Gentlemen, Fasten Your Seatbelts

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February 16, 2004

The warm-up over, India’s retail industry is revving up for its most exciting phase ever. (By M. Rajshekhar)

Consider this: through the 1990s, organised retail in India added just 1 million sq. ft. of space a year. The pace picked up from 2001 onwards. But estimates have it that in 2003 alone, a breathtaking 10 million sq. ft. was picked up by this fledgling industry. If you thought that was heady, think again. The most exciting phase for the retail industry lies ahead.

Over the next three years, a confluence of events will push organised retail into a new orbit. One, a series of glitzy malls has already begun to redefine the shopping habits of urban Indians. Some call it “shoppertainment” or shopping and entertainment – and it’s quickly catching on. But guess what? Even till last year, the number of malls in operation was barely in double digits. This year at least 50 new malls – of 100,000 sq. ft. size and above – are slated to go into business in 2004. Retail consultants KSA Technopak estimates that another 200 malls will come up in 2005 and 2006. “In all, 40 million sq. ft. of organised retail space will enter the market in the next 3-4 years,” says Devangshu Dutta of Third Eyesight, a retail and sourcing consultancy.

Two, the sudden ramp up in retail real estate could create over-supply. After all, not every mall owner will find it easy to seek tenants. That, in turn, could bring down property prices. And suddenly, experts reckon, the new economics could make it attractive for a new set of players to join the party, especially retail formats like furniture and consumer durables, which need a lot of space. So if apparel and grocery led Phase I of development, new categories like furniture, pharmacy and fast food could help propel growth in the near future.

Three, the early birds – retail chains like Shoppers’ Stop, FoodWorld, Lifestyle and Pantaloons – are now well past the experimentation stage, and are findings ways to take their growth trajectories higher. Kishore Biyani, managing director, Pantaloon Retail, agrees: “There is a new sense of confidence in every Indian retailer. We now have formats that have been tried and tested.” But that’s a claim that very few other retailers can rightly make. While most of them have been largely risk averse and stuck to Western models like department stores and supermarkets, Biyani has tried innovating to discover what he loves to call the “pan-Indian model of retail”. In 2002, after much trial and error, he appeared to have hit upon one such winning formula: the Big Bazaar hypermarket model. Today, the chain of seven Big Bazaar outlets contributes close to Rs. 4000 million to Pantaloon Retail’s topline. Biyani says he plans to set up nine more by 2005.

It isn’t just Pantaloons though. Much of this rapid scale-up across the sector is helped partly by the fact that organised retail is no longer starved of funds for expansion. The older players are generating more substantive cash flows than ever before. Also, says Bala Deshpande, director (investments), ICICI Ventures, “The favourable stockmarket performances of Trent and Pantaloons have helped loosen the purse strings of promoters and banks.” RPG has also begun diverting its investments from Old Economy ventures to retail. Shoppers’ Stop, in fact, is readying for an IPO this year. Even Pantaloon, which scared away most investors with its over-aggressive investment strategy, is now finding takers in the market.

So what’s in store? Experts say that the current land grab will hit a higher pitch. Growth will attract newer players and fuel more growth. KSA Technopak CEO Arvind Singhal says: “The share of organised retail in the total retail pie is likely to grow from 2% now to 5-6% by 2007.” In their latest Indian Retail Review, real estate consultants Knight Frank presage a share of 20% by 2010, perhaps a shade too optimistically.

But things are likely to hot up once global retailers can set up shop in India. Current FDI norms don’t allow global retailers to step in, except for cash-and-carry formats, franchisee operations and special licences. Opinions differ on when the government will open the door. But even die-hard opponents of FDI concede that they won’t be able to stall the move for more than two years. The €52-billion German giant Metro AG has entered in the cash-and-carry mode. French hypermarket chain Carrefour has set up a representative office to develop an entry strategy. There are several others tapping their feet outside the door, trying to listen in closely.

Indian retailers are fully aware that they have about two years. Hence the hurry to ramp up fast. The frenetic pace of expansion will, of course, throw up a new set of challenges.

What will these be? Come, grab a ringside view of this fast-changing battlescape.

   
(From BusinessWorld, issue dated 16 February 2004)

Press Quotes from IMAGES – Coverage of IMAGES FASHION FORUM, February 2004, New Delhi

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February 13, 2004

Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive of Third Eyesight, a retail and fashion services firm, said. “Retailing in India is set for the next big leap – what began as forward integration for manufacturers such as Bombay Dyeing and Raymond in the 1960s, has almost suddenly reached a stage where even smaller companies, individual entrepreneurs and real estate owners are willing to build organisation and structure into their businesses.

