Weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices – dual challenge for the economy [Video]

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May 15, 2026

The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):

1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:

  • Inflationary pressures are hitting both sides of the market. While industries are facing rising input costs, the decision of how much cost to pass on to the consumer (through price increases or altering packaging sizes) rests with individual companies.
  • Any direct price increase immediately can dampen consumer demand. As a result, companies have been hesitant to pass the entire burden of inflation to consumers right away. However, if geopolitical conflicts persist long term, they will have no choice but to raise prices.

2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):

  • While public discussions often revolve around large, stock-market-listed corporations, the majority of the Indian economy is driven by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and small businesses.
  • These smaller entities face immense pressure from rising input costs coupled with falling demand, which ultimately translates to direct financial stress on households.

3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:

  • Due to these economic pressures, households will have to tighten their budgets over the next two quarters.
  • Individuals should brace for rising costs of goods and services while anticipating that household incomes may not increase at the same pace to balance it out.

4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:

  • The impact of crude oil is often misunderstood as only a transportation/logistics problem. While rising diesel prices inevitably raise truck freight rates that get passed onto products, oil’s impact is much broader.
  • Crude oil is a core raw material. It directly affects the cost of plastics used in product packaging and is also formed into other base ingredients for many products. Therefore, rising oil prices inflate the overall production costs of almost every retail product, even if their logistical share is small.

5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:

  • Lower-income groups, including daily wage earners and unskilled workers have fixed incomes and no financial cushions, forcing an immediate disruption in their daily essential spending. For the Middle-income groups, fixed liabilities like rent and EMIs will not decrease. To balance their household budgets, middle-class consumers will first cut back on discretionary spending (spending by choice), such as reducing outdoor dining, entertainment, and online food deliveries.
  • If inflation lasts longer, consumers will resort to “down-trading”, either substituting premium products with cheaper alternative brands or buying smaller packet sizes.
  • Companies are already shifting to “shrinkflation” tactics to avoid breaking critical price points. Instead of increasing the retail price, they are reducing the product volume (e.g., shrinking a packet from 100 grams to 80 grams).

The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]

Consumption! Brands, e-Commerce, Mom&Pop stores in India – a conversation with Devangshu Dutta [VIDEO]

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February 14, 2026

This episode of theUpStreamlife is a freewheeling conversation between Vishal Krishna and Devangshu Dutta, founder of Third Eyesight, with insights into the growth of modern retail and consumption in India, brand building and M&A, the balance of power between brands and retailers/platforms, sustainability vs growth and many other aspects, and is well-suited for founders and teams who want to be building for the long run in India.

Beyond the noise – how D2C brands are reinventing retail [VIDEO]

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January 28, 2026

What does it actually take to build a fashion brand in India?

This panel (“Beyond the Noise- How D2c Fashion Brands Are Reinventing Retail”) at the 25th Edition of India Fashion Forum focussed on some real answers, in a refreshing, down-to-earth conversation moderated by Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight), with the founders of DeMoza (Agnes Raja George), The Mom Store (Surbhi Bhatia), Miraggio (Mohit Jain), BeyondBound (Tejasvi Madan), and Bari (Sameer Khan Lodhi).

No fluff, no “disrupting the industry” talk. Just founders being honest about what’s worked, what hasn’t, and what they’d do differently. A few things that struck a chord:

• Every single brand started because the founder couldn’t find something they personally wanted: inclusive activewear, affordable handbags that didn’t look cheap, good maternity wear. Sometimes the simplest observation is the best business idea.
• Inventory management came up often. One founder took their inventory cycle from 6 months down to 4. Another re-shuffles stock every 15 days based on what’s selling where. Unglamorous? Yes, but this is what actually keeps a business alive.
• The marketing conversation highlighted a move away from traditional advertising toward things that actually make people feel something. One founder talked about turning a farmhouse into a full “apricot colour” experience for customers. Another shoots content with real customers, not influencers.
• And the most memorable line of the whole discussion came from the most experienced founder in the room sharing a learning: “I won’t open stores fast.” No explanation needed, really.

