India’s economy is in focus globally, and is also at an inflection point.

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Faizan Haidar, ET Bureau
Jan 18, 2023

Tension has built up between retailers and malls across India, with leading malls planning to increase rentals every year instead of the current arrangement of every three years.

Industry insiders said large retailers are opposing the move given the number of stores they operate. Malls usually sign nine-year agreements with the retailers with a 15% increase in rentals every three years. If rents increase 5% each year, retailers will have to shell out about 17% in three years.

“It does not make any sense because we sign our properties for a long term, which is generally 12-15 years. An annual escalation in rent will not be viable and we would want to not go ahead with such short-term demands,” said a chief executive at a departmental store chain, who did not wish to be identified.

Rajendra Kalkar, president-west at Phoenix Mills, which operates more than half-dozen malls in Mumbai, Pune and Bengaluru, and in some tier-2 cities, said rentals are revised as per the originally agreed terms of the agreement. But in new agreements, the issue of annual rent revision is being negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

Another retailer said on condition of anonymity that brands invest a lot in fit-outs and annual rental hikes will make the business unviable. “A brand has to manage so many stores that annual hikes will lead to a chaotic situation where every month brands will have to keep rental hikes in mind,” said the retailer.

Other malls such as those of DLF, Nexus and Oberoi, Select City Walk and Vegas are also mulling over the issue, said industry executives.

“We have started something like staggered rental so that we can hike the rental every year. However, in the first year. we don’t put much pressure because the brand is trying to settle in. But once they start doing well, we push for a rental hike,” said the director of a leading mall, who did not wish to be identified.

Single-brand retailers said the demand is strong and they may be able to absorb rent inflation, if at all it goes through.

Mall developers said they will push for a 20% rental hike in three years given the inflation and cost of raw materials.

“The cost of everything has gone up and we will have to put it in a fresh condition to sustain. Retailers are doing good and they should not be hesitant in absorbing the hike,” said another mall developer.

India’s top ten listed retailers, including Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Shoppers Stop, Jubilant Foodworks and Tata Trent, have together saved more than Rs 1,500 crore in rents over the past two financial years, after negotiating discounts with malls and other landlords for the lockdown period.

“Covid impacted both mall developers and retailers, and mall developers may possibly be trying to recover from those lockdown losses,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight. “Where there’s a dearth of quality retail spaces, well-managed malls may be able to negotiate more strongly for a frequent hike. But both retailers and malls need to come together for a symbiotic solution that works for both.”

Rentals have now returned to pre-Covid levels, as malls have returned to normal business and their tenants are seeing healthy footfall. According to ICRA, rental income reached 80% of pre-Covid levels during 2021-22 and is expected to surpass 2019-20 levels by 4-6% in the current fiscal.

“We have seen double-digit growth and understand that it was an unfavourable time for mall operators during Covid. So during renewal, we may accept rent escalation if we are not able to hold it. However, we don’t expect any adverse impact on our financials,” said Satyen Momaya, CEO of Celio, a French apparel brand.

Rental incomes have improved at a faster pace after the second wave of the pandemic, with recovery at 74% during the second quarter of 2021-22, as against 34% a year ago, and reaching 102% of pre-Covid levels in the second half of the current fiscal, said ICRA.

“Malls are investing heavily in events and every month there are two-three events to ensure footfall. With these initiatives, the mall expects sales to increase and the retailer to pay higher rent,” said a Kolkata-based mall developer, who did not wish to be identified.

ET Bureau, Dec 23, 2022

Reliance Retail Ventures, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries and the holding company of the group’s retail businesses, signed definitive agreements to acquire German wholesaler Metro AG’s India business – Metro Cash & Carry India-for a total cash consideration of ₹2,850 crore.

As part of the deal, Reliance will get 31 large format stores in 21 cities as well as the realty portfolio that includes six store-occupied properties, 3,500 staff and Metro’s 3 million B2B customers, of which 1 million are frequent buyers. The deal is subject to regulatory and other conditions and is expected to be completed by March 2023, the companies said on Thursday. ET had first reported in its edition dated Oct 15 that Reliance is the frontrunner to acquire Metro’s India business.

