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May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
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May 12, 2026
Anushka Jha & Kausar Madhyia, Afaqs
12 May 2026
On May 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, made some appeals to the citizens of India. In addition to asking Indians to re-adopt Covid-like practices of working from home and refraining from travel abroad, the prime minister also appealed to the citizenry to stop buying gold for weddings for a year.
The appeals come in response to the global energy crisis and economic instability triggered by the US-Iran war and the consequent West Asia conflict, which makes import-dependent commodities like gold especially vulnerable.
The market reaction was almost immediate. Following the Prime Minister’s appeal, jewellery stocks saw sharp declines on the BSE. According to PTI, Senco Gold fell nearly 11%, Kalyan Jewellers dropped close to 10%, and Titan Company declined around 8%, while Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri slipped over 6%.
National interest and gold monetisation
Industry leaders have responded by balancing the Prime Minister’s vision with structural solutions.
“India’s economic strength must always come before individual preferences. Hon’ble Prime Minister’s appeal regarding responsible gold consumption reflects the larger national concern of rising imports and pressure on foreign exchange reserves,” says Rajesh Rokde, chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC).
He suggests that a revitalised Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) could “mobilise idle household gold” and “convert dormant gold into productive national capital”.
“Nation First. Responsible Gold Ecosystem Next,” he adds.
Avinash Gupta, the vice chairman of GJC, emphasises the emotional and cultural connection of gold to Indian households.
“But today, the nation also faces the challenge of balancing gold demand with economic stability.” He believes the GMS can channel gold into the formal economy, “reducing imports, easing CAD pressure and strengthening India’s financial ecosystem.”
India’s cultural fabric and the market reality
According to a report by MoneyControl, India imports 90% of its gold needs, making the country as one of the largest gold importers globally.
Gold is an integral part of India’s cultural fabric. It is not only a fitting gift for various auspicious occasions but also constitutes one of the most expensive elements of the ‘great Indian weddings’. Additionally, there are specific religious days dedicated solely to the purchase of gold, such as Akshaya Tritiya and Dhanteras.
However, external pressures are already weighing on the market.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a retail management consulting firm, observes: “Jewellery retailers are already suffering from higher raw material costs, and rising gold and silver prices have driven several customers to postpone or reduce their purchases, including on significant dates such as Akshaya Tritiya.”
He notes that while wedding demand may remain strong, discretionary purchases will face a setback. “Companies will need to lean into lighter, more contemporary designs and lower caratage to sustain year-round demand.”
The potential impact of the appeal
Despite rising gold prices, approximately 700 to 800 tonnes of gold are consumed every year by Indian households, weddings, festivals, investment purchases, and rural savings, as per the same Money Control report.
Given the popularity of PM Modi, industry veterans expect a tangible shift in consumer behaviour.
“There will certainly be an impact,” says Arun Iyer, founder and creative partner at Spring Marketing Capital and former chief creative officer at Lowe Lintas, who played a significant role in the creation of Tanishq and several of its iconic advertisements.
“Given that the Prime Minister obviously has a very, very deep influence on our society, I think there will be an impact. People will think twice before buying gold.”
He further notes that while critical purchases will continue, “this quarter is expected to pose some challenges for the jewellery brands”.
Adaptation and brand strategy
According to the India Brand Equity Foundation, India’s gems and jewellery market stood at Rs 7,31,255 crore in January 2025 and is projected to increase to Rs 11,18,390 crore by 2030.
To sustain this growth, players like Suvankar Sen, CEO and MD of Senco Gold Ltd, are focusing on recycling.
“Today, almost 50% of our overall business is driven through recycled gold. This not only helps consumers optimise the value of their existing gold holdings but also contributes towards reducing dependence on fresh gold imports,” he says.
From a brand perspective, Saurabh Parmar, fractional CMO, believes the strategy must shift.
“In a scenario when the head of state says something like this, the brand faces a credibility problem, not a sales problem. The play is to shift from category promotion to category trust, lean on heritage, on long-term value, and on gold’s role in Indian culture.” He advises brands not to appear opportunistic but to signal, ‘We have always been there.'”
Given the popularity of Prime Minister Modi in India, his influence is likely to affect the performance of leading jewellery brands in the next quarter. This may include major players such as Tanishq, Malabar Gold & Diamonds, and Kalyan Jewellers, among others.
