The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):

1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:

• Inflationary pressures are hitting both sides of the market. While industries are facing rising input costs, the decision of how much cost to pass on to the consumer (through price increases or altering packaging sizes) rests with individual companies.
• Any direct price increase immediately can dampen consumer demand. As a result, companies have been hesitant to pass the entire burden of inflation to consumers right away. However, if geopolitical conflicts persist long term, they will have no choice but to raise prices.

2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):

• While public discussions often revolve around large, stock-market-listed corporations, the majority of the Indian economy is driven by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and small businesses.
• These smaller entities face immense pressure from rising input costs coupled with falling demand, which ultimately translates to direct financial stress on households.

3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:

• Due to these economic pressures, households will have to tighten their budgets over the next two quarters.
• Individuals should brace for rising costs of goods and services while anticipating that household incomes may not increase at the same pace to balance it out.

4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:

• The impact of crude oil is often misunderstood as only a transportation/logistics problem. While rising diesel prices inevitably raise truck freight rates that get passed onto products, oil’s impact is much broader.
• Crude oil is a core raw material. It directly affects the cost of plastics used in product packaging and is also formed into other base ingredients for many products. Therefore, rising oil prices inflate the overall production costs of almost every retail product, even if their logistical share is small.

5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:

• Lower-income groups, including daily wage earners and unskilled workers have fixed incomes and no financial cushions, forcing an immediate disruption in their daily essential spending. For the Middle-income groups, fixed liabilities like rent and EMIs will not decrease. To balance their household budgets, middle-class consumers will first cut back on discretionary spending (spending by choice), such as reducing outdoor dining, entertainment, and online food deliveries.
• If inflation lasts longer, consumers will resort to “down-trading”, either substituting premium products with cheaper alternative brands or buying smaller packet sizes.
• Companies are already shifting to “shrinkflation” tactics to avoid breaking critical price points. Instead of increasing the retail price, they are reducing the product volume (e.g., shrinking a packet from 100 grams to 80 grams).

The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]

This episode of theUpStreamlife is a freewheeling conversation between Vishal Krishna and Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, with insights into the growth of modern retail and consumption in India, brand building and M&A, the balance of power between brands and retailers/platforms, sustainability vs growth and many other aspects, and is well-suited for founders and teams who want to be building for the long run in India.

What does it actually take to build a fashion brand in India?

This panel (“Beyond the Noise- How D2c Fashion Brands Are Reinventing Retail”) at the 25th Edition of India Fashion Forum focussed on some real answers, in a refreshing, down-to-earth conversation moderated by Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight), with the founders of DeMoza (Agnes Raja George), The Mom Store (Surbhi Bhatia), Miraggio (Mohit Jain), BeyondBound (Tejasvi Madan), and Bari (Sameer Khan Lodhi).

No fluff, no “disrupting the industry” talk. Just founders being honest about what’s worked, what hasn’t, and what they’d do differently. A few things that struck a chord:

• Every single brand started because the founder couldn’t find something they personally wanted: inclusive activewear, affordable handbags that didn’t look cheap, good maternity wear. Sometimes the simplest observation is the best business idea.
• Inventory management came up often. One founder took their inventory cycle from 6 months down to 4. Another re-shuffles stock every 15 days based on what’s selling where. Unglamorous? Yes, but this is what actually keeps a business alive.
• The marketing conversation highlighted a move away from traditional advertising toward things that actually make people feel something. One founder talked about turning a farmhouse into a full “apricot colour” experience for customers. Another shoots content with real customers, not influencers.
• And the most memorable line of the whole discussion came from the most experienced founder in the room sharing a learning: “I won’t open stores fast.” No explanation needed, really.

Building a brand is exciting. Keeping it alive is the harder, quieter work. This panel was a good reminder of that. Worth a watch if you’re building something in this space.

In a startup world, founders are typically creators first while investors see themselves as the monitors. Therefore, conflicts between the two are almost a default feature of a relationship that in effect funds a dream. From ‘off’ chemistry to differences of opinion to what some founders see as shackles on entrepreneurial freedom, the reasons could be any or a mix of all. Watch this discussion, with a mega-panel of intense start-up founders on the one hand and investors with VC funds on the other, addressing the pain points on Cash, Control, Creativity, Chemistry and Culture in a supercharged encounter. Session Anchor, Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) reflected, “Those who have heard classical music jugalbandi or witnessed jazz musicians jamming will appreciate the creative tension, the give and take that was the thread throughout this discussion, reflecting the reality of the relationship between entrepreneurs and VCs.”

Watch the video

INVESTORS:
Ankita Balotia, VP, Fireside Ventures
Aashish Vanigota, Principal – Investments, IvyCap Ventures Advisors Private Limited
Bhawna Bhatnagar, Co-founder, We Founder Circle
Nitya Agarwal, VP-Investments, 3one4 Capital
Harmanpreet Singh, Founder & Managing Partner, Prath Ventures
Vamshi Reddy, Partner, Kalaari Capital
Zoeb Ali Khan, Vice President, Sauce.vc

D2C FOUNDERS:
Abdus Samad, Founder, Sam & Marshall Eyewear
Akshay Mahendru, Co-Founder & CEO, The Pet Point & Nootie
Malvika Jain, Founder, SEREKO
Nitin Jain, Founder, Indigifts
Puneet Tyagi, Egoss Shoes
Radhika Dang, CEO & Founder, The Good Karma Company
Rahul Aggarwal, Coffeeza
Udit Toshniwal, Founder & Director, The Pant Project
Vaani Chugh, Co-founder & Director, D’chica
Yash Kotak, Co-founder, Bombay Hemp Co.
Yashesh Mukhi, Co-founder, Chupps

At the recent Phygital Retail Convention in Mumbai, Devangshu Dutta anchored an engaging “Fireside Chat” with Bhavana Jaiswal of IKEA India and Kapil Makhija of Unicommerce , on retailers engaging with their customers across channels and formats, and the opportunities as well as challenges in managing experiences seamlessly across online and offline interfaces.

Watch the video at this link: