Viveat Susan Pinto, Business Standard

Mumbai, 5 May 2016

Fabfurnish.com, the online furniture retailer acquired by Kishore-Biyani-led Future Group, was relaunched on Thursday with a fresh campaign and a slew of deals. It marks a new chapter in the evolution of the group, which is best known for kicking off the modern retail revolution in India a decade ago.

However, when Biyani, 54, laid his hands on the Rocket-Internet-promoted company last month, it did come as a surprise. The Marwari businessman has been a fierce critic of the e-commerce business model in India, saying it is designed to lure consumers with discounts with little focus on profits. He had told Business Standard earlier that he was waiting for the bubble to burst before he would make his moves.

That moment appears to have arrived. Fabfurnish is his first acquisition but more such deals could be in the offing. “I am not closed to the idea,” he says. “I will do it selectively and ensure our investments make money,” he adds.

It is clear the lines between physical and virtual shopping are blurring for him. In a press conference on May 4, he said he plans to merge the group’s home furnishings business under HomeTown with Fabfurnish and subsequently de-merge it from flagship Future Retail.

The goal is to unlock value and make his home furnishings business a stronger enterprise in the face of increased competition. Once the online and offline arms are merged, HomeTown is likely to reach a turnover of Rs 1,000 crore within a year. It closed the last financial year with revenues of around Rs 750 crore.

The driving force

Biyani’s hybrid business model, also called omni-channel retail in industry parlance, is a compulsion, say analysts. With consumers today spread far and wide, brick-and-mortar retailers have been left with no option but to add an online leg to their offline operations in a bid to reach as many customers as possible, and quickly.

Biyani has been at work on an omni-channel presence for a year now, trying to create a seamless and consistent brand experience across his group’s retail channels: bigbazaardirect, futurebazaar.com and offine stores. Other retailers, including Reliance Retail, Aditya Birla Retail and Shoppers Stop, have also been working on creating an omni-channel presence in recent months.

“The endeavour is to reach more consumer touchpoints and ensure you are there while the action is on. The ultimate objective is customer acquisition. That will mean that you have to go where he or she is,” says Devangshu Dutta, chief executive, Third Eyesight, a consultancy firm.

A recent study by the Retailers Association of India and Mumbai-based data analytics firm Hansa Cequity says that nearly 74 per cent Indians shop across all channels including neighbourhood stores, modern trade outlets and online platforms.

The study also notes that a significant number of these consumers still prefer to touch and feel products before buying, implying therefore that an online-only model is not enough.

Domestic e-tailers have picked up this cue. The top three e-commerce majors -Flipkart, Snapdeal and Amazon – have all gone offline in the last six to eight months to ensure the “touch and feel” experience is provided to consumers.

Flipkart, for instance, has tied-up with brick-and-mortar retailer Spice Hotspot to provide access to its exclusive range of phones offline. Its fashion arm Myntra is in advanced talks to acquire brick-and-mortar chain Forever 21, which will allow it to stock its online catalogue offline.

The same goes for rival Snapdeal, which has initiated tie-ups with The Mobile Store and Shoppers Stop for mobiles and apparel, respectively. Amazon, too, is tying up with small retailers across the country in a bid to allow consumers with no internet access to shop online in these outlets. It is also setting up Amazon-branded stores offline.

Additionally, the top three e-tailers have pick-up stores offline where consumers who’ve purchased products online can get delivery of their goods.

Dutta says the online-offline retail marriage follows global trends. “E-tailers abroad such as Amazon, Birchbox and Bonobos in the US, Spartoo in France, Astley Clarke in the UK have all opened physical retail stores in recent years. This completes the picture in a sense and plugs gaps if any,” he says.

Social media to retail

Hybrid business models are not restricted to retail alone. Social media giant Facebook recently entered hyper-local services in India, offering everything from medical and repair to business and personal services. Apart from letting users to browse for these services, the initiative also allows them to leave reviews so that other consumers can make the right choice.

Tech giant Google, too, is on a similar adventure. In recent years, it has ventured into making wearable tech devices, mobile phones and is now piloting driver-less cars. This even as it strengthens its presence online with a suite of services from basic search to online advertising, email, chat, browsing and software for phones.

Harish HV, partner (India leadership team), Grant Thornton India, says that hybrid business models for these companies is a way to ring-fence themselves from competition by marking their presence in virtually every space.

This online-offline merger, he says, will mean that these firms will get stronger as they enter new areas. The world is indeed shrinking.

(Published in Business Standard)

(Published in the Financial Express, 10 May 2016)

In about 20 years, Café Coffee Day (CCD) has grown from one ‘cyber café’ in Bengaluru to the leading chain of cafés in the country by far.

In its early years, it was a conservative, almost sleepy, business. The launch of Barista in the late 1990s and its rapid growth was the wake-up call for CCD — and wake up it did!