“The availability of quality real estate in the form of shopping malls is probably the biggest enabler of the organisation of retail business. From small 300-400 sq. ft. outlets in disorganised high streets, one now has the option of opening a well-furnished store in the well-equipped environment of a mall.

Highlighting the challenges ahead, he pointed out that, “The biggest challenge for the mall owners is going to be to find enough different brands to fill the space, so that the differentiation between the malls is maintained. Otherwise the 35-40 million sq. ft. that is coming up will end up looking the same all over, and one can foresee a bloodbath in the mall business. The challenge for retailers, on the other hand is to develop people at all levels, from frontline sales staff to middle-rung and senior managers to run the retail business. Their skills need to be of global-best standards, to allow indigenous retailers to not only compete with foreign retailers in India, but also to enter markets outside the country.

“Indians have a long history of being merchants of fashion, and moreover, of being able to build powerful brands informally – we need to combine these capabilities to create a truly vibrant fashion and retail industry where innovative and uniquely Indian brands are created, that are world-class and globally accepted. Outsiders have long appreciated the Indian industry’s strengths – the industry now needs to realise these itself.

Speaking about malls presenting competition to high street retailing, he commented, “High streets need to reinvent themselves quickly. Unlike European high streets which had a lot of protection from urban planners, and some lead time to develop a competitive strategy against out-of-town shopping, Indian high streets are faced with the prospect of sudden demise with the entry of huge malls in their own vicinity. Local market associations must rush to making sure their members work together and recreate a vibrant and different shopping environment to retain their customers – otherwise independent shop-owners will fall prey to Indian organised retailers much before foreign retailers even hit Indian shores!”

The Show must go on – SARS – Interstoff Asia

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October 15, 2003

In the throes of two wars – Conflict in Iraq and the fight against SARS – Interstoff Asia went without a hitch although, understandably, attendance was affected , with a 25 per cent drop against last spring’s show.

Interstoff Asia welcomed 7000 visitors to the spring event, held from 25-27 march, and they weren’t disappointed because of the 266 exhibitors promised, only seven from Thailand and one from Taiwan decided not to take the risk of attending. An extensive programme of seminars, product presentations plus trend forum all added up to a strong show, which attracted buyers from international brands such as Burberry, Marks and Spencer, Adidas, Victoria’s Secret, Skechers and, of course, US designer labels Calvin Klein, Donna Karen and Ralph Lauren, who where out in full force.

Two of the 12 seminars looked at sourcing worldwide. As one of the largest and fastest growing economies in the world, India’s consumer market offers lots of sales potential for international consumer brands. Devangshu Dutta made a presentation on ‘India’s Textile and Clothing Industry Today and Opportunities to Partner’. The seminar highlighted the advantages of buying from India, from the lower labour costs in the world, to a long textile history and the convenience of English as its main business language. The figure for exports from India in 2000-2001 reached US$ 12.10bn. The government target is US$ 20.70bn by 2005. The US and EU account for 70 per cent of exports. However there are also disadvantages, such as a fragmented industry structure, inefficient infrastructure and lack of trade pacts. Devangshu Dutta’s advice to companies interested in India was to develop a well researched and solid stratergy.

Global Sourcing and International competitiveness in the Textile and Apparel Industry’ by Dr. Gary Gereffi of Duke University, predicted that China would replace Hong Kong as a main product source for the US. However, Japan remains the most advanced of the Asian countries with regard to production of clothing, textiles, fibres and machinery. Mexico and Turkey are also keen to get in on the action. Without quota restriction, small exporting countries without an integrated manufacturing set up will lose out against the big integrated exporters.

Environmentally friendly, natural products will become more important in the future and Cargill Dow took to the Interstoff platform for the Asia launch of its PLA corn based product Ingeo. Tim Eynon and Dr.Jim Lunt of Cargill Dow described the advantages of the recyclable and biodegradable product and envisage a large amount of oil based PET will be replaced by PLA in the future. Cargill Dow recently signed an agreement with Far Eastern of Taiwan to supply Ingeo chips to make yarns and fabrics. India and China will also be involved in marketing development in the future. In Japan, Cargill Dow has been woirking with Unitika, Kuraray, Kamebo and Toray for quite some time, and in Hong Kong with Fountain Set since last year.