Building a brand is exciting. Keeping it alive is the harder, quieter work. This panel was a good reminder of that. Worth a watch if you’re building something in this space.

Why Most Indian D2C Brands Fail to Cross INR 100 Crore Mark

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December 15, 2025

By Saumyangi Yadav, Entrepreneur India
Dec 15, 2025

India’s D2C ecosystem has grown rapidly over the past five years, but scale remains elusive. While thousands of brands have launched and many have crossed early revenue milestones, only a small fraction manage to break past INR 100 crore in annual revenue. According to a new report by DSG Consumer Partners, based on a survey of over 100 Indian D2C founders and operators, the problem is not demand or product-market fit, it is how brands attempt to scale.

The report shows that around 60–65 per cent of Indian D2C brands remain stuck in the INR 1–50 crore revenue band, with very few reaching the INR 100 crore mark. This stage marks the point where early traction exists, but growth begins to strain unit economics, teams, and operating systems.

Insights from over 100 D2C founders reveal that India’s fastest-growing brands win on fundamentals rather than speed alone. Clear product-market fit, disciplined data tracking, strong unit economics, creative velocity, and an early focus on retention consistently separate scalable brands from those that plateau. Founders also admit that performance marketing mistakes, pricing missteps, and weak creative systems slow growth far more than budget constraints. In a booming D2C landscape, capability gaps in operations, brand-building, and supply-chain depth are widening the divide between breakout brands and those stuck in the performance plateau.

Industry observers argue that this is where many brands mistake rapid online growth for sustainable scale.

As Devangshu Dutta, Founder & CEO, Third Eyesight, explains, “Scaling up online can be very rapid, but is also capital-hungry in terms of CAC. Given the intense competition, the lack of customer stickiness and the power of platforms, there is a constant churn of marketing spend which is a huge bleed for growing brands.”

CAC Inflation is The Real Constraint

One of the clearest findings from the playbook is that acquisition efficiency, rising CAC and unstable ROAS, is the single biggest blocker to growth, cited by more founders than funding or category expansion. Moreover, over 70 per cent of brands rely on Meta as their primary acquisition channel, increasing vulnerability to auction pressure and platform-driven volatility.

Dutta links this directly to the limits of a digital-only mindset. “Limited offline expansion can trap brands in narrow urban digital markets, blocking broader scale,” he said.

This over-reliance on online performance marketing often leads to growth that looks strong on dashboards but weak on cash flow.

Highlighting their report, Pooja Shirali, Vice President, DSG Consumer Partners, said, “Across over 90 consumer brands we’ve partnered with at DSGCP, one truth is clear: brands that master Meta’s ecosystem don’t just grow, they change their entire trajectory through strategic clarity and disciplined execution. The real drivers of scale have less to do with viral moments, and everything to do with the long-term fundamentals that make milestones like the first INR 100 crore predictable, not accidental.”

Why Omnichannel is Unavoidable

The report suggests that brands that scale sustainably are those that reduce overdependence on paid digital acquisition and expand their distribution footprint. However, offline expansion brings its own complexity.

Dutta stresses that omnichannel is not an optional add-on, but a strategic shift. “D2C brands must adopt an omnichannel approach, blending online with offline retail for sustainable and scalable reach. Clearly the channels work very differently and management teams have to be prepared and capitalised for the long haul to tackle acquiring customers with channel-appropriate strategies,” he adds.

This aligns with the DSGCP report’s broader insight that scale breaks down when brands fail to adapt operating models as they grow.

Even within digital channels, performance weakens over time. The playbook finds that 62 per cent of founders report creative fatigue, where repeated creatives fail to sustain ROAS despite higher spends. At the same time, 55 per cent admit to under-investing in CRM and retention, with most brands reporting repeat purchase rates of just 10–30 per cent.

Both the data and expert opinion point to a common theme: brands that cross the INR 100 crore mark are structurally different. They obsess over unit economics, processes, and capital efficiency rather than topline growth alone.

