Priyanka Pani, The Hindu Businessline
Mumbai, August 31, 2012
Even as brands and apparel retailers appear to have had a prolonged bumper sale against the backdrop of a general slowdown, festive season sales have got the short end of the stick. ‘Sale’ season in the country started around end-May, but was extended by eight weeks. For instance, Shoppers Stop is are still busy luring ‘shopaholics’ to stores with flat 51 per cent discount.
“What typically used to be a month-long phenomenon has become a 3-month affair now. Shoppers are trying to extract the maximum benefit out of these sales. The main issue now is whether demand will pick up during the festive season that starts with Ganesh Chaturthi,” said Devangshu Dutta of retail consulting firm, Third Eyesight.
Slowing GDP growth, poor monsoon and sustained inflationary pressures are hurting consumer confidence, says a report by research firm Espirito Santo. Fitch Ratings too has revised the H2FY12 outlook for the Indian retail sector to negative from stable, in view of a sustained deterioration in the discretionary spending ability. The firm has said it is unlikely to improve over the short term.
“Lot of purchases have become need based. People, apprehending a further slowdown in the economy and with the forthcoming festivities, have purchased in bulk. Retailers might not witness major shopping in the next 2-3 months,” Dutta said adding that poor monsoon could also dampen the consumer sentiment.
Retailers said poor same-store sales in Q3FY12 forced many stores to extend the sale period. Though the discount schemes helped boost volumes, it impacted margins.
Textile majors too are apprehending poor festive season sales. “There is an overall slowdown in the textiles sector,” said Thomas Varghese, CEO, Aditya Birla Textiles.
Rakesh Pandey, President (Retail and Business Development), Raymond, said the upcoming wedding season could help bring some respite.
Meghna Maiti, Financial Chronicle
Mumbai, August 30, 2012
For the first time in a quarter century, rural India outdid urban consumption in the past two years, according to a Crisil study. Rural spending rode on a big increase in incomes, mainly resulting from non-farm jobs and rural employment guarantee schemes.
A young population, rising incomes and low penetration of many consumer durables mean that rural consumption has the potential to remain an important source of demand, the study says.
But to sustain this, says the study, it is critical to substitute short-term income boosters such as government-sponsored employment schemes with durable job opportunities in rural areas.
Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of Third Eyesight, a retail consulting firm, says rural growth comes on the back of increasing incomes, percolation of aspirations and lifestyle from urban areas. The trend is clearly visible in the consumption of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) in the hinterland.
One company in this sector, Godrej Consumer Products, has seen strong growth in rural areas… “fuelled by wage increases and enhanced exposure to products,” according to P Ganesh, the company’s executive vice-president and company secretary. The FMCG sector also benefited from development in tier II and III cities.
Besides guaranteed rural employment, ever-higher minimum support prices for farm produce have helped raised rural incomes and standards of living.
Rural demand accounts now for around 40 per cent of Hindustan Unilever’s sales. The company claims two of every three Indians as its consumers.
Jagdeep Kapoor, CMD of Samsika Marketing & Consultants, estimates that rural areas give the FMCG industry more than half its income. The rural population is far bigger than the urban populace. With the spread of television, internet, rural consumers are now more aware of brands. Two-thirds of India’s billion-plus population are estimated to live in villages.
Harish Manwani, Hindustan Unilever chairman, spoke of the importance of rural India to his company at its recent annual general meeting. “More than 40 per cent of our products are consumed in the fast growing markets of rural India. We have been pioneers in developing rural markets through affordable brands and an unparalleled distribution reach,” he said.
Similarly, 35 per cent of ITC’s FMCG revenue comes from rural India. Hemant Malik, COO for the company’s FMCG marketing and distribution, has not seen a change in the consumption patterns in urban and rural areas. But ITC is closely monitoring this to build sales strategies.
He says ITC does not expect any change in the FMCG demand and consumption pattern in rural India. “Since FMCG items are of daily use, consumption may shift towards smaller pack sizes, and customers may downgrade or substitute items.”
Because a majority of India’s population resides in the villages, the value of goods and services consumed by them has always been more than in urban India. But the difference has been narrowing as urban India has been growing faster.
