Devangshu Dutta
August 8, 2006
Mall Mania, Mall Madness – alliterate as you will – it’s a phenomenon that is certainly taking over the newsprint, airtime and, quite possibly, your neighbourhood.
A study published in 2005 estimated that by 2007 over 360 shopping centres would be operational around the country, with approximately 90 million square feet. A meagre increase of 0.08 sq. ft. in per capita shopping space doesn’t seem like much in a country of a billion-plus people.
But most of it is concentrated around the big cities – Delhi and Mumbai account for more than half of the total space projected, with the other metros and mini-metros such as Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad etc. taking the total up to 90% of the space.
One may argue that money (real estate development) is only following the money (consumers) – after all, there are more consumers and higher incomes in these major urban centres.
But why would mall developers expect Delhi’s consumers to suddenly switch en-masse to shopping in Gurgaon, where 6 malls are already active in a short distance of about a kilometre, 3-4 more under hectic construction in the same area and several more scattered around that suburb? Or why do Mumbai’s developers expect people to drive several kilometres from the suburbs on a regular basis to the centre of town to grace only their shopping centre? It is only such expectations that can explain the gold rush mentality that is overpopulating certain areas with shopping centres and malls.
While per-capita availability of A-grade shopping real estate looks really low, in certain areas we foresaw oversupply, with developers thinking in terms of “property” rather than as retail space managers.
Most shopping centre developers have carried out only cursory studies on the customer catchments that their tenants will be expected to live-off. As a result, conversion of footfall into sales is low for the tenants, except for food-courts, which are benefiting from the window-shoppers rounding off a day or an evening of roaming the malls with a meal. There is a lack of differentiation in product and service offer between the shopping centres and, with nothing distinctive on offer, repeat visits and – more importantly – repeat purchases are a challenge.
Developers in smaller towns seem to be following the same model, scaling up space or scaling it down based on the capital cost vs. expected capital gain and tenancy income. They are pitching for much the same brands as tenants as the developers in the bigger cities.
There is competition for customer traffic between the shopping centres and large stores (such as Mumbai’s newly opened Hypercity, across the street from InOrbit Mall, both developed by the Rahejas), between the shopping centres and the traditional high street, and between large format stores and speciality malls.
For the most part shopping centre development in India in the recent years has been seen as an aspiration to be fulfilled – hence, the most important factors have been the size of the shopping centre, quality of fixtures, marquee tenants who can provide the glamour or the legitimacy). The focus has been more on the “positioning”.
The business will begin maturing and will begin taking developmental leaps forward when centres are seen as commercial infrastructure to be planned with the end-consumer in mind, and to be serviced over a certain lifetime.
Until then, we can look forward to announcements of many hundreds of shopping centres, the launch of a few hundred, and the conversion of many of those into uses other than as shopping centres within a few months or years of their launch. And for investors also it might be a game of Roulette rather than Patience.
admin
June 30, 2006
By VISHAL KRISHNA
Businessworld
Issue Dated 30 June-06 July 2009
If you were hoping to see a Wal-Mart store in your locality soon, you may be disappointed. The government has made it clear that it is against the idea of 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in front-end multi-brand retailing. “The Congress government has come to power by supporting the farmer, the middleman in mandis and the kirana store. Now aiding modern retail will be the last thing on their mind,” says a Mumbai-based retail analyst, who did not want to be named.
Even if front-end retail stays domestic, most companies are struggling to become profitable. And it is not just about the money. For the moment, the retail industry continues its search for cash and hopes to keep expansion plans going despite heavy losses. Kishore Biyani’s Pantaloon Retail hopes to add 2 million sq. ft by the end of this year. Similarly, Aditya Birla Retail has just announced plans to add another 150 stores.
“The quandary lies in getting FDI, which is needed to service a large presence through an efficient supply chain strategy,” says Ajay D’Souza, head of Crisil Research in Mumbai.
For suppliers such as fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, only 5 per cent of their sales is through organised retail, the rest is through kirana stores.
“The distribution system in India is largely built by FMCG companies to support the kirana network, where wholesalers remain strong,” says Devangshu Dutta, CEO of Third Eyesight, a retail consultancy firm in New Delhi.
Modern retailers also burnt their fingers trying to source fresh food directly from farmers. “People can go to (their neighbourhood) kiranas and get their vegetables at the same price as that offered in a retail store, so food did not become a driver in retail stores,” says Pinakiranjan Mishra, partner and national leader for retail at Ernst & Young in Mumbai.
