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May 25, 2023
Rochelle Britto & Shabori Das, The Economic Times
May 25, 2023
“Taiyaar Hoke Aaiye”. It seems the tagline has worked for the company which has been able to attract investors who came prepared for its offer for sale (OFS).
In a bid to reduce promoters’ shareholding down to 75% as per SEBI norms, Vedant Fashions, known for its ethnic wear brand Manyavar, floated the OFS on May 19 which saw huge participation — oversubscribed 1.4 times with bids for 34 million shares as compared to 24 million shares on the offer. The non-retail segment was oversubscribed 2.24 times.
The shares were offered at a price of INR1,161. While the stock initially fell 1.5% on May 19 to INR1,230, it was trading at INR1,268 on May 24, up 4.59% in five days.
The promoters have offloaded 16.9 million shares, which works out to 7% of the total equity shares with an option to sell additional 6.9 million (2.88%) shares, taking the total to 9.88%.
Manyavar represents the premium wedding market of the country and boasts of some big names as its brand ambassador — Virat Kohli, Amitabh Bachchan, Ranveer Singh, and Kartik Aaryan. With strong fundamentals, the company has grown at 30% CAGR over the last one year and investors feel this is one classic growth stock with high valuations that cannot be ignored. Vedant Fashions trades at a PE multiple of 73x while Trent, a competitor, has a PE of 119x.
The great Indian wedding
The sales of Vedant Fashion are highly correlated to the wedding season. The Indian wedding market is massive at USD50 billion with around 3 million weddings or events taking place every year. According to news reports, the spending is growing and is likely to be around INR3.75 lakh crore this year.
According to Crisil, weddings are getting bigger, grander, and longer, fuelled by higher disposable incomes and a surge in discretionary spending. It expects the ethnic-apparel market to grow between 15% and 17% to nearly INR1.38 trillion by 2025, supported by a growing desire among Indians to wear traditional attire instead of western wear for big celebrations.
While a lavish spending is done on everything, from venue to food to even flower arrangement, clothes hog the limelight. The business has become high-margin, elite, and high-fashion. And the organised market is growing at a very fast pace.
In the organised market, Vedant Fashion has a 40% market share which might be difficult to maintain as competition increases. “In the upcoming quarter, while April experiences a slight lull in wedding dates, May and June present an abundance of excellent opportunities. Moreover, as we analyse the entire year ahead, we are highly confident in the favourable wedding dates during Q3 and Q4. These trends align closely with our historical data, reinforcing our optimism for the current new financial year,”says Vedant Modi, chief marketing officer, Vedant Fashions.
“Vedant Fashions has successfully tapped into and emerged as the market leader, head and shoulders above competitors, in a segment that has been extremely fragmented. Festive wear and occasion wear is not immune to downturns, but is better placed to ride them out, and this makes it a very attractive product segment. However, Vedant have exploited this opportunity and scaled up much more successfully than other companies, beginning with menswear and then in womenswear,” says Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight.
Expansion spree
Vedant Fashions is expanding its retail footprint by adding around 75,000 sq ft retail area in Q4FY23. It has a total retail presence of 1.47 million square feet as of March FY23, spanning across 649 stores in 257 cities. There is a direct correlation between the addition of stores and the growth in sales, but the full potential of a new store takes some time. Almost 40% of the expansion has happened in the fourth quarter, so the full revenue (of the expansion) would come in the following year. Thus, many times the store growth doesn’t match the revenue growth.
The company is also expanding in US, UAE, London, and Canada to cater to the growing Indian community in these markets. For FY23, it has had sales growth of 30% at INR1,355 crore with Ebitda margins at 50%.
However, the growth witnessed by the company in FY23 has slowed down despite an upswing in events and weddings.
Vedant Fashions reported revenue growth of 76% in FY22 over FY21 and profit growth of 136% during the same period. While the slowdown in the growth rate can be attributed to settling down of revenge shopping post-pandemic, the number of social events has definitely increased to not take notice.
“Market valuations are an indicator of not only present value of a business but also perceived future value, and market leaders usually are rewarded with richer valuations(Page Industries is another such example),” adds Dutta.
