand held up, “demand visibility was uncertain, particularly in winter-led categories, and we consciously chose to protect margins rather than chase volumes.”
V-Mart’s revenue grew a little over 10% year-on-year to ₹1,126.4 crore in Q3 from ₹1,023.7 crore a year earlier and ₹889.05 crore in the third quarter of FY24, but this growth was largely driven by wedding and festive-season clothing, executives at the company said.
Anand Agarwal, chief financial officer of V-Mart Retail, said despite forecasts of a strong, early winter, “peak winters were delayed across North and West India, leading to a lull post-Diwali.” He added, “While the festive period went off reasonably well, winter demand did not pan out as anticipated,” attributing the softer sales to fewer peak winter days and unusually warmer temperatures.
Despite the delayed demand, the company managed to avoid a build-up of unsold inventory during the quarter. “Inventory health remained strong despite the delayed winter, and in some categories we were even short of inventory,” said Anand Agarwal, indicating that the eventual dip in temperatures led to a sudden pick-up in demand in select winter categories rather than excess stock.
Winter-led assortments continue to account for a sizeable share of the company’s quarterly sales, underscoring its sensitivity to weather patterns. “Winter and pre-winter categories accounted for about 40-45% of the overall mix during the quarter, and this share rose to over 60% during peak winter weeks in December,” said Agarwal during the third-quarter earnings call. The higher share of winter wear sales during peak weeks helped cushion margins, even as volumes remained below expectations. Lalit Agarwal said the company refrained from aggressive discounting amid uncertain demand. “Higher full-price sell-through during the winter quarter supported margins, as we did not undertake aggressive discounting,” he said.
Vishal Mega Mart: the late recovery
Gunender Kapur, managing director and chief executive officer of rival Vishal Mega Mart, said delayed winters usually force retailers to push promotions to ensure that they don’t carry forward all that merchandise, because the next opportunity to sell it would be the following year.
Despite this, the company’s performance held up, he said, highlighting that winter sales achieved robust double-digit same-store growth for the entire season and the full quarter, effectively overcoming the sluggish demand during December. Kapur noted that demand for winter clothing increased significantly in January, adding, “Winter merchandise is still selling well, both in our stores and in other stores, we believe.”
Vishal Mega Mart reported revenue growth of about 17% to ₹3,670.3 crore in Q3 FY26 from ₹3,135.9 crore in Q3 FY25 and ₹2,623.5 crore in Q3 FY24, largely on the back of wedding and festive-season demand.
Kapur said the company was unsure whether there would be significant unsold winter merchandise at the end of the season, adding that maintaining pricing discipline helped protect profit margins. “Merchandise that sells in December typically fetches a higher price than January merchandise for winter because sales often begin by late December or early January,” he said. “In our case, there was no problem. We achieved same-store sales growth of over 10%, even with the winter merchandise we purchased for the autumn-winter season.”
V2 Retail: the outlier
In contrast, V2 Retail recorded strong performance in the third quarter, largely driven by winter wear. Revenue surged nearly 60% year-on-year to ₹929.2 crore in Q3 from ₹590.9 crore a year earlier. This is perhaps because V-Mart and Vishal Mega Mart are more concentrated in north and central India, where winter demand was more uneven this season, while V2 has a stronger presence in eastern and north-eastern markets, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam.
Managing director Akash Agarwal said the early onset of winter led to a “very good season” for the company. He noted that winter garments typically command a much higher average selling price (ASP) than summer products, which resulted in a visible bump in average bill value during the third quarter, led by higher sales of jackets and sweaters. Agarwal said this high-ASP, high-margin category accounted for the bulk of Q3 sales and was a key driver of the company’s same-store sales growth.
A worsening problem?
Two straight years of sluggish sales because of erratic winters highlight broader challenges around climate change for apparel retailers, which peg their inventory based on weather patterns and demand.
“Seasons have always been inherently unpredictable, and retailers have never been able to forecast with certainty how cold or warm a winter will be or how long it will last,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a consulting firm. However, he said that the challenge has intensified over the past 15-20 years as apparel businesses have scaled up and expanded their store footprints nationwide, stretching product development and supply chains over several months.