As Dutta puts it, “Scalable brands that cross the growth hump have leadership obsessed with unit economics and omnichannel execution rather than chasing vanity metrics. Cash always was and is king, especially at early stages of growth.”

He adds that execution strength matters as much as strategy. “They are able to grow and steer teams that build and replicate processes fast rather than spending time, effort and money reinventing all the time, and do so without constant CXO intervention.”

As competition intensifies and capital becomes more selective, the next generation of INR 100 crore D2C brands is likely to be defined not by speed, but by the ability to compound cash flows, institutionalise processes, and scale distribution beyond digital platforms.

Saumyangi is a Senior Correspondent at Entrepreneur India with over three years of experience in journalism. She has reported on education, social, and civic issues, and currently covers the D2C and consumer brand space.

(Published in Entrepreneur India)

GST Council Meets Today: What the Overhaul Could Mean for E-Commerce Sellers

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September 3, 2025

Aakriti Bansal, Medianama
3 September 2025

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) overhaul simplifies India’s tax structure and lowers prices for many goods. However, for e-commerce sellers, the change arrives at the worst possible moment. Platforms and sellers must adjust billing systems, invoices, and inventory records just as the festive season begins.

The festive period drives the highest order volumes of the year, and even minor disruptions in invoicing or compliance ripple through the system. Refunds get delayed, seller–platform relations strain, consumers face frustration, and penalties under GST law escalate. Moreover, the episode shows the fragility of India’s e-commerce compliance infrastructure.

Larger sellers can rely on manpower and technology, but smaller businesses remain disproportionately exposed. Platforms, meanwhile, cannot act as neutral intermediaries when their invoicing systems directly control seller compliance. The question now is whether the government, platforms, and sellers can move fast enough to make structural reforms without turning them into seasonal flashpoints.

What’s the News?

The GST Council, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, is meeting today and tomorrow (September 3–4), according to a report by Hindustan Times, to decide on a major overhaul of India’s tax system. The timing has already unsettled e-commerce. Platforms like Amazon, Flipkart, and Meesho are holding back on announcing festive sale dates, while sellers report uncertainty about how to handle inventory already billed at old rates.

Shoppers are delaying big-ticket purchases such as smartphones, televisions, and appliances, creating a visible slowdown in demand. Retailers are carrying higher stock levels, waiting to recalibrate pricing once the Council clarifies the new slabs. The pause comes just before the festive sales period, which typically contributes about a quarter of annual revenues for e-commerce platforms.

What the GST Reforms Are

The government has proposed collapsing the four-tier GST structure of 5%, 12%, 18%, and 28% into two slabs of 5% and 18%. A new 40% tier would apply to luxury and sin goods, replacing the existing compensation-cess mechanism.

If the Council approves, several categories will see rate changes. White goods such as washing machines, air-conditioners, smartphones, refrigerators, and televisions would move from 28% to 18%. Small petrol cars and motorcycles would also shift from 28% to 18%. Essentials including ghee, nuts, namkeen, packaged drinking water, and medical devices would drop from 12% to 5%. Everyday consumer products like toothpaste, shampoo, soap, and ready-to-eat foods would also move into the 5% bracket.

The 40% tier would target high-end cars, premium electric vehicles, tobacco, and pan masala. States have pushed back, warning of revenue losses, and discussions are underway on whether higher levies on luxury items or cess surpluses can offset the shortfall.

Implementation Challenges

Satish Meena of Datum Intelligence, a market research firm, flagged the absence of a transition window as “very tricky.” “Everyone wants to make the change because this is the peak sale time,” Meena explained. “But the challenge is how it will be implemented for goods already in warehouses. Once inventory has moved from the company to the warehouse under the old GST, how will you pass on the benefit to the customer?”

Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of Third Eyesight, a retail consulting firm, pointed to similar risks. “Sellers will need to rapidly adjust pricing strategies and inventory details, keeping in mind that the festive season is upon us,” Dutta explained. “One would hope that the changeover of rates doesn’t create supply unpredictability in this critical season.”

