Over the past five years, legacy players have made a slew of investments in D2C startups. 

Marico has acquired men’s grooming brand Beardo, beauty brand Just Herbs and breakfast brand True Elements. Similarly, Emami acquired vegan cosmetics brand Brillare Science and grooming brand The Man Company. It recently picked up a minority stake in nutrition company TruNativ. Colgate-Palmolive and Reckitt both hold minority stakes in Bombay Shaving Company, whereas Wipro Consumer Care has invested in The Ayurveda Company. ITC has invested in baby and mother care brands Mother Sparsh and Mylo.

Devangshu Dutta explained the reasons behind the trend of larger FMCG companies acquiring D2C brands.

Written By Mukherjee, ET Bureau

Top listed retail chains such as Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Avenue Supermarts and Tata-owned Trent are going to lead store additions through the next financial year, as they double down on expansion after the pandemic, company executives and analysts said.

As per a recent report by ICICI Securities, 16.7 million square feet of retail space would be added by eight large, listed retail chains between FY21 and FY24 as compared to 8 million square feet added in the preceding four years of FY18-21. These companies also include Titan, Bata, V-Mart, TCNS and Shoppers Stop.

The buoyed sentiment comes after the recovery of retailers to more than their pre-Covid levels in the last two quarters, and is also driven by pentup demand, strong sales despite increasing prices and expansion into small-tier towns, the report said. There has been an expansion of the market which is happening along with a consolidation, said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of consulting firm Third Eyesight. “Not all locations might turn out to be viable, but in every expansion cycle there are boom and bust. And the bust is not as big as the boom. Right now, we are in the expansion cycle,” he said.

Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail managing director Ashish Dikshit told analysts recently that the company would expand rapidly since plans were held up in the last two years due to the pandemic, with faster growth for fashion business, ethnic wear and inner wear. The company, which had raised ₹2,195 crore from GIC Singapore, intends to invest ₹600-800 crore for expansion in the next couple of years.

“…we continued to believe both in the long-term growth potential of the market and intrinsic strength of our brands and we feel now the time is to accelerate to catch up on what we have not done over the last 12 to 18 months and I would go back almost till the beginning of the Covid period from 18 to 24 months where some of our growth initiatives have held back,” said Dikshit.

As per the ICICI report, Avenue Supermarts would add 7.5 million sq ft during FY21-24 for the DMart stores as compared to 3.9 million sq ft added in FY18-21. Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail would add 3.1 million sq ft as compared to 1.2 million sq ft in preceding four years, while, among others, Trent would add 2.7 million sq ft (vs 1.5 million sq ft), Shoppers Stop would add 0.8 million sq ft (0.2 million sq ft) and Bata would add 0.7 million sq ft (0.2 million sq ft).

India’s largest retailer, Reliance Retail, too has accelerated expansion plans including taking its stores into new geographies, Gaurav Jain, head of strategy and business development told analysts recently.

Source: economictimes

Financial Express, 17 January 2022

The e-grocery market has seen the emergence of new-age, hyperlocal players, each outmaneuvering the other in terms of delivery timelines. Vaishnavi Gupta asks experts if online and offline grocery retailers ought to worry as quick commerce companies like Dunzo, Zepto and Blinkit, which promise delivery in a matter of minutes, get in the fast lane.

‘Knowing your customer’s needs is key’ – Devangshu Dutta, Founder, Third Eyesight

The answer to various questions around the e-grocery space in India lies in how you respond to this one question: if grocery is delivered tomorrow instead of in 10 minutes or even on the same day, who cares? Knowing the customer you are targeting, and what they need, is what helps in crystallising a unique value proposition. The online grocery market is made up of diverse customers with diverse needs/ wants. There’s a whole spectrum from digital natives to those for whom shopping online is an add-on for specific products or specific needs. Figuratively speaking, most customers won’t put all their grocery eggs in one basket.

If ‘authoritative selection’ is the value proposition you want to play off, a hyperlocal infrastructure is virtually impossible to create. On the other hand, if hyperfast, hyperlocality is what your customer is after, then product selection must be strictly narrow. Time-criticality is also determined by the nature of the product. Fresh produce that is ordered regularly and frequently won’t shift en masse to a hyperfast website.

‘Impulse purchases small fraction of total purchases’ – Alagu Balaraman, CEO, Augmented SCM

Customers normally plan bulk purchases and prefer to get them out of the way. So, fewer orders are more convenient. Customers also like to browse for new brands and packs. So, it is likely that a 10-minute delivery will be useful for impulse purchases or emergencies. This accounts for a small fraction of the total purchase basket of the customer. Servicing small orders will raise the unit delivery cost per item. Initially, this might be funded by investors, but eventually, the customer will pay. Or will they?