CCD then expanded aggressively. It focussed on the young and more affluent customers. Affordability was a keystone in its strategy and it largely remains the most competitively priced among the national chains.

Its outlets ranged widely in size — and while this caused inconsistency in the brand’s image — it left competitors far behind in terms of market coverage. However, the market hasn’t stayed the same over the years and CCD now has tough competition.

CCD competes today with not only domestic cafés such as Barista or imports such as Costa and Starbucks, but also quick-service restaurants (QSRs) such as McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts. In the last couple of years, in large cities, even the positioning of being a ‘hang-out place’ is threatened by a competitor as unlikely as the alcoholic beverage-focussed chain Beer Café.

CCD is certainly way ahead of other cafés in outlet numbers and visibility in over 200 cities. It has an advantage over QSRs with the focus on beverage and meetings, rather than meals. Food in CCD is mostly pre-prepared rather than in-store (unlike McD’s and Dunkin’) resulting in lower capex and training costs, as well as greater control since it’s not depending on store staff to prepare everything. However, rapid expansion stretches product and service delivery and high attrition of front-end staff is a major operational stress point. Upmarket initiatives Lounge and Square, which could improve its average billing, are still a small part of its business.

Delivery (begun in December 2015) and app-orders seem logical to capture busy consumers, and to sweat the assets invested in outlets. However, for now, I’m questioning the incremental value both for the consumer and the company’s ROI once all costs (including management time and effort) are accounted for. The delivery partner is another variable (and risk) in the customer’s experience of the brand. Increasing the density through kiosks and improving the quality of beverage dispensed could possibly do more for the brand across the board.

The biggest advantage for CCD is that India is a nascent market for cafés. The café culture has not even scratched the surface in the smaller markets and in travel-related locations. The challenge for CCD is to act as an aggressive leader in newer locations, while becoming more sophisticated in its positioning in large cities. It certainly needs to allocate capex on both fronts but larger cities need more frequent refreshment of the menu and retraining of staff.

An anonymous Turkish poet wrote: “Not the coffee, nor the coffeehouse is the longing of the soul. A friend is what the soul longs for, coffee is just the excuse.” There are still many millions of friends in India for whom the coffee-house remains unexplored territory, whom CCD could bring together.

Aggregator models and hyperlocal delivery, in theory, have some significant advantages over existing business models.

Unlike an inventory-based model, aggregation is asset-light, allowing rapid building of critical mass. A start-up can tap into existing infrastructure, as a bridge between existing retailers and the consumer. By tapping into fleeting consumption opportunities, the aggregator can actually drive new demand to the retailer in the short term.

A hyperlocal delivery business can concentrate on understanding the nuances of a customer group in a small geographic area and spend its management and financial resources to develop a viable presence more intensively.

However, both business models are typically constrained for margins, especially in categories such as food and grocery. As volume builds up, it’s feasible for the aggregator to transition at least part if not the entire business to an inventory-based model for improved fulfilment and better margins. By doing so the aggregator would, therefore, transition itself to being the retailer.

Customer acquisition has become very expensive over the last couple of years, with marketplaces and online retailers having driven up advertising costs – on top of that, customer stickiness is very low, which means that the platform has to spend similar amounts of money to re-acquire a large chunk of customers for each transaction.

The aggregator model also needs intensive recruitment of supply-side relationships. A key metric for an aggregator’s success is the number of local merchants it can mobilise quickly. After the initial intensive recruitment the merchants need to be equipped to use the platform optimally and also need to be able to handle the demand generated.

Most importantly, the acquisitions on both sides – merchants and customers – need to move in step as they are mutually-reinforcing. If done well, this can provide a higher stickiness with the consumer, which is a significant success outcome.

For all the attention paid to the entry and expansion of multinational retailers and nationwide ecommerce growth, retail remains predominantly a local activity. The differences among customers based on where they live or are located currently and the immediacy of their needs continue to drive diversity of shopping habits and the unpredictability of demand. Services and information based products may be delivered remotely, but with physical products local retailers do still have a better chance of servicing the consumer.

What has been missing on the part of local vendors is the ability to use web technologies to provide access to their customers at a time and in a way that is convenient for the customers. Also, importantly, their visibility and the ability to attract customer footfall has been negatively affected by ecommerce in the last 2 years. With penetration of mobile internet across a variety of income segments, conditions are today far more conducive for highly localised and aggregation-oriented services. So a hyperlocal platform that focusses on creating better visibility for small businesses, and connecting them with customers who have a need for their products and services, is an opportunity that is begging to be addressed.

It is likely that each locality will end up having two strong players: a market leader and a follower. For a hyperlocal to fit into either role, it is critical to rapidly create viability in each location it targets, and – in order to build overall scale and continued attractiveness for investors – quickly move on to replicate the model in another location, and then another. They can become potential acquisition targets for larger ecommerce companies, which could acquire to not only take out potential competition but also to imbibe the learnings and capabilities needed to deal with demand microcosms.