Building a supply chain has not been a strength among organised retail players, and so it is back to sourcing from the vegetable mandi.
And that is perhaps what FDI in retail can do: bring in outside expertise on building and integrating supply chains with the attendant quality and pricing that will persuade consumers to go into supermarkets.
But politics intervenes. The inability to source directly from farmers is constrained by land ownership laws that stand in the way of farm aggregation. “Firms cannot aggregate land from farmers to create a farm-to-fork connect,” says a finance ministry official who did not wish to be named. “The government fears that if companies own large tracts of farm land, then they would be able to command food prices and production.” And let us not forget the voter base that mandis and kirana stores represent.
For the moment, the FDI hopes of organised retailers seem to be quashed.
admin
June 22, 2006
BHANU PANDE
The Economic Times, DELHI, 22 June 2006
For a man from Dehradun who ran a family-owned bookstore called English Book Depot, it’s been quite a journey to the point where his Book Café chain now has tie-ups with retailers like Café Coffee Day, Nirula’s, Barista and Subway. Sandeep Dutt, who’s effectively used co-branding and co-location strategic tie-ups to set up a 20-store book retail chain, says, “We are in the business of brewing knowledge.”
He’s observed that there are many consumers – aged anywhere from 15 to 40 – whose need for leisure and a great place to browse through books, isn’t being met adequately in the existing book retail scenario. “They find it difficult to get good books, and look for a place to spend their leisure hours if they do find them,” he explains.
That’s the need gap Book Café wants to fill. Dutt is certain that by concentrating on this single segment in various locations, his chain will be able to deliver a significantly superior experience. “Selling within espresso bars and other such co-locations that have a footfall of over 100-plus customers in a day will help achieve growth in book sales,” adds Dutt.
As a first move, he set out to sell a tempting retail model of sharing common premises with a co-retailer, while building nationwide franchise operations. What began as an experiment in Dehradun with Barista is now being replicated in Ludhiana, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Delhi, Lucknow, Kanpur, Agra and other cities in North India.
At every meeting, Dutt highlights the fact that sharing common retail space (with clearly demarcated sales areas) reduces expenses considerably in terms of cost of search, negotiation and property development. “It offers tremendous leeway to pick up strategically-placed properties, which single retailers would otherwise find prohibitively expensive,” says Dutt.
And it helps that co-retailers tap a common audience. For instance, a tie-up with Café Coffee Day helps Book Café dip into the pockets of those who walk in for coffee. In return, a bookshop adds value to the customer’s plain vanilla coffee experience. “Café reports sale growth of 50-100% by adding a book shop,” beams Dutt. Besides, existing book shops with a café added have reported sales zooming up by 200%.
It seems to be an attractive proposition: “We are opening at six more locations in four months,” declares Dutt. But some warn that this strategy might lead to the dilution of the Book Café brand. According to Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight, a Delhi-based retail consultancy, placing the book store at the back of the food store may not be a smart move. “There’s no Book Café branding upfront,” he adds.
“The brand may be subsuming itself with that of its co-retailer and that may not be a good idea in the long run.”
To counter that secondary status, EBD is simultaneously rolling out standalone Book Cafés, through franchisees. “The co-locational strategy has not only given us a quick and cost effective entry, but also the confidence of going it alone,” says Dutt.
Dutt has also chalked out plans to satisfy partners who want exclusivity or brand sync – while willing to share location. For instance, two coffee chains (let’s say, Barista and Café Coffee Day) may want to share premises with a bookstore, but not necessarily the same brand. The company is working on a portfolio of book retailing brands – such as Kitab Café, along with the current Book Café.
So far, even though many stores are yet to break-even, the chain has logged a turnover of Rs 2.5 crore for the year 2004-05. Dutt says that the average break-even time frame is about 18 months. Each outlet is doing about Rs 1.5 lakh per month, with a few even touching Rs 4 lakh. Book Café wants to hit some 330 small format stores (300-500 sq ft) in five years and 20 large format (1,000-1,500 sq ft) stores in four years.
Devangshu Dutta
May 18, 2006
When I am at the receiving end of expectations, business plans and such like, of companies that are looking to ride the current retail boom in India, one thing stands out, and scares me the most: the opening slides, paragraphs or pages that are devoted to the “opportunity presented by India’s booming middle class and its rising income”.