From a sustainability perspective, the “oops I forgot” or “I want it now” style of purchase is counter to the green style of the new generation. Having small orders transported to doorsteps will substantially damage our collective carbon footprint and aggravate climate change issues. We have seen this excitement over hyperlocal delivery companies before — first in 2015 and again in 2018. Most have retreated on plans or have allowed themselves to be acquired at presumably modest valuations.

‘E-grocery profitability a major challenge’ – Rajat Wahi, Partner, Deloitte India

The majority (around 85%) of the grocery sales are done through the 10-12 million kirana/ mom-and-pop stores spread across India; 8-10% sales happen through modern retail chains; while online sales account for less than 3% of the total grocery sales today. Online grocers need to surpass the services that end customers demand — such as products to suit local tastes, sales credit, instant delivery on orders via phone or WhatsApp, small orders with no minimums, personal touch, returns and exchange — which is being done at a very low cost and margin by the kirana stores.

This is a tall order for e-grocery players. They are tying up with kiranas for last mile order fulfilment and delivery, offering a differentiated range of products, and better value using their EDLP (every day, low price) model, focussing on fresh meats through a better cold chain, offering credit and discounts, and more. Unless we see a major consolidation of retail in the coming years, building a successful and profitable e-grocery business will continue to be a major challenge.

Oil shocks, financial market crashes, localised wars and even medical emergencies like SARS pale when compared to the speed and the scale of the mayhem created by SARS-CoV-2. In recent decades the world has become far more interconnected through travel and trade, so the viral disease – medical and economic – now spreads faster than ever. Airlines carrying business and leisure-travellers have also quickly carried the virus. Businesses benefitting from lower costs and global scale are today infected deeply due to the concentration of manufacturing and trade.

A common defensive action worldwide is the lock-down of cities to slow community transmission (something that, ironically, the World Health Organization was denying as late as mid-January). The Indian government implemented a full-scale 3-week national lockdown from March 25. The suddenness of this decision took most businesses by surprise, but quick action to ensure physical distancing was critical.

Clearly consumer businesses are hit hard. If we stay home, many “needs” disappear; among them entertainment, eating out, and buying products related to socializing. Even grocery shopping drops; when you’re not strolling through the supermarket, the attention is focussed on “needs”, not “wants”. A travel ban means no sales at airport and railway kiosks, but also no commute to the airport and station which, in turn means that the businesses that support taxi drivers’ daily needs are hit.

Responses vary, but cash is king! US retailers have wrangled aid and tax breaks of potentially hundreds of billions of dollars, as part of a US$2 trillion stimulus. A British retailer is filing for administration to avoid threats of legal action, and has asked landlords for a 5-month retail holiday. Several western apparel retailers are cancelling orders, even with plaintive appeals from supplier countries such as Bangladesh and India. In India, large corporate retailers are negotiating rental waivers for the lockdown period or longer. Many retailers are bloated with excess inventory and, with lost weeks of sales, have started cancelling orders with their suppliers citing “force majeure”. Marketing spends have been hit. (As an aside, will “viral marketing” ever be the same?)

On the upside are interesting collaborations and shifts emerging. In the USA, Jo-Ann Stores is supplying fabric and materials to be made up into masks and hospital gowns at retailer Nieman Marcus’ alteration facilities. LVMH is converting its French cosmetics factories into hand sanitizer production units for hospitals, and American distilleries are giving away their alcohol-based solutions. In India, hospitality groups are providing quarantine facilities at their empty hotels. Zomato and Swiggy are partnering to deliver orders booked by both online and offline retailers, who are also partnering between themselves, in an unprecedented wave of coopetition. Ecommerce and home delivery models are getting a totally unexpected boost due to quarantine conditions.

Life-after-lockdown won’t go back to “normal”. People will remain concerned about physical exposure and are unlikely to want to spend long periods of time in crowds, so entertainment venues and restaurants will suffer for several weeks or months even after restrictions are lifted, as will malls and large-format stores where families can spend long periods of time.

The second major concern will be income-insecurity for a large portion of the consuming population. The frequency and value of discretionary purchases – offline and online – will remain subdued for months including entertainment, eating-out and ordering-in, fashion, home and lifestyle products, electronics and durables.

The saving grace is that for a large portion of India, the Dusshera-Deepavali season and weddings provide a huge boost, and that could still float some boats in the second half of this year. Health and wellness related products and services would also benefit, at least in the short term. So 2020 may not be a complete washout.

So, what now?