The company’s latest presentation states that it has achieved 95% ROCE for FY23. The company is still in an investment stage and its cash flow statement says that INR249 crore is blocked in investments for FY23.
Market outlook
In a market that is lacking growth, the wedding season almost looks like recession-proof. The market has returned to growth mode even at a time when inflation is high and the overall economy is subdued. But then, the Indian wedding market — especially the part that Vedant Fashion tracks — is on a high and the growth will continue for a long time.
While the number of players is increasing, not many have a picture-perfect balance sheet with high ROEs and even higher Ebitda margins. Vedant Fashions has become the classic growth stock with very high valuations. It has a price/book value of 28x but investors feel that for a company that generates a high ROE and a high growth, the valuation is not extreme.
Mutual funds and institutional investors are making a beeline for the stock because of the growth rate and the overall size of the market. According to BSE filings, mutual funds account for 8.90% of the total holding where SBI Mutual Fund has the biggest share at 3.80%. On the other hand, retail holds 1.43%. Post the OFS, these numbers will go up.
The company successfully launched its initial public offering (IPO) last year. The stock debuted at an 8.08% premium over the issue price of INR866. The share slipped more than 4% on May 18 as the promoters announced plans to sell stake in the company.
Since listing, the company has gained 36% and has had a great run with its stock being up by a significant 27% over the last one year as compared to its peer Aditya Birla, which is down by 30.95%, and Nifty 50, up by just 12%.
The Indian apparel market is amongst the top three consumer categories. The pandemic made a lot of consumers switch to the online channel — which was also enabled by easy returns. However, while western apparel in India is a lot more frequently purchased when it comes to the online channel, the offline channel continues to be the primary source of consumers and footfall for ethnic-wear brands. The organised ethnic wear market in India is still relatively small, as the unorganised apparel category, ethnic and otherwise, continues to dominate.
The primary market for the unorganised ethnic wear is mostly women, driven by everyday and wedding wear categories.
According to Euromonitor International, a UK-based market research firm, the Indian apparel market is expected to be at USD58,773.8 million by the end CY23 (excluding the footwear market). The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during CY2023-CY2027.
“The apparel and footwear market experienced significant recovery in 2022 with the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. The industry also benefited from the return of festivals and weddings to their pre-pandemic fervour, as these are periods when the demand for categories such as ethnic apparel and other occasion-based apparel spiked,” says Euromonitor International.
The peer play
Prominent players like Aditya Birla Fashion, Reliance Retail, and Tata-owned Trent are making strategic investments in the country’s thriving ethnic wear market, estimated at INR1.84 trillion.
The recent acquisition of TCNS Clothing by Aditya Birla Fashion further solidifies this ongoing trend. With a transaction value of INR1,650 crore for a controlling stake of 51%, this acquisition highlights the company’s commitment to capitalising on the prevailing market dynamics.
According to Ashish Dikshit, managing director of Aditya Birla Fashion, ethnic wear commands the largest market share in India’s apparel industry, comprising 30% (equivalent to INR1.84 trillion) of the total domestic apparel market valued at INR6.15 trillion, while 80%-85% of the ethnic wear market, according to experts, is dominated by the unorganised segment. The branded or organised end of the market at 15%-20% (around INR28,000 crore – INR37,000 crore in size) is growing at around 20% per annum.
Trent, owned by Tata, has launched a new ethnic wear brand Samoh to increase its market share, as consumers splurge on fresh attire for every event. The new brand will help Trent to compete with Manyavar, and Aditya Birla in the ethnic wear space. The company also has two other fashion retail formats. Its flagship concept, Westside, caters to discerning customers who are aspirational and yet seek value for money. The other format, Zudio, with much smaller stores, operates in a more mass-priced segment. Besides, Trent runs a relatively new concept store, Utsa, which sells its own ethnic and indie wear private labels like Utsa, Zuba, Vark, and Diza.
A growth stock?
The management’s disciplined approach to growth, exemplified by the gradual scale-up of brands like Mohey and Twamev, has been instrumental in mitigating the risks associated with inflated working capital and excessive write-downs. This prudent strategy has safeguarded Vedant Fashions’ profitability and allowed it to maintain sustainable growth without compromising on scalability.