“No matter how hard you work on the plan, your forecast will always be wrong. You will either overshoot or undershoot,” Dutta said, adding that this leaves retailers grappling with either shortages or excess stock. Winterwear, he said, is particularly vulnerable because it has a higher value per unit, a much shorter selling window, and a smaller market, factors which together create a “humongous problem” for retailers.
Data from a World Meteorological Organisation report published on 16 January showed that 2025 was among the three warmest years on record worldwide, continuing a decade-long streak of exceptional heat despite the cooling La Niña phase. This is a clear sign that background warming from greenhouse gases is overwhelming natural variability, the report said. It suggested that climate change will intensify seasonal shifts and extreme weather in the years and decades ahead, making industries tied to seasonal patterns, such as winter apparel, increasingly vulnerable to unpredictable weather swings and weaker cold spells.
(Published in Mint)
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May 23, 2025
By Kunal Purohit and Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World
Mumbai, India, 23 May 2025
Online retail continues to elude India’s richest man.
The Shein India app, launched by Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Retail in partnership with the Chinese fast-fashion giant, has struggled to gain traction in a market where Amazon and Walmart have been fighting neck-to-neck for nearly a decade. Downloads for Shein India nosedived from 50,000 a day shortly after its launch in early February to 3,311 in early April, according to AppMagic, a U.S.-based app performance tracker.
In April, when U.S. tariffs hit China, the app saw renewed interest as it was in the news, but experts are unclear on whether this growth is sustainable.
“Unlike earlier times, now … [the] market is saturated with multiple options and offers, and user interest can quickly dwindle,” Yugal Joshi, partner at global research firm Everest Group, told Rest of World.
Kushal Bhatnagar of Indian consulting firm Redseer, however, sees the late-April spike as a healthy sign, given that Reliance has yet to run paid marketing campaigns for Shein.
Reliance Retail declined to respond to Rest of World’s queries about its partnership with Shein.
Reliance launched Shein for India five years after the original Shein app was banned in the country over border tensions with China. But the Shein that has returned is entirely separate from Shein’s global platform: Rather than selling made-in-China clothes and accessories directly to consumers, Shein now operates as a technology partner, while Reliance Retail handles the heavy lifting — from sourcing and manufacturing to distribution. All consumer data is managed by the Indian company.
The partnership is part of Ambani’s broader effort to overhaul his retail business, whose valuation fell to $50 billion in 2025 from $125 billion in 2022. Although the company has made a push into digital platforms like JioMart, Ajio, and most recently Shein India, the bulk of its retail revenue still comes from its 18,000 physical stores.
Lagging behind Amazon and Walmart-backed Flipkart, which together control nearly 60% of India’s e-commerce market, Reliance has spent years trying to break into the sector. Between 2020 and 2025, Ambani’s group acquired majority stakes in companies spanning digital services, online pharmaceuticals, and quick commerce. But the investments have yet to position Reliance as a serious challenger to Amazon and Flipkart.
Analysts say the Indian behemoth hopes to leverage Shein’s artificial intelligence-powered trendspotting and automated inventory systems to pursue an ambitious goal: capturing a major share of India’s e-commerce market, projected to hit $345 billion by 2030.
According to Kaustav Sengupta, director of insights at VisionNxt, an Indian government-funded initiative that uses AI to forecast fashion trends, such a model is likely to make good use of Reliance’s humongous customer data sets: more than 476 million subscribers for its Jio telecom brand, 300 million users for e-commerce platform JioMart, and 452 million subscribers for its news and entertainment portfolio, consisting of 63 channels, a streaming service, and digital news outlets.
“With these data points, Reliance wants to now sell fashion products, so all it needs is a system where it can feed all these data points,” Sengupta told Rest of World. He said the model would be able to predict best-selling products and suggest the right prices for them.
The original Shein app uses AI-driven models for intelligent warehousing and to spot customer trends before manufacturing a new product. It scales the manufacturing up or tweaks the designs based on the feedback. At any given time, the Shein website has a catalogue of more than 600,000 items. Its Indian iteration does not match up, according to reviews on the Google Play store. Several customer reviews for Reliance’s Shein app are critical of higher prices and reduced options. The app’s rating hovered at 2 out of 5 until February; in May, it climbed to 4.4, but reviews were still a mixed bag.