Metro AG said in a release that the India business valuation implies a sales multiple of 0.6x based on sales in the year ended September and takes into account lease rental and other related liabilities of e150 million (₹1,320 crore). Metro India generated sales of ₹7,700 crore (926 million euros), its best ever, in the year ended September.

Metro expects a transaction gain of about 150 million euros and an earnings per share (EPS) gain, once the deal closes.

The move will help Reliance consolidate its presence in the B2B trade segment, which it calls new commerce and is among its next big growth drivers, intensifying competition with Udaan, Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart. Reliance owns and runs the country’s largest retail business. All Metro India stores will continue to operate under the Metro brand during an agreed transition period.

Reliance Retail Ventures director Isha Ambani said the acquisition of Metro India aligns with its new commerce strategy of building a unique model of shared prosperity through active collaboration with small merchants and enterprises.

“We believe that Metro India’s healthy assets combined with our deep understanding of the Indian merchant and kirana ecosystem will help offer a differentiated value proposition to small businesses in India,” she said.

Metro AG chief executive officer Steffen Greubel said it is selling a growing and profitable wholesale business at the right time. “Indian trade industry is currently experiencing strong consolidation and disproportionate growth in ecommerce, including the B2B segment,” he said. “Due to the market dynamics, a sizable investment would be required to further grow the business. Therefore, now is the right time to use the momentum and open a new chapter for Metro India.”

Metro said it aims for a leading market position in wholesale. Due to increasing market consolidation, accelerated digitalisation and intense competition, Metro India’s operations don’t fit Metro’s core growth strategy, it said. Abneesh Roy, executive director, institutional equities at Nuvama, said the price to sales ratio is 0.37, which seems fair, given the B2B segment is a low-margin business.

Reliance will gain a significant jump in revenue and established locations that it can expand or optimise under its own branding and formats, said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight. “The additional shelf space will also be very welcome for its own FMCG brands,” he said.

(Published in The Economic Times)

Metro AG global chief executive officer Steffen Greubel said the company is at a “very advanced” level of discussions on its India business, suggesting for the first time that it could be looking at an exit from the country soon.

“We are very advanced in the process regarding India and are at a certain maturity level in the process. It’s too early to share any information, but we have discussed it greatly,” Greubel told analysts when asked if he is looking at a possible withdrawal from India and the status of talks. “We are very deep in the (sale) process in India,” he said last week while announcing annual earnings.

The German wholesaler grew its Indian business by 21% to $982 million during the year ended September, as per its latest annual report.

Last month, ET reported that Reliance had agreed in principle to buy Metro AG’s cash-and-carry wholesale India business for ₹4,000-4,500 crore.

Its unit Reliance Retail is already the biggest grocery retailer in the country with over 2,400 stores across formats while Metro operates 31 wholesale stores in India with seven of them on company owned land in prime locations. The company hasn’t publicly stated that it’s looking to leave India. Metro would be the second big international wholesaler retailer to exit India, if this happens. French retailer Carrefour wound up its India business in 2014 after struggling with sales for four years.

Globally, Metro is the world’s fourth-largest retailer by revenue. In India, it doesn’t sell directly to consumers and is an organised wholesaler or cash-and-carry operator that sells merchandise to local kirana stores, hotels and catering firms.

It decided to put the India business on the block as part of a global decision to exit the country due to heightened competition, a tougher regulatory environment and the lack of a level playing field between local and foreign retail companies, industry executives said.

Experts said the difficult European and global economic environment, regulatory restrictions in India, tough competition from domestic Indian groups and thin margins in the B2B business in India may have led Metro to focus on growing its core markets in Europe.

“Though India is, indeed, a long-term strategic market for companies looking at global growth, whether retail or B2B, not every business model from other geographies can be successfully transplanted or rapidly scaled in India, and Metro’s business footprint in India may be far smaller than they may have expected in the two decades of presence here,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight. The choice to be present in different countries is always a dynamic one for global retailers and entry or withdrawal is driven by individual strategies, rather than solely on the merit of the market itself, he said.