The company’s strong design capabilities with data-driven decision making (leading to no discounted sales), tech-driven supply chain, and auto replenishment model, exclusive vendor ecosystem, and franchise-based EBO expansion have helped scale up its business and achieve superior margins. Most brokerage houses give the stock a “buy” rating.
Manyavar’s decision to team up with some of the country’s top names like Virat Kohli, Ranveer Singh, and Kiara Advani (for Mohey) demonstrates its ambition to capture new markets and connect with a diverse customer base. Continuing the brand’s vision to associate with the best, it reinforced #DulhanWaliFeeling by looping in actress Kiara Advani in January 2023 as the new brand ambassador. With all of them on board, Vedant Fashions hopes to have a joyful journey in style!
By capitalising on their influence, Manyavar solidifies its position as a leading ethnic wear brand in India. But will the company live up to the investors’ expectations? For a growth investor, the answer is yes.
(Published in Economic Times)
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March 15, 2023
Faizan Haider, ET Bureau, 15 March 2023
Value apparel brands are set to grow in India.
The success of Tata Group’s Zudio that sells clothes below Rs 1,500 has prompted Reliance, Shoppers Stop and several global brands to enter the mass-priced retailing segment.
While Reliance Retail is planning to launch a value apparel format, likely to be named ‘Youth’ to compete directly with Tata’s Zudio and Landmark group-owned Max, Shoppers Stop is coming up with a mass-priced brand, internally called InTune, people in the know said.
Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail has been eyeing shoppers in tier-2 and -3 cities with Style Up, a similar format, while affordable French brand Kiabi is in talks with retail space providers and potential partners to enter the India market.
“Although there is a significant concentration of demand in the metro cities and tier-1 cities, these are also hypercompetitive markets. With economic growth spreading into the smaller cities and rising aspirations, especially among young consumers, there is an opportunity for brands to expand into these markets,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight.
“However, keeping price-sensitive segments in mind, companies are creating new labels and brands, rather than pulling down their existing brands’ selling price,” Dutta said.
Trent, the Tata Group company that houses retail brands such as Westside, Zudio and Landmark, had earlier said that while Westside accounted for 70% of its standalone business, Zudio had the potential to outpace the department chain due to the size of the opportunity in the value segment.
“While the value format can offer growth in smaller cities, in metro cities the retailers are trying to target youth through this format. The youth is also aware of the sustainability part and most of these brands are focusing on it,” said Shriram PM Monga, who cofounded retail consultancy firm SRED.
Both Reliance and Shoppers Stop are looking for 6,000-9,000 sq ft space at malls and high street for their new brands, said a person familiar with the development.
Experts said India’s consumption structure was skewed in the past over a narrow base of rich consumers accounting for a large chunk of the market. However, as the economy is broadening across many more cities and the impact is reaching further down the income ladder, the opportunity for value formats and value brands is expanding.
For Lifestyle International, its value brands Max and Easy Buy have already outpaced the department stores by sales, indicating that consumers are increasingly seeking either lower-priced merchandise or opting for global brands such as Zara and H&M for fashion apparel instead of department stores.
(Published in The Economic Times)
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October 11, 2022
SHARLEEN D’SOUZA, Business Standard
Mumbai, 10 October 2022
In early 1994, Titan started selling watches with precious stones in them and called this new line, Tanishq. It went on to become a separate division of Titan Company and grew into the country’s largest branded jewellery outfit, helping raise Titan’s sales to ~28,799 crore last financial year.
Thirteen years later, in 2007, Titan Eye+ set out to shake up the eyewear market. Though it also sells sunglasses of other brands, it is the prescription segment that Titan redefined and now, according to its website, has 550 Eye+ exclusive stores in 229 cities.
In 2017, Titan sought to do an encore in yet another large market in which the demand, as in jewellery and eyewear, was almost recession-proof and largely commoditised, leaving ample space for a pan-Indian branded chain. Thus was born Taneira, with an avowed intent to become the country’s largest organised saree retailer.