(Published in Afaqs)
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May 9, 2026
Writankar Mukherjee, Economic Times
Kolkata, 9 May 2026
India’s top retail chains including Reliance Retail, DMart, Trent, Titan Company, Jubilant FoodWorks, and V-Mart Retail opened the highest number of stores in three years in FY26, seeking to capitalise on a demand recovery and a clean-up of unviable outlets added during the post-Covid revenge-spending period.
Entry into smaller towns and cities where many consumers continue to prefer shopping at physical stores over online is also influencing the expansion plans.
An ET study of the 10 largest listed retailers showed they added 25% more stores in the last fiscal year compared to FY25. Additions are on a net basis after accounting for loss-making outlet closures.
Collectively, the retailers added 2,182 stores in FY26, equivalent to six new stores a day on a net basis. In comparison, they added 1,745 stores in FY25 and 1,865 in FY24.
Retailers attributed the store expansion spree to improving consumer sentiment, helped further by cuts in income tax and goods and services tax (GST) rates last fiscal, along with low penetration of organised retail in smaller towns and cities. Together, the ten retailers had 31,394 stores operational as of March 2026.
Expansion Set to Continue
V-Mart Retail chief executive officer Lalit Agarwal said the ongoing shift from unorganised to organised retail is fuelling this expansion as several companies are meeting their sales growth expectations. “Many retailers have also raised capital, which they are deploying to grow topline,” he said, adding that the “growth phase will continue in the current fiscal as well.”
Companies surveyed by ET also include Shoppers Stop, Westlife Foodworld, V2 Retail and Kalyan Jewellers. Together, the ten retailers had 31,394 stores operational as of March 2026. Their combined store count grew 7% in FY26, ahead of a 6% expansion in the year before.
Reliance Retail alone added 820 net stores last fiscal, rebounding from a slowdown in FY25 when it shut several unviable outlets that were opened immediately post Covid, impacting overall industry growth rates. The country’s largest retailer had added 504 net stores in FY25, 796 in FY24, and 2,844 in FY23.
Similarly, Tata-owned Titan added 532 stores in FY23, but expansion moderated to 280-290 stores annually in FY25 and FY26.
India’s retail industry saw hyper expansion in late FY22 and FY23 as retailers sought to tap a boom in post-pandemic revenge shopping.
“Retail expansion now is more organic and measured as compared to the post Covid phase when there was a huge backlog of demand and over expansion,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder and CEO at Third Eyesight, a consultancy in consumer space.
(Published in Economic Times)
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May 6, 2026
Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, MINT
Mumbai, 6 May 2026
Fashion retailers are speeding up deliveries to keep pace with instant-gratification shopping driven by quick-fashion startups, with established players and newer brands taking sharply different approaches.
For example, brands such as Biba and The House of Rare have adopted a more calibrated, infrastructure-led strategy rather than a rapid overhaul of existing store networks. “We’ve been doing this in a very soft way but not necessarily from the same stores because that affects the customer experience,” said Siddharth Bindra, managing director of Biba. Bindra said using retail stores as fulfilment hubs for rapid delivery creates operational constraints, particularly given store sizes and layouts. “We don’t have very large stores; they are anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 square feet. So that’s not the right efficiency,” he said.
Instead, the brand is evaluating a hub-based model in cities with higher store density, enabling faster deliveries without disrupting stone operations. “If we do, it will be though proper hubs in cities where we have four to five stores, where we would start with quick commerce and accelerate it,” he said. This could enable same-day or two to three-hour deliveries.
The House of Rare, which houses Rare Rabbit (men’s urban fashion) and Rareism (women’s fashion), is adopting a similar approach, evaluating city-levee fulfilment hubs in markets with higher store concentrations to enable faster deliveries while keeping retail outlets focused on walk-in consumers.
The strategy reflects a broader attempt among legacy retallers to belance speed with experience, rather than treating stores as Interchangeable logistics nodes. “The eventual goal is the customer, but it creates a lot of difference in the customer experience” Bindra said, pointing to the trade-offs involved.
Different take
In contrast, some brands are moving more aggressively to integrate stones directly into fulfilment networks.
Libas, an initial public offering (IPO)-bound apparel company, is networking its operating model to plug its physical retail network Into a faster, hyperlocal delivery system.
Earlier, the 12-year-old company followed a more traditional structure. Online orders were largely fulfilled from central warehouses and delivered over a few days, while stores primarily served walk-in customers, with the two channels operating independently.