Abhishek A. Rastogi, founder of Rastogi Chambers, a law firm specialising in indirect tax and regulatory matters, warned about compliance fallout.“From a compliance perspective, the biggest challenge will be ensuring real-time alignment between product listings, tax rates, and invoices generated. Even a minor mismatch in billing, particularly during the high-volume festive season, could result in serious exposure,” Rastogi said.

Impact on Smaller Sellers

Experts agreed that smaller sellers carry the heaviest burden. “Larger sellers with manpower and technology will cope faster. Smaller sellers will face particular challenges,” Meena noted.

Dutta explained why smaller businesses feel the squeeze. “Businesses of all sizes face the burden of compliance and accurate reporting, but smaller businesses feel the impact disproportionately as their management resources are far more limited. Often it is the owner-manager, the most critical human resource in a small business, whose time gets sucked into ensuring the changes go through smoothly,” he said.

Moreover, Rastogi advised small sellers to act defensively. “Smaller sellers must ensure they maintain proper records of their communications with platforms, raise tickets on billing mismatches, and document tax advice received. Such proactive record-keeping will protect them if litigation arises later. They should also consider contractual safeguards when signing with platforms,” he said.

Platforms Under Pressure

Platforms also operate under strain. Meena pointed out that festive sales remain unannounced. “Typically, the sales should be in the week of October 13–14, or the following week. That has not been announced till now because of this GST issue,” he said.

Dutta argued that platforms must step in to steady sellers. “Sales, inventory, and return reconciliation is an ongoing issue and potential point of dissatisfaction among sellers. To avoid adding to this, e-commerce platforms need to provide enhanced seller support to smooth out the turbulence during the GST changeover,” he said.

Rastogi underlined that platforms share liability. “Legally, the burden to discharge GST liability lies on the seller. However, given that invoicing systems are often managed by e-commerce platforms, there is a shared responsibility to ensure the correct GST rate is applied. Any platform-level error that causes sellers to become non-compliant could become a contentious issue,” he explained.

He also laid out remedies. “Sellers impacted due to platform-level glitches can seek remedies under contract law and indemnity clauses in their agreements with the platform. They may also explore legal recourse if non-compliance is triggered without their fault. Ultimately, disputes of this nature will test how liability is apportioned between sellers and platforms,” Rastogi mentioned.

Consumer and Market Effects

The uncertainty already shapes consumer behaviour. “There is already a decline in demand over the last two weeks as customers are delaying purchases, waiting for festive discounts,” Meena observed. “If sales are pushed too close to Diwali, customers may move to offline stores where delivery is immediate and pricing on appliances can match e-commerce.”

Notably, Dutta pointed out that offline businesses could benefit. “Small offline businesses that don’t have GST numbers and don’t need to compile GST returns may be able to quickly benefit from lower input costs and may be able to become more price competitive,” he said.

Need for Government Clarity

Both Dutta and Rastogi called for immediate guidance.

Dutta warned that reforms must not create “supply unpredictability in this critical season.”

Rastogi pressed for intervention. “There is a strong case for the government to issue clarificatory circulars or transitional relief, particularly given the festive season volumes. Without such guidance, both sellers and platforms face a high risk of disputes, and the compliance ecosystem may be overburdened,” he noted.

Why It Matters

The GST reforms land as festive season spending sets the direction for the retail year. E-commerce platforms draw about a quarter of their annual revenues during this period, and sellers use these weeks to recover margins. Datum Intelligence estimates that online shoppers will spend around Rs. 1,20,000 crore in 2025, up 27% from 2024, with quick commerce taking 12% of that share. At this scale, even small invoicing or compliance errors can lock up billions of rupees in disputed sales.

The reforms already shape consumer behaviour. Shoppers hold back purchases while they wait for clarity on tax rates, and platforms face pressure to adjust quickly. If festive sales move closer to Diwali, buyers may switch to offline stores that match appliance prices and provide immediate delivery.

The rollout will show whether platforms and sellers manage a nationwide tax change in the middle of their busiest season or allow it to disrupt India’s largest online retail channel.

(Published in Medianama)