“Titan had earlier tried to organise the jewellery market through Tanishq, which is successful, and this is an attempt by Titan to organise the saree market,” Ambuj Narayan, chief executive officer (CEO) of Taneira, told Business Standard.
What is unsaid is that jewellery to sarees can also be seen as a horizontal brand extension, the two do go together on occasion.
Natural extension
The Indian wear market is a 5,000-year old segment estimated to be worth ₹50,000 crore a year and growing at a compound annual growth rate of 6 to 8 per cent. Sarees account for 80 to 85 per cent of its sales, with kurta sets, blouses, and lehengas comprising the rest. Yet, despite the size and growth, there is hardly any nationally known brand in this segment, with Nalli Silks being one of the notable exceptions.
Titan insiders say the company believed sarees to be a natural extension for it, given its past success with design-led lifestyle brands. They say the company organised an internal competition to see who came up with the best expansion strategy.
The result is a bouquet of design-differentiated products — primarily sarees and kurta sets — made from pure natural fabrics sourced from all over India. The company put together more than 100 craft clusters representing the diverse weaves. These include the Banarasi sarees from Uttar Pradesh, Kanjivaram from Tamil Nadu, Chanderi and Maheshwari from Madhya Pradesh, and Jamdani from West Bengal. The output is a mix of contemporary ethnic wear for women across life stages and occasions — college, office wear, party wear, festivals, and weddings, with bridal sarees being the speciality. The prices range from ₹1,000 to ₹2,00,000.
“The Tata group’s ventures have always been consistent with their approach — they stay the course beyond initial hiccups and eventually scale up the business. This is very much how Titan and Tanishq worked their way from initial struggles to eventually scale and become nationwide brands,” said retail expert Devangshu Dutta, CEO at Third Eyesight.
To say that Taneira has had initial hiccups would be an understatement. Three years after its launch, the Covid-induced lockdowns and restrictions brought the entire retail sector down to its knees.
Baptism by Covid
“Pandemic restrictions and high Covid-19 anxiety among the people kept socialising and weddings at a very low level of activity over the past couple of years. For Taneira, being a nascent brand with a yet-to-be-established customer base, the operating environment has been particularly tough,” Titan Company said in its FY22 annual report.
Taneira used this time to realign its strategy of connecting with customers. Thus, during 2021-22, which braved the second Covid wave in its first quarter — the dreadful Delta — and saw the third wave creep into its fourth quarter, sales at Titan’s Indian dress wear division grew by 55 per cent.
Narayan, the CEO, attributes this growth to initiatives that included staying close to the customer through e-commerce. “We really drove e-commerce out and reached out to our customers through video calling and try-at-home activities,” he said.
As consumer sentiment started to improve, Taneira already had two collections ready — wedding weave and the summer collection — which boosted sales. During 2021-22, it also increased its store count to 20 by adding six more. During the fourth quarter, Taneira sales rose 4 per cent.
Today, there are 27 Taneira stores in 11 cities across India. It plans to expand to Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities in the first phase and then to Tier 3 in the second phase of its store expansion.
However, Vishal Gutka, vice-president of research (consumer and retail sector) at Phillip Capital, said: “Taneira follows the same principle Titan used for Tanishq, where it entered an unorganised category and expanded it. But it is still early days to gauge how Taneira will pan out. Also, the company needs to give more clarity on the unit economics of each store.”
Weaving an expansion plan Titan’s annual report talks of a robust expansion plan for Taneira this financial year: “We plan to grow at an exponential rate and make our store count around 60 by the end of the current fiscal year and open overseas stores in markets having an Indian diaspora such as the US.” It adds that Taneira will become a more significant contributor to the overall revenue of Titan in the medium term.
At the heart of this grand ambition lies the humble weaver. Taneira now has close to 1,200 dedicated looms and has a programme called Weaver Shala to support them with technical expertise and in modernising their facilities. It has introduced frame looms along with basic workspace facilities for the weavers in collaboration with the localised weaver-led organisations.
The brand has closely worked with the weavers in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, and Champa, Chhattisgarh, and aims to take Weaver Shala to other parts of the country.