That is now changing. Libas is using its stores and nearby warehouses as local fulfilment points, allowing it to service orders within a much smaller delivery radius,
“At Libas, the time frame will be approximately 60-90 minutes at the max,” said Bhavay Pruthi, senior vice president, e-commerce and product management.
The rollout has been gradual, starting with select cities and limited catchments, typically within a 7-10km radius, where delivery timelines can be tightly controlled. It has also narrowed the product mix initialy to itams that are easier to move quickly.
The push comes as consumer expectations around delivery timelines extend beyond groceries into fashion, forcing brands to rethink supply-chain design,
Rise of quick fashion
The urgency to adapt is being shaped by a surge in quick fashion startups that are attracting investor attention despite heavy cash burm.
The segment has seen a flurry of funding in recent months, with Zilo raising $15.3 million in February led by Peak XV, and Knot securing $5 million in a round led by 12 Flags in December.
It has also evolved rapidly. Quick-commerce platforms such as Zepto, Instamart and Blinkit initially offered a limited range of basic fashion items for last-minute purchases. This has since expanded into a more specialized category, with vertical players offering wider assortments across party, work and occasion wear with rapid delivery timelines.
New entrants are pushing the model further. Wydo, for instance, promises deliveries within 15 to 30 minutes in Bengaluru, while Gen Z-focused offerings such as Newme’s Zip and Snitch Quick are building businesses around near-instant fashion access.
Myntra’s rapid commerce division, M-Now, accounted for about 10% of orders in the locations where it was available as of last November.
“This is the new kind of experience that customers are expecting,” Pruthi said.
Libas is working with third-party logistics providers and quick commerce platforms for the last-mile delivery, while focusing internally on faster picking, packing and order routing. Quick commerce currently accounts for about 2% of its overall sales, with scope to grow as the model scales..
Early results, however, highlight the trade-offs. “We saw very good sell-throughs for e-commerce, but it was cannibalizing existing store sales,” Pruths said.
There are also fimits to what customers are willing to buy through rapid-delivery channels. “Customers do not have the confidence to spend 15,000 for a fashion product from a quick- commerce channel,” he said.
To address this, Libas has tightened delivery radii, curated a more suitable product mix, and is testing stores with attached dark-store infrastructure to balance walk-in and online demand.
Experts say these challenges are structural.
“If you look at fashion, it’s extremely unpredictable, and if you are a brand across multiple products, it’s complicated process,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of management consulting firm Third Eyesight.
While demand for faster deliveries is rising, it remains a small slice of the overall market, with profitability still uncertain due to limited assortments and high fulfilment costs. For traditional retailers, adopting the model requires a fundamental reworking of supply chains that were not built for near-instant delivery, Dutta added.
(Published in MINT)
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May 2, 2026
Neethi Lisa Rojan, Mint
2 May 2026, Mumbai
Fast-moving consumer goods makers are leaning on a mix of price increases, smaller pack sizes and tighter cost controls to navigate raw-material volatility triggered by the ongoing US-Iran war, while still reporting robust volume growth for the March quarter. The ongoing war blew up end February this year, disrupting global supply chains.
Executives at top firms said calibrated pricing and ‘shrinkflation’ are helping them protect margins. The trend shows staples demand have held up, but also points to a gradual pass-through of higher commodity and packaging costs to consumers as geopolitical disruptions keep input prices elevated.
At Hindustan Unilever Ltd, the strategy is already in motion. The company has implemented calibrated price hikes and adjusted grammage across products. “We are taking calibrated pricing action in the range of 2-5%,” chief financial officer Niranjan Gupta said in a post-earnings briefing on Thursday. “We use a combination of both the put-down price as well as optimizing the fill levels,” said Gupta. The management also noted that its products in the homecare segment such as soaps (Lux, Pears, Dove, etc.) and detergents (Surf Excel, Rin, etc.) will be the first to be affected by price hikes. Interestingly, this happened at a time when HUL’s volumes grew the fastest in 15 quarters.
Companies have anticipated how consumers will behave.
“In times of inflation, income uncertainty, etc. essentials such as packaged foods, biscuits, and household cleaning products tend to see trade-down behaviour rather than outright disappearance of demand,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of management consultancy, Third Eyesight. “Consumers tend to shift to smaller pack sizes or private labels, rather than abandoning categories altogether,” he adds.