However, during 2009-10 and 2011-12, rural consumption per capita grew annually at 19 per cent, 2 percentage points higher than in urban areas, according to preliminary data released for 2011-12 by the National Sample Survey Organisation.
In incremental terms, spending by rural India in these two years was Rs 3,75,000 crore, significantly higher than Rs 2,99,400 crore spent by urban people.
With rising purchasing power, a notable phenomenon increasingly discernible in rural consumption is a shift from necessities to discretionary goods. One in every two rural households now has a mobile phone. Even in India’s poorest states such as Bihar and Orissa, one in three rural households has a mobile phone.
Nearly 42 per cent of rural households owned a TV set in 2009-10, up from 26 per cent five years earlier. Similarly, 14 per cent of rural households had a two-wheeler in 2009-10, twice that in 2004-05, although penetration remains well below the urban level of 33 per cent, says the Crisil report. More than half of India’s stock of consumer durables such as TV sets, electric fans and two-wheelers is now in rural India, the report adds.
Raghavendra Kamath & Vinay Umarji, Business Standard
Mumbai/Ahmedabad Aug 29, 2012
Stung by a consumption slowdown and cut-throat competition from other quick-service chains, Big Mac is trying hard to give customers more reasons to come to its stores. So its latest India menu now comprises a differential pricing strategy and better in-store experience.
While Vikram Bakshi’s Connaught Plaza Restaurants, which has a joint venture with McDonald’s and has rights for the north and east, cut prices by 6-15 per cent from August 1 to boost sales, Hardcastle Restaurants, a development licensee of McDonald’s which runs West and South India operations, has refrained from doing so.
“When customers are feeling the pressure of inflation from
all sides, we thought it is a good time to rationalise prices,”
says Bakshi. He claims the chain has seen 10 per cent increase
in sales, though it has taken a hit of 40 basis points in its
margins after it cut prices. “We think 10 per cent growth
is far superior than a 40 basis points hit on margins.”
Bakshi may have a point as early this year, Pizza Hut, run by Yum Restaurants India, launched the ‘Rs 29 pizza’ and KFC added two snacker burger and new beverage Krushers Frappe to its Streetwise Menu which starts at just Rs 25.
But Hardcastle’s Amit Jatia has a different take. “We do not need to reduce prices as we are seeing a strong comparable sales growth in our stores in the south and west. We believe consistency in offering ‘everyday low value’ has paid off for us,” says.
Doesn’t such differential pricing create confusion in the minds of consumers? Jatia does not think so. “Anyway, different states have different taxes which make prices different. The consumers’ perception of value is also different,” he adds.
Even retail consultants such as Devangshu Dutta, chief executive, Third Eyesight, see logic in the move. “Firstly, in India, McDonald’s has two JVs with separate P&Ls – so the opinions of the partners in their respective regions would have more weight than a simple franchisee’s would. Secondly, local relevance of product mix and pricing is a key driver of success in all retail products.”
Besides pricing, McDonald’s is also experimenting with different formats to woo customers. While Jatia’s Hardcastle is looking at bigger restaurants of 4,000 sq ft , Bakshi recently launched smaller-sized ‘remote kiosks’ which are within three to four kms of a “mother store” and located at metro stations, hypermarkets and high streets.
While Hardcastle has around 35 kiosks and 26 drive thru’s, it plans to have 25-30 kiosks and a similar number of drive thru’s in the next two-three years. It plans to open 35 to 40 restaurants this year.
McDonald’s is also opening new stores and revamping the existing ones under new designs to make them more appealing. So you have cushioned bar stools, plush LED lights and POS/EDC terminals from the earlier stainless steel furniture and dim yellow lightings. “We have learnt that design has to keep up with consumer demands,” says Jatia.
Being modern and contemporary also led McDonald’s to increasingly accept credit cards at almost all its new outlets.
Experts, however, say the improvement of McDonald’s stores should have happened much earlier. QSRs, which focus on coffee, have overtaken McDonald’s. There is no doubt that McDonald’s needs to look contemporary, soft and modern with cutting edge,” says Harish Bijoor, CEO of Harish Bijoor Consults Inc.