“In September, the management board reported on the current status of the audit of strategic options for Metro India,” according to the annual report.

Overseas investment in offline trade has been a tricky issue, despite India allowing 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in wholesale trade on a cash-and-carry basis. Metro was one of the first companies to enter the segment in India in 2003. Lobby groups representing small Indian retailers have accused overseas retailers of violating FDI rules, which the foreign companies have consistently denied. Some trade lobbies have complained to the government that a few global wholesalers have been flouting FDI rules by selling to consumers directly, which is not allowed as per current regulations.

(Published in The Economic Times)

Christina Moniz, Financial Express

December 12, 2022

This year has seen the entry of several brands into the plant-based meat category, from large players like ITC and Tata Consumer Products to newer brands like Licious. Mock meat, a growing trend especially in Western markets, is a plant-based protein processed to resemble and taste like meat. From vegetarian ‘chicken nuggets’ and sausages to meat-free ‘mutton’ seekh kebabs, most Indian players use ingredients like soya and jackfruit to mimic the texture and taste of meat.

The Indian vegan meat market is rather small currently — estimated to be around Rs 250-300 crore. But consider the potential: About 41 percent of respondents in India identified as either vegan, vegetarian, or pescatarian in a 2021 survey. A report by Wazir Advisors estimates that this category will grow 8-10 times to reach Rs 3,500 crore in 2026.

Looking from a global perspective too, this new category cannot be written off as just a blip. Worldwide, the consumption of such meat substitutes grew from 133 million kg in 2013 to 470 million kg in 2020.

While the projections are fantastic for this market, it is still very small within the entire food category, points out Sandeep Singh, co-founder of Blue Tribe Foods, a two-year-old start-up in this segment. What is needed to grow the category, he believes, is innovation. “The food items need to move beyond burgers and nuggets to appeal to the Indian non-vegetarian consumer. For example, someone needs to create a good chicken tikka masala or a good kheema to attract the Indian palate,” he explains. Earlier this year, star couple Virat Kohli and Anushka Sharma announced their investment in Blue Tribe Foods, a move that has boosted awareness for the brand and category, says Singh.

Variety & cost

Tata Consumer Products, which launched its vegan meat brand, Simply Better, in July this year is tapping into the trend of consumers moving towards healthier and sustainable lifestyle choices. Deepika Bhan, president, packaged foods (India), Tata Consumer Products, maintains that the market holds great growth potential. “Over 70% of the Indian population is flexitarian (consumes both vegetarian and non-vegetarian food). Surveys also show that over 73% of Indians today are protein deficient. These data points signify untapped potential in the plant protein segment. The consumer cohort, which is aware of the health and environmental benefits of plant protein, is likely to expand to a more diverse audience seeking to supplement their diet with alternate, plant-based meat,” remarks Bhan.

Cost is a factor hindering growth. Currently, the pricing for plant-based meat is 1.5 times the price of real meat products. “For premium consumers, price is not a challenge but to gain scale and reach the masses, pricing needs to be more attractive,” observes Devangshu Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight. Indians have for decades consumed soya nuggets and products as a source of protein and as a meat alternative, but brands today are targeting urban consumers who are not price sensitive. “The consumers that brands are targeting are influenced by trends in Western markets and adopting veganism for ethical or health reasons,” adds Dutta.

Another consumption trend that is unique to Indian consumers is that there are around 100-odd non-meat eating days annually, on account of religious or cultural occasions. Meat and seafood company Licious is targeting these consumers on non-meat eating days with its newly launched vegan meat brand, UnCrave. Simeran Bhasin, business head, alternative protein, Licious, states that all brands in the category are still on a journey to improve their offerings . “Our plan is to create relevance before aiming to take a share in it. Eating is believing, and we want more of our consumers to sample our alternative protein offerings. So, we send samples of UnCrave along with Licious food deliveries to encourage consumption and drive brand awareness,” explains Bhasin.

While UnCrave is currently present in only four cities (Mumbai, Delhi, Pune and Bangalore), she asserts that there is a market for the brand in non-metros too and expects the brand to reach the top 20 markets by the end of the next fiscal.

(Published in Financial Express)