Reviews of the Indian app highlight the disparity with Shein’s global version, criticizing higher prices and a reduced selection of categories and styles.
As of April 25, Reliance Retail said only 12,000 products were live on Shein India, a stark contrast to the 600,000 items available on Shein’s global platforms. While Shein is reportedly set to debut on the London Stock Exchange this year, Ambani’s years-old promise to take Reliance Retail public remains unfulfilled.
Reliance Retail, which accounts for around 30% of the conglomerate’s overall business, is facing a slowdown in annual growth. Its sales rose just 7.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2025, down from 17.8% the previous year. Meanwhile, shares of rival Tata Group’s retail and fashion arm, Trent, have soared by 133%.
“Reliance would have looked at reviving that momentum and riding on it, while for Shein, adding India back on its portfolio of markets could be a plus point before its proposed public listing,” Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a brand management consultancy that has worked with various global e-commerce brands including Ikea, told Rest of World.
A Reliance Retail official privy to information about its fast fashion expansion plans told Rest of World the partnership with Shein also hinges on global manufacturing ambitions as the Chinese company is trying to “source its products from other countries like India” to meet the “additional demand that is coming from newer markets.” Reliance Retail has tapped a network of small and midsize Indian manufacturers to locally source products, and its subsidiary Nextgen Fast Fashion Limited is leading the charge. “We need to first scale up our domestic manufacturing, before our partnership starts manufacturing for global markets. Let us see how that goes, first,” the official said, requesting anonymity as he is not authorized to share this information publicly.
India’s Gen Z population is at 377 million and counting, and their spending power is set to surpass $2 trillion by 2035, according to a 2024 report by Boston Consulting Group. Every fast-fashion retailer wants to capture this market, but it “is very new even for Reliance,” Rimjim Deka, founder of Indian fast-fashion platform Littlebox, told Rest of World.
Deka said smaller brands like hers “just see [a trend] and implement it,” which could take a large conglomerate months to do, by which time the trend may have lost relevance.
Reliance’s previous attempts to attract young shoppers with clothing brands like Foundry and Yousta failed to find much success. Anandita Bhuyan, who works in trend forecasting and product creation for fast-fashion clients like H&M and Myntra, told Rest of World the company has struggled to effectively leverage consumer data and target India’s youth.
According to the Reliance Retail official, the company is confident that if “there are 10 existing brands, the 11th brand will also get picked up as long as there is value and there is fashion.”
“Shein already has a recall among the youth. It gives us yet another brand in our portfolio through which we can cater to the youth,” the official said.
Shein was built in China on the back of more than 5,400 micro manufacturers — a scattered and loosely organized network of small and midsize factories.
In January this year, on a visit to China, Deka met with manufacturers working for Shein and Temu. On the outskirts of Guangzhou, Deka saw factories set up in areas that appeared residential, with “women sitting inside houses” making clothes.
“The tech is built in a way that somebody sitting there is able to see that, okay, next 15 days or next one month, how much I should be making … that is the kind of integration they have done,” Deka said.
Deka told Rest of World this model is easier to replicate at a smaller scale. “Me, coming from [the] supply chain industry, I understand that it is much easier for a brand like us because we are at a very smaller scale. We can still go to those people, we can still build it in a very unorganized way and then pull it off,” she said. Her company’s annual net revenue is 750 million Indian rupees ($8.6 million).
“[But] somebody like Reliance, they just cannot go haphazard here. … It has to be always organized,” Deka said.
Shein moved its headquarters to Singapore sometime between late 2021 and early 2022, a strategic departure to distance itself from its Chinese origins and facilitate hassle-free international expansion amid the U.S.-China trade war.
India is part of Shein’s wider strategy to diversify its supply chain — one that also includes a newly leased warehouse near Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, and efforts to establish alternative manufacturing hubs in Brazil and Turkey.