Another new natural product introduced at Interstoff Asia was Luobuma , a fibre with a 5000 year history, collected from the wilds of the Xinjiang Province. The plant has medicinal and health boosting qualities, such as breathability, anti-bacterial, UV protection, moisture absorbency, as well as stimulating circulation and far-infrared benefits for cell repair and arthritis relief. Luobuma also stands up to frequent washing very well, in fact, tests prove that the qualities of the fibre actually improve. The product is being promoted by the Xinjiang Green Health Luobuma Co. The company currently produces 30 tons a year, which makes up to 130 tons of product when mixed with other man-made and natural fibres. At the moment, the plant can only be harvested from November to March each year.

Bodywear Pavilion

In addition to the various international sections, the product pavilion featured the relatively new bodywear fabrics area. The programme was introduced a few years ago, but has grown considerably in size. This year the section boasted 30 exhibitors and its own trends display area. Hyosung of Korea – producer of elastane Creora – held court, exhibiting with seven of its customers and holding fashin shows throughout the days. The company used the show to promote its chlorine resistant Creora H-250, antibacterial Creora C100B, heat resistant Creora C-300 and fluorescent H-100F. As leading supplier of elastane in Korea, Hyosung holds more than 50 percent of the market share at home and is now the second largest supplier in the world. Due to high demand in China, the Shangai factory is expanding. Meanwhile, outside the ‘Hyosung zone’, 19 companies exhibited under the auspics of The Taiwan Textile Federation. Chifa Leather’s busy stand proved that despite a significant drop in the export of man-made leather from Taiwan, it has managed to survive by going upmarket, thus avoiding price competition with Chinese exhibitors. The company has also diversified into functional performance fabrics. Lower visitor figures were not an issue for another Taiwanese exhibitor, Ruentex, as it had already presented its new collection to main customers at Premiere Visionand Textworls last February; although the company did manage to find new business at the show. The collection incorporates UV protection, stain resistance, quick dry and antibacterial functions into fashion apparel fabrics, such as cotton, Tencel, rayon, ramie and linen.

Thai exhibitor figures diminished from 19 down to 12, due to fear of the SARS virus, but Nan Yang was undeterred, promoting its Dry-Tech Comfort System, in addition to stretch fabrics with a cotton hand feel for sports, body and underwear. The double layer Dry-Tech transmits, disperses and absorbs moisture, resulting in a 50 per cent quicker dry time than cotton. The Thai cottage industry is alive and well, in the form of Neoteric Life Ltd. Specializing in handwoven cotton and silk fabrics produced by villagers, the company offers advice and handles the sales and marketing side. As the Japanese are always looking for specialized, handcrafted items, it is the company’s main market at the moment.

It was only a decade ago that India and Taiwan were the largest exhibiting groups, but this season it was the 100 plus companies from China, which dominated the show. Technology, brought about through joint venture projects with foreign companies, especially those from Japan and Taiwan, have improved the quality of Chinese produced fabric and Chinese producers now attract buyers on the lookout for value-for-money items. Although most of the items were quite standard, there are some interesting products to be found. Meisheng Cloth & Garments of Shaoxing showed prints, bonding, embroidery and embossing on micro-suede fabrics and Zhejiang Youlong Enterprises offered woven materials with spandex. The company’s dye cut moleskin was very popular with European clients. Also from Zhejiang, Yong Tong Dyeing and Weaving Co., exhibited a large variety of fabrics from denim and flock to corduroy and embroidery. Japanese companies are known for their strength in new product development. Kuraray Trading carried a variety of new functional items, including Airmint. Introduced last year, it is 40 per cent lighter than polyester and is used particularly in sports, intimate and jeanswear. Cool touch Sophista is excellent for innerwear as the quick dry feature keeps the body cool; Space Master blocks harmful rays and Panapak is anti-pilling, quick drying and is blended with cotton in sportswear. Of the dozen or so European exhibitors, Miroglio was busy right up until closing time, although Hans Borrmann, area sales manager for Asia commented that it is usually even busier. Eurojersey of Italy was hoping to catch the European and American buyers, but not many came this time. Denim manufacturer – Gap Guneydogu Tekstil – the sole manufacturer from Turkey, returned again, as it found Interstoff Asia the best fair to make contact with Asian Buyers. In general, exhibitors who relied heavily on foreign buyers where affected, but many companies were still able to meet old, new and potential clients.

The next edition will be held 7-9 Oct 2003.

Riding on the regional strength

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September 15, 2003

In Europe as also in the West, the two textile giants, India and China, are often referred to as the elephant and the dragon respectively – India is, usually, the heavier, slower but a more patient elephant while China is portrayed as the faster, fire-breathing and market-usurping dragon which can occasionally run into problems because of its inability to cope with smaller details.