Even for Shripad Nadkarni, founder director, MarketGate Consulting, a brand consulting firm, McDonald’s stores had begun to look “dull” for some time now. “One of McDonald’s’ biggest successes is understanding the Indian palate. They draw on ‘glocal’ products which have been a huge success for them. However, where McDonald’s was lacking was in-store experience. Their stores needed improvement. It now seems the in-store experience is moving along the consumer preferences,” says Nadkarni.
When compared to its peers like Subway and KFC, McDonald’s also has to keep its target audience in mind while planning the in-store experience. “Subway caters to an adult audience, KFC looks to focus mostly on non-vegetarians while McDonald’s is about family and kids. Subway’s appeal is more towards a mature consumer segment while McDonald’s is more about family time,” says Nadkarni. Needless to say, McDonald’s’ new stores offer ample space for kids’ play area, thereby tapping its consumers’ family time.
The chain will first renovate those that are more than 10 years old. For the rest, it will adopt a ‘mini-market’ approach. “If we have five stores in the same area, then we’ll partially renovate all of them so that some consistency is managed in the design,” Bakshi says.
Priyanka Golikeri & Nupur Anand, Daily News & Analysis (DNA)
Bangalore, 22 August 2012
Now, macroeconomic woes are impacting even quick service restaurants (QSRs), the 150-3,000 square feet neighbourhood dine-in / takeaway food joints that serve up your pizzas, burgers and rolls.
For, the slowdown, it has been found, is changing consumer behaviour and their eating patterns: footfalls are lower and bill sizes smaller. From 350-500 people per day, QSRs are seeing a 10-15% drop in footfalls, said a senior official from a pizza-pasta chain.
Moreover, from two to three visits per week, the frequency of customer visits has dropped to once a week or once in ten days. This is spooking QSRs which have been growing at a fast clip of late.
“What used to be a weekend family eat-out routine is now happening every fortnight,” said Krishna Kumar, CEO of Curries Hospitality which runs a chain of sandwich and pasta joints.
Rising inflation and negligible pay hikes have weakened customers’ propensity to spend on discretionary goods, say experts.
“When there is no hike in salary and the cost of every commodity only goes up, people cannot think of spending Rs400-500 every second day on quick bites,” says the official from the pizza chain. People might eat out, but instead of ordering for a large pizza with cakes and soft drinks, a person might restrict himself to a medium- or small-sized pizza minus the cake, he says.
Kumar says growth this fiscal will range between 12% and 13%, much lower than the 18-20% seen last year.
QSRs account for 18% of the $74 billion informal eat-out sector which includes restaurants that serve traditional Indian snacks like idli, dosa and chaat, as per estimates by market intelligence provider Euromonitor.
QSRs are the most difficult segment in the food market, says Harminder Sahni, MD of retail consultancy Wazir Advisors.
“Players need to get several factors, including delivery and supply chain, right to crack the market. Competition from other organised players having a big brand pull is another challenge.”
Devangshu Dutta, CEO of retail consultancy Third Eyesight, says players are cautious in the wake of the correction witnessed during 2009-11. “It is not that outlets are closing down. But cooking at home is much cheaper than eating out.”
Nevertheless, QSR chains have their expansion plans intact. Dutta says this is because rentals have dipped and advertising costs have corrected. “Players are taking the opportunity to cement their position. They are cashing in on e-commerce and changing their menus to make it more region- and city-specific than earlier.
These chains are also reducing entry price points to attract more customers.”
Amit Jatia, vice chairman of McDonald’s India, says the company will invest Rs500 crore and add over 150 outlets by 2014 in the west and south regions that he oversees. “We have not seen any significant slowdown in demand and are seeing double-digit growth.” McDonald’s currently has 135 outlets in the two regions.
Likewise, Kaati Zone, the rolls joint, will add 30-35 outlets by March 2013 to its current 32, says CEO Kiran Nadkarni. It will also consolidate in existing markets like Mumbai, Bangalore, Coimbatore and Hyderabad. “QSRs cater to mass markets and are less expensive than fine dining. Hence, they are immune from downturn.”
Kumar says Curries will add 25 outlets to Crusty’s 79 this year in places like Mysore, Chandigarh, Nagpur and Lucknow.
Nupur Anand, Daily News & Analysis (DNA)
Mumbai, 21 August 2012
Retailers are bleeding. The ‘sale’ season whose duration has been stretched of late, has pushed brands and retailers to despair, in spite of shoppers’ frenzy. The sale season in its present form is unsustainable, retailers say.
