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November 3, 2026
Pritha Pahari, The Core
3 November 2026
India’s packaged food and soap makers are running out of easy choices. Input costs have continued to rise since late February, when the Middle East conflict began disrupting supply chains and pushing up crude-linked costs.
A visible price hike, however, risks sending shoppers to a rival. To offset this, companies have reduced package sizes. However, scope for how much these packs can be reduced is limited, especially for products already sold at low price points. Take the example of a Rs 10 pack of Parle-G biscuits.
At this price, there is little room to reduce the quantity further without risking consumer dissatisfaction. Cutting the pack size could make the product less attractive, while increasing the price may discourage price-sensitive buyers.
India’s FMCG giants have squeezed pack sizes about as far as they can go. With input costs still climbing and shoppers watching every rupee, the choice between eating the cost and raising prices is coming, likely right after Diwali.
The Hikes Are In
Britannia, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Dabur and Godrej Consumer had already raised prices by around 2-5% in the June quarter, and were weighing more for the September quarter. FMCG companies have continued to raise prices to offset higher input costs.
FMCG companies have continued to raise prices to offset higher input costs.
Tata Consumer Products increased tea prices by 8-10% between the June and September quarters, while it raised the price of its Rs 30 salt pack to Rs 32 in May and again to Rs 34 in October.
Hindustan Unilever also took price increases of around 7.5% during the September quarter, according to media reports.
Godrej Consumer Products said it would continue calibrated price increases, particularly in soaps and liquid detergents, to manage cost pressures.
Dabur has also confirmed taking pricing actions in its October business update, while Britannia had indicated a further 1.5-2% increase, largely through smaller packs. However, the latter two companies’ September-quarter results were still awaited.
Experts said that lower-income households face greater pressure because everyday essentials take up a larger share of their budgets. Affordable products such as biscuits, noodles, soaps, detergents and cooking oils are particularly sensitive to price changes.
According to experts, some manufacturers are weighing selective price increases after Diwali, possibly from December.
Shoppers haven’t walked away yet
So far, demand is holding up. Nestlé India’s sales rose 20.5 per cent to Rs 6,782 crore in the September quarter, with double-digit volume growth.
At HUL, June-quarter underlying sales growth of 10 per cent came equally from volume and price.
The market is still nervous.
Nestlé India shares closed 7.7% lower on results day after management flagged rising input costs, especially packaging, edible oils and farm commodities.
Business Standard quoted chairman Manish Tiwary as saying, “Rising inflation, particularly food inflation, is a reality.”
India’s FMCG volume growth remains mixed, although several companies continue to report resilient demand. Tata Consumer Products’ India branded volume growth eased from 16% in Q4 FY26 to 13% in Q1 FY27 and 11% in Q2 FY27.
Marico reported that India volume growth reached near double digits in Q2 FY27, following 11% in Q1.
Dabur India recorded 5% underlying volume growth in Q1 FY27, while its October update indicated double-digit revenue growth for Q2 but did not disclose a confirmed volume figure.
Overall, demand remains resilient, but revenue growth should not be confused with volume growth, particularly as companies raise prices to offset higher input costs.
Why Smaller Packs?
Satish Meena, founder of research firm Datum Intelligence, said that companies try to absorb costs first. “They can do it for one quarter, they can do it for two quarters, but at a certain point they have to pass it on to the customer,” he said. He expects much of that to happen after the festive season.
Discounts are not an option either, since margins are thin. That leaves pack sizes. “Instead of 150 grams, we are doing 120 grams, keeping the price the same,” Meena said, describing the move.
A visible price rise carries a risk of its own.
“Your positioning in the shop will change, and customers will also perceive you as an expensive product and look for other brands,” he said. Once a rival takes the shelf space, it is hard to win it back.
Devangshu Dutta, founder of research firm Third Eyesight, says price points are hard to move. “Price points are often anchored either in the consumer’s mind or by competitive benchmark pricing, making them difficult to change,” he said.
He also said the practice now carries a reputation risk. “The shrinkflation phenomenon isn’t new, but social media has given it viral visibility, which can potentially damage brand reputation.”
Pricing Pecking Order
Meena said companies will follow a set order. First they improve buying and supply chains, then trim ad spending. Next they raise prices on premium products, where buyers are more willing to pay. Raising prices across all products comes last, so they don’t lose share.
Dutta says companies are “caught in a vice” because input costs are rising while core shoppers are cautious about spending. Companies have “no option but to cut brand-level advertising and also review overheads deeply.”
Indian FMCG companies are facing rising input costs across several product categories.
In October 2026, plastic packaging costs were reported to have increased by 30–40%, putting pressure on snack makers and household-product manufacturers.
Palm oil prices rose 21% year-on-year in September, while sunflower oil increased 14%, soybean oil 9% and mustard oil 8%.
Sugar prices climbed 18% year-on-year, adding pressure on confectionery and packaged-food producers.
Tea prices rose 10% over the same period. Coffee and cocoa also recorded increases, with Arabica coffee up 19% quarter-on-quarter and cocoa rising 48%. These increases affect biscuits, noodles, chocolates, soaps, shampoos and detergents differently.
Now What?
The next test is HUL’s September-quarter results, due after its board meets on 28 October. Meena does not expect much to change in the next one to two quarters.
He says the pressure is not seasonal. “It’s because of the war happening in the Middle East… it’s a much longer issue for them,” and he points to RBI data showing some impact on demand.
Input-cost pressures could persist into early 2027.
S&P Global’s September outlook projected elevated manufacturing costs through 2027, while October data showed plastic packaging costs 30–40% higher and key polymer prices more than 50% above pre-conflict levels.
Although prices may ease if supply routes improve, these figures suggest FMCG companies could face continued cost pressure over the next two quarters.
Dutta said only a few brands will come through easily. “Few brands or products are able to build longer-term loyalty consistently and whose value to the consumer is stickier than the resistance to price movement.”
For everyone else, the room to raise prices or shrink packs is running out.
(Published in The Core)