China may have emerged as the textile and apparel superpower because of its low-cost mass production capability. Nevertheless, India has been the quiet player which has been working backstage and making inroads into the global markets. India hopes that its ancient tradition of handicrafts combined with modern technology will enable it to assert its position in the world’s markets even after 2004 when restrictions on the textile trade, in the form of quotas, are eliminated as the World Trade Center (WTO) regulations are enforced.

Even as they admit that they face a threat from China, many Indian exporters maintain that Indian textiles are best woven by hand rather than by machines. That, they argue, ensures their survival.

Representatives of India Trade Promotion Organisation (ITPO), which organised the Tex-Styles India 2003 from February 28 to March 3 in Delhi, have been closely monitoring the breathtaking pace at which China’s textile and apparel industry has been making progress. They say that although India is the world’s second largest producer of textiles and apparel after China, India’s share of the overall global textiles market is only 2.8% and much smaller than that of China’s. India caters mainly to its large domestic market with more than a billion population.

However, India is a top global supplier of yarn accounting for 22% of the world’s trade in this commodity; it also accounts for 3.2% share of the global fabrics and meets 2.2% of the world’s apparel demand. Indeed, India produces everything from yarn to finished apparel.

Ambitious or just unrealistic?

India’s exports of textiles were hit during the last fiscal year ended March 31, 2002, and recorded an 11% drop to nearly $10.7 billion. However, India’s textile pundits are saying that exports will rise in the current fiscal year ended March 31, 2003, to the level of $13 billion. It has also set its sights on an ambitious goal of reaching $50 billion in the year 2010, which many critics describe as "unrealistic".

Unlike China, India thrives on catering to small volume requirements of buyers. This is true in the case of apparel and allied industries such as home furnishings where India can truly flex its muscles. This is particularly evident in the case of several Indian companies which supply small but highly specialised silk fabrics to Western countries, especially to the United States. Indeed, some Indians are even importing raw yarn for the manufacture of silk from China because, according to many Indian companies, the quality of Chinese silk yarn is superior to the Indian variety.

Many Indians, aware that they run the risk of not being able to compete against Pakistan and China in the international markets on grounds of cost effectiveness, weaker quality and designs, have begun to upgrade and modernise their production operations. A study prepared by McKinsey & Company under commission from the Indian Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council also provided a forewarning of this future scenario.

Some suppliers, who run what are known as cottage industries, where traditional hand work is carried out, turned to other mechanised means of production because the traditional hand work has been turning out to be slower and more expensive. These suppliers have been using machines now and have discovered that they can, as a result, cut costs and pass down the benefit of low-cost supplies to the importers. Indeed, by using machines, such manufacturers have been able to supply not only upper-end buyers but the lower-end clientele as well.

Subcontinent hub

A business investment consultant in India, Devangshu Dutta, suggests that when looking at India’s potential, one should consider the growth of the subcontinent hub, taking into account the combined forces of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Total apparel exports from the three places are estimated to grow to more than US$15 billion by 2005 and US$25 billion by 2010 from about US$12 billion in 2000.

Mr Dutta says a direct comparison between India and China would be unfair as India grows with the subcontinent and the region has good potential in the future. The subcontinent is also one of the largest and fastest growing consumer markets.

There are plenty of opportunities for raw material manufacturers and machinery makers while import duties are being brought down, he says, adding that in the textile and apparel industry, foreign direct investment is on an upward trend with manufacturing as the focus area.

However, Mr Dutta says that in addition to the dominance of small-scale production, the industry does not have a clear leadership and a true supply chain integration. Supply bases are spread out over a large geographical region, while the use of technology, especially information technology, has been insufficient.

Moreover, the Indian government still has to deal with its excise and other duty or tax imbalances, and modify the labour law which makes removal of staff difficult for employers, who therefore refrain from expansion.

Insight into India – part II

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June 18, 2003

Despite its disadvantages ( outlined in Insight into India: part I ), India presents several opportunities as well.

Opportunities for sourcing companies
As India’s basket of production increases, retailers, brands and importers can explore specific opportunities suited to their business. A single-point of advice to them would be to “go beyond the obvious.” Whether you have sourced from India previously or not, do not be limited to your past image of what the Indian supply base can produce.

Prompt your suppliers to show you something new in terms of product type, fabric developments etc during each meeting. The structure of the Indian supply base will certainly offer you the possibility of flexible and small production runs, and the possibility of experimenting with new products