Traditionally, seasonal sales used to start in August. Last year, they were advanced to July to give shoppers additional time to indulge. This year’s sales started in June.
“‘Sale’ was originally introduced to boost sales. But this prolonged sale and deep discounting are not a good strategy. Retailers need to take stock and devise a way out of these frequent sales now,” says Arvind Singhal of Technopak, a retail consultancy firm.
Companies and retailers may get hurt as quality-conscious customers who may not be bargain-hunters, are likely to stay off markets during the sale duration. And bargain-hunters are likely to behave likewise after the discount season, leading to subdued demand for long periods.
So, the consequent demand-supply mismatch leads to huge inventories which, in turn, necessitate longer sale periods. Companies are now trying to correct this phenomenon by preempting inventory pile-ups.
“Companies need to and are trying to get their demand forecasts right to avoid pile-ups and to maintain profits,” says Sanjay Vakharia, director at Spykar Lifestyles.
What this can mean for customers is a shorter sale period and fewer, and lower, discounts.
“The companies may take a couple of quarters more to get their stock pile-up right. Consumers can then say goodbye to these three-month-long sales,” says Abhishek Ranganathan, analyst at MF Global.
Devangshu Dutta, CEO of retail consulting firm Third Eyesight, thinks consumer demand has been subdued this year, and is unlikely to change any time soon due to the dampened consumer sentiment and dismal macroeconomic scenario.
“Companies are not going to repeat their mistake of a making wrong demand forecast,” says Dutta. “To check the mismatch between anticipated demand and actual demand, companies are reducing the time between orders and deliveries. With this, they will have less stock to clear at the end of a season and this will possibly lead to shorter discount sales.”
This is a much-needed change, say retailers. “Besides brands, malls organise their own discount sales to increase footfalls. Long promotional offers are bleeding companies. The retail industry is finding this sale frenzy unsustainable,” says the CEO of an apparel-and-retail chain.
Retailers are also worried about changing consumer behaviour and expectations. These days, shoppers wait for the sale season to start before they step out with cash/ cards to buy. Given frequent sales, the wait to buy stuff at half the cost is never too long.
Up to 70% discounts are another worry for the industry. “We are forced to offer deep discounts as everyone else is doing so. We don’t have a choice,” says Sanjay Bindra, director at Seven East, an ethnic wear brand.
Retailers acknowledge that sales and discounts attract consumers to retail spaces like malls that would otherwise wear a deserted look. But such footfalls, they bemoan, have come at a huge cost to them.
Meghna Maiti, Financial Chronicle
Mumbai, 13 August 2012
Max Hypermarket India, part of the Dubai-based retailer Landmark group, has signed a franchisee agreement with French retailer Auchan group to develop the hypermarket business in India. The existing Max Hypermarket stores will be rebranded as Auchan, and the stores will operate under the franchise agreement.
Max, which is run by Landmark group, operates 13 hypermarkets in India. These stores will be rebranded in the fourth quarter of the current financial year. Max and Auchan plan to open 12-15 new stores annually across India, they said in a joint statement.
Viney Singh, managing director of Max Hypermarket, told Financial Chronicle that the deal would help the company strengthen its backend supply chain and processes. While the company has invested Rs 450 crore in the business, it is looking to invest around Rs 500 crore over the next three years, Singh said. “The synergies could be in every sustainable area. Auchan’s expertise in managing hypermarkets and our understanding of the Indian market will ensure we bring the best of value, choice and experience to our customers,” added Singh.
Saloni Nangia, senior vice-president at retail consulting division of Technopak, said, “At a time when economy is really slow, such partnerships would go a long way in boosting confidence.”
“Auchan is one of the largest retail groups in the world. This move indicates a commitment of the Auchan brand to the Indian market. In case FDI in retail comes through, the French major may directly invest into Max,” said Devangshu Dutta, head of consulting firm, Third Eyesight.
Philippe Baroukh, GM of Hypermarkets at Auchan group said that the new franchise partnership is a great opportunity for Auchan to enhance its brand in a high potential market.