India’s retail inflation rose from 2.75% in January 2026 to a 10-month high of 3.40% in March, driven largely by food prices.
That balance between pricing and demand is playing out across the sector. Nestle S.A., the parent company of the Indian entity said it saw 3.5% organic sales growth during the quarter, with RIG (real internal growth or volume growth) of 1.2% and pricing of 2.3% in the January-March quarter.
“The conflict in the Middle East will have some impact on commodity and distribution costs, and possibly on consumer behavior. But it’s too early to know the full extent of this,” chief executive officer at Nestlé S.A, Philipp Navratil said in the analyst call after the results. Its India unit, Nestlé India, reported its strongest quarterly growth in nearly a decade, led by double-digit volume expansion.
HUL reported a 21% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹2,994 crore, while Nestle India saw net profit up 27% at ₹1,110.9 crore. year-on-year to ₹1,110.9 crore in Q4 FY26. HUL has also retained its medium-term guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) at 22.5%-23.5%.
The resilience in volumes comes even as input costs surge. Prices of crude oil-linked materials, especially packaging, have risen sharply following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. High-density polyethylene, widely used in packaging, jumped about 42% in March from the previous month.
Multinationals are already bracing for the fallout. Tide and Gillette maker Procter & Gamble, said in its quarterly earnings call that it could take roughly a $1 billion post-tax hit to its fiscal 2027 profit from surging oil prices. Still, not all inputs are moving in tandem. Prices of staples such as wheat, sugar, tea and coffee have remained relatively stable, offering some cushion. Edible oils, however, remain a concern.
Palm oil, a critical input in many FMCG products, is seeing supply shifts, as producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia divert output toward biodiesel. AWL Agribusiness, which sells Fortune oil, said in the quarterly analyst call that edible oils faced a 10% price surge in March, which has already been passed to consumers. The company expects to pass on the rise in packaging material prices also soon. The company posted a 53% jump in consolidated net profit to ₹292 crore in Q4FY26, from ₹190 crore a year earlier.
Experts expect the trend of margin-saving strategies to continue.
“Depending on the product, category and brand, we will see a mix of price hikes, shrinkflation and rationalization of SKUs (stock keeping units), and also a shift from brand-related to tactical advertising and promotional spends to boost short-term demand,” Dutta said.
Elsewhere, companies are acknowledging broad-based inflation but are continuing to push through growth. Bajaj Consumer Care reported near double-digit volume gains even as managing director Naveen Pandey noted that “nearly 100%” of its cost base is under inflation. The company plans further pricing actions alongside cost optimization. Bajaj Consumer Care’s net profit for the March quarter more than doubled to ₹63.6 crore from a year ago.
Beyond the basics
The ripple effects extend beyond staples. Fashion, lifestyle and grocery retailer Trent Ltd flagged uncertainty around supply chains and inflation, warning of potential implications for near-term demand. “Duration and intensity of disruptions in the Middle East, along with its second order effect on supply chain, commodity prices and inflation in general has potential implications for near-term demand,” the company said in its results presentation.
Meanwhile, consumer appliance maker Havells India has initiated price increases after what chairman Anil Rai Gupta described as an unprecedented escalation in input costs. “I’ve not seen this kind of a price escalation in the recent past in the recent memory,” he said in the post results analyst call.“ Calibrated price actions have been initiated, he said. Havells India reported a strong 40% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹723 crore in the March quarter.
More clarity may emerge as additional earnings roll in. Companies with higher exposure to West Asia, such as Dabur and Emami, are yet to report results and could face greater consolidated impact due to regional disruptions. “Companies such as Dabur and Emami will be more affected at the consolidated level due to issues in the MENA or Middle East and North Africa Region (6-8% revenue salience),” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services ahead of the earnings season.
For now, inventory buffers are offering temporary relief. Some companies have built raw-material stockpiles lasting up to six months, helping them absorb immediate shocks. “In our international markets, our effect will be in the raw material, practically zero to a couple of points maybe because we are well-stocked not just for this quarter, but the next quarter also. We normally carry six months inventory in international,” said Raj Pal Gandhi, whole-time director at Varun Beverages, the largest bottler of Pepsico in India, in the quarterly analyst call. This has helped the firm tide over the challenges in plastic shortage faced in March.
However, companies will now have to buy raw materials at higher prices, leaving room open for more price hikes.
(Published in MINT)