In the previous part to this column (“The Case of the Missing Millions“, 27 April 2006), we concluded that for most international companies looking at India, the potential target market was in the region of 18-19 million people, or over 3 million households. When international companies look at the “middle class” they may be looking at annual household incomes adjusted for PPP in the region of US$ 40,000 (Rs. 5 Lakhs, in absolute terms, not adjusted for PPP), and this population number is what appears on the radar.
Clearly, this less than a tenth of the figures around which many new businesses are being launched in the hottest retail market globally (as global comparative studies are stating). 200 million, 300 million – take your pick – they’re all in the mythical range!
So is it time to put out a missing persons alert for the hundreds of millions of so-called “middle class consumers”, on whose back the current retail boom is to be built?
Hang on – the trick is in changing the frame of reference. Let’s first define what the characteristics of the middle class should be.
In my opinion a good starting point is a simple one – look for a segment that is on the middle of the income scale.
Most marketers and their reference guides live in a high-income urban India paradigm (read, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore). Passing out of even a second-tier business school today, starting salaries can easily be over Rs. 20,000 a month. When you get into the middle-management segment, metropolitan salaries in the private sector can easily be Rs. 35,000 – 50,000 a month. This may not sound like much money when you live life from the Delhi-Mumbai-Bangalore paradigm, but trust me, it is still a very large sum of money as you go further down the list of cities and towns in India. In those towns and in semi-urban and rural India, the rupee goes a much longer way.
However, the income scale can be defined subjectively by different people.
So, to this evaluation I would add one other important attribute – this middle segment should be a substantial proportion of the total population. Clearly, a population that is only 2 to 3 per cent of the total is still very much at the narrow tip of the pyramid. We definitely need to move further down the income scale to find the real middle class.
The next annual household income range defined by NCAER is Rs. 2 Lakhs to Rs. 5 Lakhs. Now it starts to get interesting. In this income segment we are talking about approximately 9 million households or a little under 50 million people. An income of Rs. 2 Lakhs (US$ 4,500 in absolute terms) is equivalent to a little over US$ 16,000 by PPP, which is well below middle-class standards in developed economies. However, in India an income of Rs. 16,700 per month brings a number of aspirational and discretionary purchases within reach. This size of population is about the same, or larger, than many countries in Europe and will grow to 70-80 million by the end of the decade.
However, as far as my criterion of significant proportion is concerned, this still doesn’t cut it – we’re still only in the range of 6 per cent of the total population. We need to move further down the income scale, to the Rs. 90,000-200,000 annual household income range.
Bingo!
NCAER identifies this segment as having over 41 million households – that is over 225 million people – about 22 per cent of the total population. Large towns (population of over 500,000) have about 30 per cent of this population, while rural India has about half of this income group.
Earning between Rs. 7,500 a month to over Rs. 16,000 a month, this is the population that, in my opinion, is the real growth engine for the great Indian retail dream. This population has discretionary income, and yet it spends with discretion, if you will pardon the pun. It is a population that is only just beginning to be touched by cashless spending, a population that is beginning to appreciate the comforts and conveniences of modern retail, and its power as a driver of markets. It is possibly more firmly rooted in Indian traditions than aspiring to move to western standards. It is a population that is probably discovering the benefits of investing as much as it is the joys of spending thus reducing the free cash available.
Many brands are ending up planning for the 150-200 million real middle class population, while offering products and prices that are more appropriate for the ersatz “middle-class” of 15-20 million.
Consumer markets are structured around obsolescence, replacement and repeat purchases. If your product fits well within the price-value equation for repeat purchases, you have a winner. If you don’t, then what you get is a bunch of occasional purchases from most of your consumers, with long replacement cycles (or even, no repurchase).
The end result is the sales plateau that is the characteristic of so many brands in India.
If you want to volumes, prepare a product and price offer that makes sense to the real Indian middle class. The small shampoo packs make sense, the “chhota recharge” on the mobile phones makes sense. Does your product?
The missing millions aren’t really missing – they’re just invisible through our Delhi-Mumbai-Bangalore upper income blinkers. It’s time to take off the blinkers.
admin
May 18, 2006
By Devangshu Dutta (Coulmn in The Financial Express on 18 May 2006)
When I am at the receiving end of expectations, business plans and such like, of companies that are looking to ride the current retail boom in India, one thing stands out, and scares me the most: the opening slides, paragraphs or pages that are devoted to the “opportunity presented by India’s booming middle class and its rising income”.