High stake bets are being placed on this table – and some being lost with business closures – but the game is far from being played out yet.

Retailers seem to be fighting a losing battle against the growth of ecommerce, and it is only the nature of the shopping activity, especially for fashion – interactive, social, and immersive as it is – that has kept many retailers relevant and in business.

However, the defensive stance is changing, and now they’re using technology to get the customers back into the store. Forward-thinking retailers are reimagining trial rooms, stores, business processes and entire business models. It’s not a physical versus virtual approach but an approach that integrates both sides. The idea is to create a more immersive experience than pure digital retail can be, using some of the same tools as ecommerce.

It is important to remember that the whole retail environment is a “suggestive” environment. Due to cost and other operational factors most retailers are ill-equipped to provide appropriate levels of excitement, suggestion and support during the browsing and buying process.

For many, the simplest move could be screens serving up their catalogue to customers within the store. For instance, US department store chain Kohl’s has initiated connected fitting rooms that identify products the customer is carrying, and bring up not only those items onscreen, but additional colours and sizes that are available. If the customer wants an alternative, a message goes to a sales associate who can fetch the requested option. Macy’s and Bloomingdales are using tablets in the trial rooms, while Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus and Rebecca Minkoff are attempting to boost their fashion sales using magic mirrors to provide similar enablement. These devices and the processes empower and involve the customer far more, while leaving store staff free for other activities.

A step up, Puma is using “virtual trials” for its apparel products by having a customer take images of herself in specific positions, and then mapping styles on their own images to visualise how they might look. While this needs more work and investment, this is still only a more developed product browser technique from the customer’s point-of-view.

The next level, augmented reality trials and virtual fit, are significantly more sophisticated at creating simulations of a selected garment image draping and falling on the customer’s body even as he or she moves normally. Imaging and texturing of the simulated garments is technically challenging and expensive, repeated for each new style and option. The imaging also needs to mimic the “wearer’s” movements. Nevertheless, retailers such as Polo Ralph Lauren are finding it worth their while to investigate these new technologies, as these reintroduce the much needed “theatre” that are integral to a successful retailer.

For the customer virtualisation expands the number of items “taken” into the trial room, and creates more convenient product discovery. More products can be seen in the same shopping time, and sharing of images and videos with friends and family, engages them in the shopping process as well.

For retailers, the benefits multiply. Inventory can be optimised, and there is reduced handling and shrinkage. Even without sales associates, it is feasible to prompt for alternatives and related products, improving conversion and transaction values, reducing space and costs of physical trial rooms, and increasing the number of customers serviced especially at peak traffic times.

A phenomenal advantage is the data captured that is relevant while the customer is in the store, but which can be linked to future promotions. Valuable intelligence, such as what is being tried and for how long, can help the retailer to quickly gauge demand patterns, and adjust pricing and promotions. Normally retailers only capture sales transactions (post-fact), and miss out the rich information on in-store behaviour that etailers do collect and analyse.

However, massive hurdles to virtualisation remain, including data input accuracy, product accuracy, and the technical capabilities of the tech solution adopted. A bigger concern is whether technology is intuitive and seamless, or whether it gets in the way of the shopping experience. Further, consumers do have privacy concerns about the images and other data collected.

Its important to remind ourselves that, on its own, technology is just a novelty – huge transformation of business processes, organisational capabilities and behaviours must happen as well.

That is perhaps the biggest mountain to climb.

The Patanjali Group has created an Indian FMCG giant in a very short span of time on the back of a three-pronged strategy:

1. The enormous brand awareness that can be attributed to the very high visibility of Baba Ramdev, across a variety of media and issues,
2. Wide and deep market penetration through a large network of outlets and distributors across the country, and
3. Pricing itself below the benchmark competitor in each product area in which it is competing.

Over time, the group has also invested in improving its manufacturing and packaging infrastructure to bring itself on par with well-established competitors.

The group has clearly focussed itself on the mass market, and Patanjali Group’s products become a “go-to” for customers who are more price-sensitive than brand-loyal. This definitely creates pressure on established brands in each of the product segments where the group is now present.

In the growing market for ready-to-cook packaged food, a new entrant would struggle to create visibility and initial demand. However, with the momentum of the Patanjali brand behind it, the group’s new product — instant noodles — has a fighting chance.

I must say, though, that the immediate opportunity would have been bigger had Maggi also not just relaunched in the market. The other aspect to keep in mind is that while a lot of food and nutraceutical products resonate easily with the Patanjali brand, instant noodles seem completely counter-intuitive under this brand’s umbrella. How much consumers will support this new launch remains to be seen.

This 2-4 minute noodles story is still cooking. Keep watching the pot!