Retailers and suppliers both need to start seriously questioning whether they are valuable to their customer or a replaceable commodity, and crystallise the value proposition: what is it that the customer values, and why? Business expansion, rationalised in 2009-10, had also started going haywire recently. It is again time to focus on product line viability and store productivity, and be clear-minded about the units to be retained.

Someone once said, never let a good crisis be wasted.

This is a historical turning point. It should be a time of reflection, reinvention, rejuvenation. It would be a shame if we fail to use it to create new life-patterns, social constructs, business models and economic paradigms.

(This article was published in the Financial Express under the headline “As Consumer businesses take a hard hit, time for retailers to reflect and reinvent”. 

Remember the year 2000? After Y2K passed safely, that year some optimistic analysts predicted that India’s modern retail chains would reach 20 per cent market share by 2015. Two years after that supposed watershed, another firm declared that modern retail will be at around that level in 2020 – but wait! – only in the top 9 cities in the country. Don’t hold your breath: India surprises; constantly. As many have noted, “predictions are tough, especially about the future!” What we can do is reflect on some of this year’s developments that could play out over the coming year.

In many minds 2019 may be the Year of the Recession, plagued by discounting, but that demand slowdown has brewing for some time now. However, there’s another under-appreciated factor that has been playing out: while small, independent retailers can flex their business investments with variations in demand, modern retail chains need to spread the business throughout the year in order to meet fixed expenses and to manage margins more consistently.

To reduce dependence on festive demand, retailers like Big Bazaar and Reliance have been inventing shopping events like Sabse Sasta Din (Cheapest Day), Sabse Sachi Sale (Most Authentic Sale), Republic Day / 3-Day sale, Independence Day shopping and more for the last few years. In ecommerce, there’s the Amazon’s Freedom Sale, Prime Day, and Great India Festival, and Flipkart’s Big Billion Day Sale. This year retailers and brands went overboard with Black Friday sale, a shopping-event concept from the 1950s in the USA linked to a harvest celebration marked by European colonisers of North America. (The fact that Black Friday has a totally different connotation in India since the terrorist bombings in Bombay in 1993 seems to have completely escaped the attention of brands, retailers and advertising agencies.) Be that as it may, we can only expect more such invented and imported events to pepper the retail calendar, to drive footfall and sales. The consumer has been successfully converted to a value-seeking man-eater fed on a diet of deals and discounts. With no big-bang economic stimuli domestically and a sputtering global economy, we should just get used to the idea of not fireworks but slow-burning oil lamps and sprinklings of flowers and colour through the year. Retailers will just have to work that much harder to keep the lamps from sputtering.

Ecommerce companies have been in operating for 20 years now, but the Indian consumer still mostly prefers a hands-on experience. The lack of trust is a huge factor, built on the back of inconsistency of products and services. The one segment that has been receiving a lot of love, attention and money this year (and will grow in 2020) is food and grocery, since it is the largest chunk of the consumption basket. Beyond the incumbents – Grofers, Big Basket, MilkBasket and the likes – now Walmart-Flipkart and Amazon are going hard at it, and Reliance has also jumped in. Remember, though, that selling groceries online is as old as the first dot-com boom in India. E-grocers still struggle to create a habit among their customers that would give them regular and remunerative transactions, and they also need to tackle supply-side challenges. Average transactions remain small, demand remains fragmented, and supply chain issues continue to be troublesome. Most e-grocers are ending up depending on a relatively narrow band of consumers in a handful of cities.  The generation that is comfortable with an ever-present screen is not yet large enough to tilt the scales towards non-store shopping and convenience isn’t the biggest driver for the rest, so, for a while it’ll remain a bumpy, painful, unprofitable road.

Where we will see rapid pick-up is social commerce, both in terms of referral networks as well as using social networks to create niche entrepreneurial businesses – 2020 should be a good year for social commerce, including a mix of online platforms, social media apps as well as offline community markets. However, western or East Asia models won’t be replicated as the Indian market is significantly lower in average incomes, and way more fragmented.

As a closing thought, I’ll mention a sector that I’ve been involved with (for far too long): fashion. In the last 8-10 decades, globally fashion has become an industry living off artificially-generated expiry dates. A challenge that I have extended to many in the industry, and this year publicly at a conference: if consumption falls to half in the next five years, and you still have to run a profitable business (obviously!), how would you do it? Plenty of clues lie in India – we epitomise the future consumers; frugal, value-seeking, wanting the latest and the best but not fearful about missing out the newest design, because it will just be there a few weeks later at a discount. If you can crack that customer base and turn a profit, you would be well set for the next decade or so.

(Published as a year-end perspective in the Financial Express.)