But in India, Reliance needs Shein as much as Shein needs Reliance for its global pivot. According to Bloomberg, Reliance Retail is focusing on creating leaner operations to weather a wider consumption slump in the Indian economy.
“It remains to be seen whether the Reliance-Shein combine can deliver on the brand’s promise with a wide range of products, fast and on-trend,” Dutta said. “In the years that Shein has been absent, the Indian market has evolved further, competition has intensified, and past goodwill is not enough to provide sales momentum.”
Kunal Purohit is a freelance journalist based in Mumbai, India.
Ananya Bhattacharya is a reporter for Rest of World covering South Asia’s tech scene. She is based in Mumbai, India.
(Published in Rest of World)
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March 27, 2019
“Fashion is a zombie business. It is dead and it doesn’t know it yet,” says Devangshu Dutta, Founder of Third Eyesight, a specialist management consulting firm.
This is a must-watch excerpt from a presentation and panel discussion anchored by Devangshu Dutta on 27 March 2019 at the India Fashion Forum, in Mumbai.
The challenge he presents is simple: create a new business model for the fashion sector.
Devangshu Dutta
July 22, 2011
The apparel retail sector worldwide thrives on change, on account of fashion as well as season.
In India, for most of the country, weather changes are less extreme, so seasonal change is not a major driver of changeover of wardrobe. Also, more modest incomes reduce the customer’s willingness to buy new clothes frequently.
We believe pricing remains a critical challenge and a barrier to growth. About 5 years ago, Third Eyesight had evaluated the pricing of various brands in the context of the average incomes of their stated target customer group. For a like-to-like comparison with average pricing in Europe, we came to the conclusion that branded merchandise in India should be priced 30-50% lower than it was currently. And this is true not just of international brands that are present in India, but Indian-based companies as well. (In fact, most international brands end up targeting a customer segment in India that is more premium than they would in their home markets.)
Of course, with growing incomes and increasing exposure to fashion trends promoted through various media, larger numbers of Indian consumers are opting to buy more, and more frequently as well. But one only has to look at the share of marked-down product, promotions and end-of-season sales to know that the Indian consumer, by and large, believes that the in-season product is overpriced.
Brands that overestimate the growth possibilities add to the problem by over-ordering – these unjustified expectations are littered across the stores at the end of each season, with big red “Sale” and “Discounted” signs. When it comes to a game of nerves, the Indian consumer has a far stronger ability to hold on to her wallet, than a brand’s ability to hold on to the price line. Most consumers are quite prepared to wait a few extra weeks, rather than buying the product as soon as it hits the shelf.
Part of the problem, at the brands’ end, could be some inflexible costs. The three big productivity issues, in my mind, are: real estate, people and advertising.
Indian retail real estate is definitely among the most expensive in the world, when viewed in the context of sales that can be expected per square foot. Similarly, sales per employee rupee could also be vastly better than they are currently. And lastly, many Indian apparel brands could possibly do better to reallocate at least part of their advertising budget to developing better product and training their sales staff; no amount of loud celebrity endorsement can compensate for disinterested automatons showing bad products at the store.
Technology can certainly be leveraged better at every step of the operation, from design through supply chain, from planogram and merchandise planning to post-sale analytics.
Also, some of the more “modern” operations are, unfortunately, modelled on business processes and merchandise calendars that are more suited to the western retail environment of the 1980s than on best-practice as needed in the Indian retail environment of 2011! The “organised” apparel brands are weighed down by too many reviews, too many batch processes, too little merchant entrepreneurship. There is far too much time and resource wasted at each stage. Decisions are deliberately bottle-necked, under the label of “organisation” and “process-orientation”. The excitement is taken out of fashion; products become “normalised”, safe, boring which the consumer doesn’t really want! Shipments get delayed, missing the peaks of the season. And added cost ends in a price which the customer doesn’t want to pay.
The Indian apparel industry certainly needs a transformation.
Whether this will happen through a rapid shakedown or a more gradual process over the next 10-15 years, whether it will be driven by large international multi-brand retailers when they are allowed to invest directly in the country or by domestic companies, I do believe the industry will see significant shifts in the coming years.