In the previous part to this column (“The Case of the Missing Millions”, 27 April 2006), we concluded that for most international companies looking at India, the potential target market was in the region of 18-19 million people, or over 3 million households. When international companies look at the “middle class” they may be looking at annual household incomes adjusted for PPP in the region of US$ 40,000 (Rs. 5 Lakhs, in absolute terms, not adjusted for PPP), and this population number is what appears on the radar.
Clearly, this less than a tenth of the figures around which many new businesses are being launched in the hottest retail market globally (as global comparative studies are stating). 200 million, 300 million – take your pick – they’re all in the mythical range!
So is it time to put out a missing persons alert for the hundreds of millions of so-called “middle class consumers”, on whose back the current retail boom is to be built?
Hang on – the trick is in changing the frame of reference. Let’s first define what the characteristics of the middle class should be.
In my opinion a good starting point is a simple one – look for a segment that is on the middle of the income scale.
Most marketers and their reference guides live in a high-income urban India paradigm (read, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore). Passing out of even a second-tier business school today, starting salaries can easily be over Rs. 20,000 a month. When you get into the middle-management segment, metropolitan salaries in the private sector can easily be Rs. 35,000 – 50,000 a month. This may not sound like much money when you live life from the Delhi-Mumbai-Bangalore paradigm, but trust me, it is still a very large sum of money as you go further down the list of cities and towns in India. In those towns and in semi-urban and rural India, the rupee goes a much longer way.
However, the income scale can be defined subjectively by different people.
So, to this evaluation I would add one other important attribute – this middle segment should be a substantial proportion of the total population. Clearly, a population that is only 2 to 3 per cent of the total is still very much at the narrow tip of the pyramid. We definitely need to move further down the income scale to find the real middle class.
The next annual household income range defined by NCAER is Rs. 2 Lakhs to Rs. 5 Lakhs. Now it starts to get interesting. In this income segment we are talking about approximately 9 million households or a little under 50 million people. An income of Rs. 2 Lakhs (US$ 4,500 in absolute terms) is equivalent to a little over US$ 16,000 by PPP, which is well below middle-class standards in developed economies. However, in India an income of Rs. 16,700 per month brings a number of aspirational and discretionary purchases within reach. This size of population is about the same, or larger, than many countries in Europe and will grow to 70-80 million by the end of the decade.
However, as far as my criterion of significant proportion is concerned, this still doesn’t cut it – we’re still only in the range of 6 per cent of the total population. We need to move further down the income scale, to the Rs. 90,000-200,000 annual household income range.
Bingo!
NCAER identifies this segment as having over 41 million households – that is over 225 million people – about 22 per cent of the total population. Large towns (population of over 500,000) have about 30 per cent of this population, while rural India has about half of this income group.
Earning between Rs. 7,500 a month to over Rs. 16,000 a month, this is the population that, in my opinion, is the real growth engine for the great Indian retail dream. This population has discretionary income, and yet it spends with discretion, if you will pardon the pun. It is a population that is only just beginning to be touched by cashless spending, a population that is beginning to appreciate the comforts and conveniences of modern retail, and its power as a driver of markets. It is possibly more firmly rooted in Indian traditions than aspiring to move to western standards. It is a population that is probably discovering the benefits of investing as much as it is the joys of spending thus reducing the free cash available.
Many brands are ending up planning for the 150-200 million real middle class population, while offering products and prices that are more appropriate for the ersatz “middle-class” of 15-20 million.
Consumer markets are structured around obsolescence, replacement and repeat purchases. If your product fits well within the price-value equation for repeat purchases, you have a winner. If you don’t, then what you get is a bunch of occasional purchases from most of your consumers, with long replacement cycles (or even, no repurchase).
The end result is the sales plateau that is the characteristic of so many brands in India.
If you want to volumes, prepare a product and price offer that makes sense to the real Indian middle class. The small shampoo packs make sense, the “chhota recharge” on the mobile phones makes sense. Does your product?
The missing millions aren’t really missing – they’re just
invisible through our Delhi-Mumbai-Bangalore upper income blinkers.
It’s time to take off the blinkers.
The author is chief executive of Third Eyesight. (
www.thirdeyesight.in
)