“The Landmark group has aggressive growth plans for India, across various verticals, and we believe that Auchan are the right franchise partners for us, as we continue to set benchmarks in Indian retailing,” said Ramanathan Hariharan, director of Landmark group in a press statement.
Meghna Maiti, Financial Chronicle
Mumbai,13 August 2012
Even as Pantaloon Retail India (PRIL) continues its expansion drive, post its deal to sell controlling stake in the Pantaloons format to the AV Birla group, Kishore Biyani CEO at Future group has embarked on a restructuring exercise to ride through the downturn.
PRIL increased its space under management by 0.55 million square
feet of retail space, during the quarter ending June, compared
with the year-ago period, the flagship of India’s largest
listed organised retailer has shut down two stores of its electronics
retail chain eZone and 10 stores of its core format Food Bazaar,
the company told analysts in a presentation last week.
Food Bazaar the supermarket format is a key component of Future Value Retail that brings in the lion’s share of the company’s revenues.
“Fresh food and grocery is a challenging format for most retailers. Biyani is trying to reduce the company’s losses by shutting down non-profitable stores,” said Harminder Sahni, managing director of Wazir Advisors.
In an analyst presentation, PRIL at the end of June quarter had a total operational retail space of 16.71 million square feet. “The company believes that in such challenging times, the focus has to be on areas like better inventory management, prudent cost management and more efficient store operations,” PRIL said in its quarterly result statement.
Devangshu Dutta, chief executive at Third Eyesight said that retailers should shut down stores located in wrong catchments, customers. “In such cases, the company should try to reform the stores. It’s sign of a healthy business,” he added.
Biyani’s eZone competes with Tata owned Croma and Videocon owned Next Retail, among others. The Food Bazaar unit has been facing increased competition from the Raheja owned HyperCITY; Reliance owned Reliance Mart and Super department stores amongst others.
Retailers in India have traditionally struggled to make a profit in the low margin food and grocery business as the fresh fruit and vegetables section has been their Achilles heel.
“During this period, the company focused as much on opening new stores in key locations as on improving store efficiencies. At a number of locations that weren’t performing up to the mark, the company decided to rationalise spaces either through shutting down non-performing sections of the store, conversion of lifestyle formats to value formats or full closure of stores,” said PRIL in the commentary of its results for its fourth quarter results announced last week.
PRIL’s gross space addition in the past 12 months was 2.37 million sq ft.
Meghna Maiti, Financial Chronicle
Mumbai, 2 August 2012
If you are worried about the long queues at your neighbourhood Big Bazaar during the much-awaited Independence Day sale, help is at hand. For the first time the supermarket chain, is now coming to a computer screen across the commercial capital of Mumbai with the Biyani-led venture starting an e-tailing offering bigbazaar.com.
Customers who purchase goods through the site are promised delivery at their homes within three business days for a convenience charge of Rs 50 per order if the value is under Rs 500. “We just launched the e-tailing venture and are experimenting with what products to offer through the portal and how much to charge etc. It’s still in the experimentation stage and learning’s will be gleaned before we scale this beyond the city,” a top Future group official who requested anonymity told Financial Chronicle.
The e-tailing venture that promises home delivery of its merchandise across Mumbai could potentially do away with the drudgery of shopping on weekends and take care of the issue of long queues at billing counters on holidays and weekends. It will also allow the Biyani franchise to boost sales without adding real estate and salary costs, said industry experts. “Adding an online interface is the smartest thing to do at a time most retailers are going multi-channel,” said Saloni Nangia, senior vice-president at retail consultancy Technopak Advisors.
The biggest constituent of Kishore Biyani-owned Future Group will offer potential customers buy non-perishable products right from food and grocery to apparel save for fresh, dairy and frozen products, oil pouches, jams and sauces and loose cereals etc. The e-tailing venture has gone live just before the crucial Independence Day sale, which is one of the biggest revenue earners of Big Bazaar in the year. Big Bazaar will also offer cash on delivery option for this service, which is likely to give serious competition to kirana stores. For orders above Rs 500 in value, there is no delivery charge.
“When any company treats its online venture as just an add-on, it does not run very well. The company has to treat it as a different business environment with a clear model to succeed,” said Devangshu Dutta, CEO at consultancy firm Third Eyesight.