Taneira leverages Tanishq’s brand strength; mannequins at Tanishq stores, for instance, are dressed in Taneira sarees.
However, Narayan said Taneira and Tanishq will not be sold under the same roof because Titan wants to establish Taneira as a distinct brand in its own right.
(Published in the Business Standard)
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September 23, 2022
Sagar Malviya, The Economic Times
September 13, 2022
Uniqlo, Asia’s biggest clothing brand, has turned profitable in India in less than three years after it opened its first store in the country despite operating in a period marked by Covid-led lockdowns and restrictions.
The Japanese brand posted a net profit of ₹21.4 crore for 2021-22 compared to a loss of ₹36.1 crore in the previous year, according to business intelligence firm AltInfo. Its sales rose 63% year on year to ₹391.7 crore for the year to March 2022, a slower pace compared to FY21 when it clocked 86% sales growth on a low base.
Experts feel Uniqlo’s strategy of pricing its merchandise at least 20% higher than rivals Zara and H&M has helped it earn better margins despite inflationary pressures in terms of raw materials.
“The market is not easy and turning profitable at a time when most rivals are spending aggressively is a good indication of success. As an international brand, they (Uniqlo) are able to get good locations and are preferred tenants, which helps in generating sales, especially in top cities,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, a strategy consulting firm. “However, the pricing is a bit premium and until they are able to source locally, selling products at a right value for the market will remain challenging.”
The Japanese brand opened its first door in the country in September 2019, but stringent lockdown measures announced in March 2020 to contain the Covid-19 outbreak delayed its store expansion plans, restricting its store count to about seven outlets so far.
Uniqlo has said India is one of the most priority markets where consumers are increasingly shifting from ‘fast-fashion’ to long-lasting essentials and functional wear. “India is an important and very big priority market,” Tomohiko Sei, CEO of Uniqlo India told ET in June.
(Published in The Economic Times)
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July 8, 2022
Akash Podishetty & Krishna Veera Vanamali, Business Standard
New Delhi, 8 July 2022
India’s $900 billion retail market has emerged as one of the most dynamic industries and is expected to reach anywhere between $1.3-$1.5 trillion by 2025. The organized retail is seen gaining 15% market share in the overall retail space, while food & grocery and apparel and lifestyle may account for 80% of India’s retail market by 2025.
Large market offers big opportunities. And it looks like Reliance Retail has seized it, with its massive omni-channel retail play of physical stores, B2B with kiranas and e-commerce.
The company went on an acquisition spree and partnerships in the last three years, adding to its portfolio some of the biggest names, including Hamleys, Dunzo, Zivame etc.
It has also partnered with famous global retail chain 7-Eleven. Catering to India’s affluent consumers, Reliance, meanwhile, houses some of the most iconic brands such as Versace, Armani Exchange, GAP, GAS, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors among others. The premium segment has become one of the fastest growing categories.
Also firming up its inorganic play, the company is planning to acquire dozens of niche local consumer brands to build a formidable consumer goods business.
Arvind Singhal, Chairman and Managing Director, Technopak Advisors says, there’s focus on physical retail expansion. Reliance is looking to cater to both price conscious and brand conscious customers, while trying to capture as much of the private consumption market as possible, he says.
Reliance Retail’s competitors are nowhere close to even put up a fight. The company has over 15,000 offline stores across categories, compared with DMart’s 294 stores or Aditya Birla Fashion’s 3,468 outlets.
Reliance retail’s revenue has grown five times in the last five years and the core retail revenue of $18 billion is greater than competitors combined, according to a Bernstein report.
Speaking to Business Standard, Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight, says, Reliance wants a decent share of Indian consumers’ wallet. From that perspective, Reliance still has a long way to go, he says. As consumer preferences evolve, Reliance too should adapt.
An undisputed leader in the domestic market, the aim of Reliance, according to Mukesh Ambani, is to become one of the top 10 retailers globally. Part of this bet is based on the premise that incomes and consumption power of Indians will increase across the board in coming years. However, could the uneven recovery that different segments of the population have seen stop the pie from growing larger and prove to be a dampener for Ambani’s ambitions?
(Published in Business Standard)