While the company’s online retail arm, futurebazaar.com is already operational; it has launched new initiatives in the e-commerce space such as SMS short codes, teleshopping proximity marketing through mobile phones. The initiative has helped Future Group, one of the first modern retailers to move into digital commerce in a big way. It will compete with portals such as eBay.com, Indiatimes.com and rediff.com as well as with websites of Shoppers Stop and Landmark, on the internet.
Prashant Mahesh, The Economic Times
Mumbai, 2 August 2012
People may not love the rains, but monsoon sales are the favourite with most of them. It has almost become an annual ritual with people to shop for their favourite brands during the sale period that are otherwise too expensive to purchase. And the retailers are more than happy to cash in on this consumer frenzy.
Yes, it’s once again that time of the season to go on a shopping spree and pick up stuff at discounts varying from 10 to 90% on your favourite products… be it apparel, shoes, bags or watches. Some people may even want to buy presents to give their friends through the year for birthdays, reunions and so on, and this year is no different.
The economic slowdown hasn’t cast its shadow on the so-called season’s sales. Huge hoardings are visible at every busy traffic signal. But, one small nagging doubt: Is it a smart idea to shop at these sales? Sure, you save a lot of money, but does it make financial sense to shop as if there won’t be another sale in this millennium.
"Year-end sales are a great time to shop from a consumer’s perspective since you can get premium brands at a discount on such occasions," says Ram Gudipati, Manging Director, Brand Harvest.
"Do not indulge in impulsive buying and avoid purchasing high-value items in a sale. Ensure that the sale is genuine and you get value in what you are buying," says Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive Officer, Third Eyesight, a consulting firm focused on retail and consumer products.
CHECK IF THE SALE IS GENUINE
There are many reasons behind an end-of-the-season sale. As a consumer, you need to understand if it works for you or not before opening the wallet.
"Due to the slowdown in the economy, manufacturers could not sell everything that they produced, resulting in a higher inventory, which they want to liquidate before the festive season sets in. A sale is one of the best ways to do it," says Arvind Singhal, Chairman, Technopak Advisors.
"Styles and fashion change fast. In the case of apparel, designs could go out of fashion fast. Hence if a manufacturer has excess stock of a particular design, which he feels will go out of fashion, he would be better off selling it at a discounted price through a sale," says Devangshu Dutta.
Of course, there is nothing wrong in both the above cases, as it is genuine and it could work in your favour, say experts. Then there are some retailers who play on consumer psyche, whom consumers need to be careful of. "Many retailers deliberately mark up a price of a product and then mark it down during the sale period," adds Dutta.
So a product whose fair price is actually Rs 400 is marked up to Rs 800. A regular customer at the store is tricked into believing that it’s the best price and grabs the product in a sale on seeing a 50% discount.
Of course for a layman it is very difficult to distinguish whether a sale is genuine or not. However, if you use the brand regularly or visit the store regularly, it will be easier for you to judge whether the sale is genuine or not. You will be able to distinguish stores that use such tricks over ones that are genuine.
"Consumers should scan the market and check comparable products, which will give you an idea if the sale is genuine or not," says Dutta.
EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE BUYING HIGH-VALUE ITEMS
While apparels or shoes are great to buy in a sale as they are low-value items, the same may not be the case with costly consumer durables or other high-value items.
Experts suggest consumers should be careful when it comes to buying a television, refrigerator or air conditioner during an year-end sale. Many a time the product may be available without the packaging or could have a dent or the paint would have peeled off and so on. While a minor defect may be ok, it is important for a consumer to check whether the company is ready to provide full-service and warranty for a product sold at a sale.
Many stores do not offer replacement for products bought during a sale. So in case of apparel and shoes ensure what you are buying fits you, since it may be difficult to replace the product otherwise.
BE A JUDICIOUS BUYER
Many of us just get tempted and buy all the things that are on sale, irrespective of whether we will use them or not. Experts caution against such impulsive buying. Spread your purchases over a period of time, rather than buying everthing in just one day, they advise.
"Buy a product only if you are going to start using it within the next two or three months," says Aasheesh Mediratta, Director Sales, Fashionandyou. So if there is a "Buy two get one free" offer, see if you need three trousers or that many T-shirts.